GetBusyLivingDude

Dad, Trader, Traveler, Adventurer, 3X IRONMAN

[Beth Kindig @Beth_Kindig]

Neoclouds are trying to strike a delicate balance between capturing AI demand and high debt.

Below, we examine if $CRWV and $NBIS are a durable extension of the AI trade or a fragile pressure point, $NVDA circular financing and hidden hyperscaler balance-sheet advantages.
https://t.co/GY3X7D4tvJ

[George Noble @gnoble79]

OPENAI IS FALLING APART IN REAL TIME

I've watched companies implode for decades.

This one has all the warning signs.

OpenAI declared "Code Red" in December.

Altman sent an internal memo telling employees to drop everything because Google's Gemini 3 is eating their lunch. Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff publicly ditched ChatGPT for Gemini after using it for two hours.

ChatGPT traffic fell in November. Second month-over-month decline of 2025. Meanwhile Gemini jumped to 650 million monthly active users.

The company that was supposed to build AGI can't keep its chatbot competitive.

But the real story is the money...

OpenAI lost $12 BILLION in a single quarter according to Microsoft's own fiscal disclosures.

Deutsche Bank estimates $143 billion in cumulative negative cash flow before the company turns profitable.

Their analysts put it bluntly: "No startup in history has operated with losses on anything approaching this scale."

They're burning $15 million per day on Sora alone.

$5 billion annually to generate copyright-infringing memes.

Even Sora's lead engineer admitted the "economics are currently completely unsustainable."

Here's the big math problem nobody wants to discuss:

It's going to cost 5x the energy and money to make these models 2x better.

The low-hanging fruit is gone.

Every incremental improvement now requires exponentially more compute, more data centers, more power.

Reports suggest OpenAI's large training runs in 2025 failed to produce models better than prior versions.

GPT-5 launched to widespread disappointment. Users called it "underwhelming" and "horrible." OpenAI had to restore GPT-4o within 24 hours because users preferred the old model.

Altman had promised GPT-5 would make GPT-4 feel "mildly embarrassing." Instead, users complained it was worse at basic math and geography.

They've released GPT-5.1, GPT-5.2 since.

Same complaints each time: too corporate, too safe, robotic, boring.

The talent exodus makes this even worse:

CTO Mira Murati. Gone.
Chief Research Officer Bob McGrew. Gone.
Chief Scientist Ilya Sutskever. Gone.
President Greg Brockman. Gone.

Half the AI safety team departed. Multiple executives reportedly cited "psychological abuse" under Altman's leadership.

And now Elon Musk is suing for up to $134 billion.

A federal judge just ruled the case goes to jury trial in April. There's "plenty of evidence" that OpenAI's leaders promised to maintain the nonprofit structure that Musk funded.

Musk provided $38 million in early funding based on those assurances. Now he wants his share of the $500 billion valuation.

OpenAI called it "harassment." But the judge disagreed.

Here's what I think happens next:

The AI hype cycle is peaking.

The diminishing returns are becoming impossible to hide.

Competitors are catching up.

The lawsuits are piling up.

OpenAI needs to generate $200 billion in annual revenue by 2030 to justify their projections.

That's 15x growth in five years while costs keep exploding.

Even Sam Altman admitted investors are "overexcited" about AI.

His exact words: "Someone is going to lose a phenomenal amount of money."

If I were running an AI startup with good traction right now, I'd be looking for an exit. Sell into the hype before the music stops.

My positioning:

I'm not touching OpenAI-adjacent plays at these valuations. The risk profile is astronomical.

If you're exposed to the Magnificent 7 through AI infrastructure bets, consider trimming. The gap between promised revolution and delivered reality has never been wider.

The smart money is rotating into sectors where valuations actually reflect fundamentals.

Small and mid-caps are trading near decade lows relative to Big Tech while earnings growth is only marginally lower.

Markets can price risk. But they can't price chaos.

And OpenAI is chaos dressed up in a $500 billion valuation.

[MLB @MLB]

IT'S GONE
IT'S GONE
IT'S GONE
IT'S GONE
FREDDIE FREEMAN #WALKOFF GRAND SLAM

[unusual_whales @unusual_whales]

Well this is unusual.

This is Jared Bernstein, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, the main agency advising Biden on economic policy, from the documentary: Finding the Money.

He seems unable to communicate how the US monetary system works, despite being an advisor on it to the president.

[GetBusyLivingDude @NewHopeDaddy]

Where the surf meets the turf … Local’s Summer 🐕

[Tennis Channel @TennisChannel]

11 years later, this 8-year-old girl is the #USOpen champion!!!

[US Open Tennis @usopen]

YOU GO COCO!

[GetBusyLivingDude @NewHopeDaddy]

@atptour Why are players allowed to grab rackets from their coaches in the stands? @usopen

[GetBusyLivingDude @NewHopeDaddy]

@coastnewsgroup What happened here at D Street?

[TIME @TIME]

Elon Musk's fears about AI have led to battles with Google's Larry Page and OpenAI's Sam Altman.

@WalterIsaacson reports on Musk's longstanding concerns about AI—and the lengths he's going to control its future https://t.co/GY1D4568jU

[GetBusyLivingDude @NewHopeDaddy]

@JG_Nuke @fleckcap Thoughts on this? Have you dug into it? Thx

[GetBusyLivingDude @NewHopeDaddy]

Interesting read on $NVDA https://t.co/ua2hUWEqyK

[GetBusyLivingDude @NewHopeDaddy]

#BlueMoon #Blue_Moon

[Marc Cohodes @AlderLaneEggs]

This Charlatan reminds me of @BillAckman

[GetBusyLivingDude @NewHopeDaddy]

@iancassel @AlderLaneEggs $ENVX AI creates a need for a more efficient power source. #AI

[Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla]

"Something that stood out to us was the lack of institutional demand on our desk in $NVDA post earnings (.. in stark contrast to last quarter, where we had 10+ buyers on our desk after hours .. a reflection of much fuller institutional positioning this time around)."

GS desk

[GetBusyLivingDude @NewHopeDaddy]

@Benioff @HawaiiCounty @HFFA1463 @JeffBezos donated $100 million

[GetBusyLivingDude @NewHopeDaddy]

@yashar @JeffBezos Heck ya!

[GetBusyLivingDude @NewHopeDaddy]

@Austen @Benioff @BarackObama @Oprah What are you powerful wealthy people doing right now to make difference? #Maui #MauiStrong

[GetBusyLivingDude @NewHopeDaddy]

@Benioff @HawaiiCounty @HFFA1463 I would hope that you spend your wealth on rebuilding #Maui If you truly believe in #OHANA as you preach, make a difference, raise funds, match it and get the rebuild started as soon as possible. Rescue & Rebuild @Benioff