Bradley

[Bradley @Neuralithic]

Over a week later, company account is still wrongfully suspended after our Starlink connection post. @premium @Support

[Bradley @Neuralithic]

Company account is still suspended... X team have not come back to us at all. Would really appreciate some help! @X not sure if my posts are making it to any X employees though

[Bradley @Neuralithic]

@gabriel1 you want my monday or tuesday?

[Bradley @Neuralithic]

@snuppydogg agreed, but it will it be possible... we just wont do it. diffusion will take longer

[Bradley @Neuralithic]

@willdepue @rbhar90 people forget this. chatgpt is only a few years old..

[Bradley @Neuralithic]

@TakiVan1 yes true

[Bradley @Neuralithic]

i think we get about five years of AI progress in 2027. 50% odds it lands somewhere between three and fifteen.

the reason is in the video: according to AI 2027, and METR, about half of AI research is already done by AI. by the end of 2027 we could expect expect 95%.

each model does more of the work on the next one, so the gap between them keeps shrinking. i'd also put ~40% on AI that beats humans at every cognitive task by the end of that next year.

a lot to fit into twelve months.

[Bradley @Neuralithic]

@zephyr_z9 yet we have only just begun.

Adoption and diffusion await. demand will be practically infinite

[Bradley @Neuralithic]

@iamgingertrash @RokoMijic 🎯

[Bradley @Neuralithic]

@iamgingertrash @RokoMijic Alternatively one must believe that this a show, and China is playing into Americas hand.

though i find this to be a more foolish statement tbh.

[Bradley @Neuralithic]

@iamgingertrash @RokoMijic The Chinese know ball.

US is floundering under its imbalance. there are only a few paths out long term.

what surprises me if just how simple the moves seem to be, and i’m astounded that, as you said, the US deep state misread them.

[Bradley @Neuralithic]

@quantizor 1000%, they’re in my cart right now! thanks!

[Bradley @Neuralithic]

https://t.co/v65Ex3Ei2d

eoy 2027.

[Andrew Curran @AndrewCurran_]

Sam McCandlish said five days ago that Anthropic would be releasing a report on the speed of internal progress, so we will finally get an update to this chart. I’m very interested to see what this number is now. METR thinks it is at 50%. AL4 is the last step before full RSI.

[Bradley @Neuralithic]

@dreamwieber this is so sick

[Bradley @Neuralithic]

@quantizor truly!! good books? i know of them but have yet to read.

[Bradley @Neuralithic]

@iamgingertrash yeah

[Bradley @Neuralithic]

it all depends on what “there” is. i don’t believe the models are just autocomplete right now. but if we define “there” as continual learning and human equivalent intelligence (embodied and distributed) then i’d still put money on 2029/2030.

but still.. it never really ends there does it

[Bradley @Neuralithic]

@quantizor potentially, though its hard to understand just how insane this could get. exponentials break the human mind, id put money on "ASI" in 2028 or 2029, not later.

Though, whatever comes later would still technically be ASI, or whatever its called after that

[Bradley @Neuralithic]

@geogristle jesus

[Bradley @Neuralithic]

@AndrewCurran_

[Bradley @Neuralithic]

slow until fast.

[VraserX e/acc @VraserX]

Holy shit. NVIDIA’s GR00T 2 is autonomously performing actual chemistry experiments with dexterous robotic hands, cleaning up after itself, and doing it all at REAL-TIME speed.

No cuts. No speedups.

We’re watching the physical world get automated in real time. This is insane.

[Bradley @Neuralithic]

@DKokotajlo ok bro