New Century Advisors

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[New Century Advisors @NewCenturyAdv]

What Exactly is Priced into TIPS? Given the importance that the inflation outlook has on the monetary policy outlook and on financial markets more broadly, it’s important to understand exactly what TIPS prices are telling us. #inflation #rates Read more: https://t.co/SUYDghmiyD

[New Century Advisors @NewCenturyAdv]

Lots of chatter about the inverted TIPS breakeven curve, but most of it is just the reflation/base-effects pig passing through the python.

5s/10s BEI curve:
Spot: -22bps
on 8/1*: -9bps

10s/30s BEI curve:
Spot: -7.5bps
on 8/1*: flat

(*using NCA's CPI forecast) #tips #inflation

[New Century Advisors @NewCenturyAdv]

and...

[New Century Advisors @NewCenturyAdv]

What could go wrong? #bonds #rates #Treasuries

[New Century Advisors @NewCenturyAdv]

The Fed wants its inflation mandate to be truly symmetric, but their new asymmetric employment mandate is much bigger news. Higher wages? Bring it on.

What does it mean? It means they would not have tightened in 2013, nor hiked in Dec’15, Dec’16, or in 2017 & 2018.#NoHikesEver

[New Century Advisors @NewCenturyAdv]

Core CPI +0.62% MoM, biggest jump since 1991. Half of the increase came from just 6 categories that combine for 12% of the total index. MV insurance +9.3% MoM. ‘Cyclical 5’ still down 4.3% YoY. More upside to come?

[New Century Advisors @NewCenturyAdv]

Good piece outlining the end of the disinflation cycle and the historic richness of deflation hedges. The other side of that same coin is the cheapness of inflation hedges. Investors are remiss if they aren't buying cheap insurance. #inflation #USTIPS https://t.co/xnRLhU63dW

[New Century Advisors @NewCenturyAdv]

Treasury ramps up issuance to fund massive COVID-19 programs but leaves TIPS issuance alone. If inflation is the answer to solving the growing debt problem, it makes sense to limit their liability. (Also makes sense to increase your inflation protection)

https://t.co/yrH4MalaoC

[New Century Advisors @NewCenturyAdv]

Mediocre growth, low inflation, still high USD net long positioning, and the FOMC forecast in line with market pricing could mean a tailwind for carry-related fixed income strategies for now.

[New Century Advisors @NewCenturyAdv]

NFP and ADP payroll trends have diverged by the most since the recovery. NFP +174k private jobs/mo last 6 months; ADP +120k. Neither tends to lead over time. Which is correct? Stay tuned…

[New Century Advisors @NewCenturyAdv]

Ellen Safir participated in Labaton Sucharow’s Women’s Initiative conference which convened outstanding women entrepreneurs in the investment industry and major allocators. The managers highlighted their experiences and challenges in growing their businesses. #investment #women

[New Century Advisors @NewCenturyAdv]

Great piece by @notthatECB. Inflation markets smell a policy error.

[EmilyCBarrett @notthatECB]

One of the Fed's goals for its rate cut was to lift the market’s sights on inflation. The initial reactions look not just disappointing, but near-disastrous https://t.co/DjpG2WmovA via @markets

[EmilyCBarrett @notthatECB]

One of the Fed's goals for its rate cut was to lift the market’s sights on inflation. The initial reactions look not just disappointing, but near-disastrous https://t.co/DjpG2WmovA via @markets

[New Century Advisors @NewCenturyAdv]

Think US 10-yr Treasuries at 2% is out of the question? German Bunds just hit all-time lows of -.20%. https://t.co/kvDqfaFdSd #rates #Bunds #tariffs

[New Century Advisors @NewCenturyAdv]

How wide could this go? #rates #Bunds #tariffs

[New Century Advisors @NewCenturyAdv]

A Fed re-pivot is clearly a big risk for markets. Back in 4Q'18, the equity market sell-off tightened financial conditions significantly, and the Fed was forced to reverse course. Can Powell risk being hawkish and expect a different outcome? #FederalReserve #Rates

[New Century Advisors @NewCenturyAdv]

This month we discuss:
- Debunking The Auto Delinquency Myth
- Index Deep Dive – How Changing Sector Composition is Driving Sector Performance
- Goodwill Hunting – M&A Chickens Coming Home to Roost
https://t.co/OkvLu4dJNj

[New Century Advisors @NewCenturyAdv]

@DriehausCapital Rate and equity vol also depressed vs. credit implied vol which is higher over the last few weeks #volatility #bonds

[New Century Advisors @NewCenturyAdv]

@zerohedge Fed pivot not seen in breakevens. 3.43% is just 30 days of April 2019 TIPS carry extrapolated ->1yr. Not a Fed/mkt view. 1y CPI Swap also bounced but much less so (and driven by oil). Better gauge is Fed’s 5y5y Fwd BEI. Off Jan 3rd lows but meh. #Fed #Inflation

[New Century Advisors @NewCenturyAdv]

Templeton’s EM Closed-End Fund (73% Sov, 9% Corp) trading at the smallest NAV discount since Aug ’14. During the 2014 period, the price and discount were moving together, now discount is falling faster than price rising which reflects improved sentiment. #EmergingMarkets $TEI