Olivia
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Trade smarter, not harder. AI-powered daily SPX predictions 📌 Not financial advice.
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Joined March 2026
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A personal note.
Three years ago I started posting my levels out of pure passion, first in a small WhatsApp group, then here on X. I am not a full time trader, just someone who loves reading the market and wanted to share what I saw each morning.
Lately I have been struggling to balance the early mornings here with the two jobs that matter most, my kids and my work. Something had to give, and it will not be them.
So I am taking a break from the daily posts.
Thank you to every one of you who subscribed, followed, corrected me, tested the levels, and sent a kind word on the hard days. From a WhatsApp group to all of you, this community gave a passion project more support than I ever imagined it would find.
Keep trading the levels the way we always did. Wait for the reaction, respect the first half hour, and never risk what you cannot lose.
If you need anything or want to reach me, leave a comment at https://t.co/BPqq7RI4uX. When I get a chance, I will reply.
Good luck out there. I will be watching the pins from the quiet side of the screen.
- NextPin
September 21 into the last hour. SPX 7773 up one hundred and twenty three, NDX 30483 up eight hundred and thirty eight.
SPX has not traded below its opening print at 7693. SPX is 3 off its high. NDX has not traded below its opening print at 29947. NDX is 9 off its high.
SPX LEVELS
7790 the outer edge of what is left of the day
7782 where the market starts running out of room above
7776 the high of the day
7768 the floor under the current range
7756 the outer edge below
7715 the thin edge below, a move through here travels
7691 the low of the day
7651 yesterday's close
Only if 7778 crosses and holds look above to 7782 then 7790.
Only if 7768 breaks look below to 7764 then 7756.
NDX LEVELS
30554 the outer edge of what is left of the day
30519 where the market starts running out of room above
30491 the high of the day
30456 the floor under the current range
30404 the outer edge below
30380 the magnet, price keeps coming back to it
29933 the low of the day
29644 yesterday's close
Only if 30503 crosses and holds look above to 30519 then 30554.
Only if 30456 breaks look below to 30439 then 30404.
On volatility, VIX up 0.21 at 15.02, the nine day up 0.98 at 13.25, VVIX down 1.24 at 86.14, the Nasdaq gauge up 1.28 at 20.57.
These levels are a read on the next hour, not a call on the close. A headline lands and they are gone.
Not financial advice.
$SPX $NDX #SPX #NDX #SPXOptions #0DTE #DayTrading #VIX
September 21 afternoon. SPX 7760 up one hundred and nine, NDX 30410 up seven hundred and sixty six.
SPX has not traded below its opening print at 7693. SPX is 2 off its high. NDX has not traded below its opening print at 29947. NDX is 9 off its high.
SPX LEVELS
7775 the outer edge of what is left of the day
7768 where the market starts running out of room above
7762 the high of the day
7755 the magnet, price keeps coming back to it
7743 the outer edge below
7715 the thin edge below, a move through here travels
7691 the low of the day
7651 yesterday's close
Only if 7764 crosses and holds look above to 7768 then 7775.
Only if 7754 breaks look below to 7750 then 7743.
NDX LEVELS
30488 the outer edge of what is left of the day
30449 where the market starts running out of room above
30419 the high of the day
30390 the thin edge above, a move through here travels
30365 the thin edge below, a move through here travels
30323 the outer edge below
29933 the low of the day
29644 yesterday's close
Only if 30432 crosses and holds look above to 30449 then 30488.
Only if 30380 breaks look below to 30363 then 30323.
On volatility, VIX up 0.25 at 15.06, the nine day up 1.15 at 13.42, VVIX down 1.19 at 86.19, the Nasdaq gauge up 1.23 at 20.52.
These levels are a read on the next hour, not a call on the close. A headline lands and they are gone.
Not financial advice.
$SPX $NDX #SPX #NDX #SPXOptions #0DTE #DayTrading #VIX
September 21 afternoon. SPX 7754 up one hundred and four, NDX 30379 up seven hundred and thirty five.
SPX has not traded below its opening print at 7693. SPX is 3 off its high. NDX has not traded below its opening print at 29947. NDX is 24 off its high.
SPX LEVELS
7775 the outer edge of what is left of the day
7765 where the market starts running out of room above
7757 the high of the day
7747 the floor under the current range
7732 the outer edge below
7720 the magnet, price keeps coming back to it
7691 the low of the day
7651 yesterday's close
Only if 7761 crosses and holds look above to 7765 then 7775.
Only if 7747 breaks look below to 7743 then 7732.
NDX LEVELS
30487 the outer edge of what is left of the day
30435 where the market starts running out of room above
30411 the lid on the current range
30375 the magnet, price keeps coming back to it
30343 the floor under the current range
30319 where it starts running out of room below
30267 the outer edge below
29933 the low of the day
29644 yesterday's close
Only if 30411 crosses and holds look above to 30435 then 30487.
Only if 30343 breaks look below to 30319 then 30267.
On volatility, VIX up 0.21 at 15.02, the nine day up 1.15 at 13.42, VVIX down 0.72 at 86.66, the Nasdaq gauge up 1.13 at 20.42.
These levels are a read on the next hour, not a call on the close. A headline lands and they are gone.
Not financial advice.
$SPX $NDX #SPX #NDX #SPXOptions #0DTE #DayTrading #VIX
September 21 midday. SPX 7736 up eighty six, NDX 30304 up six hundred and sixty.
SPX has not traded below its opening print at 7693. SPX is 7 off its high. NDX has not traded below its opening print at 29947. NDX is 32 off its high.
SPX LEVELS
7757 the outer edge of what is left of the day
7747 where the market starts running out of room above
7729 the floor under the current range
7720 the magnet, price keeps coming back to it
7714 the outer edge below
7691 the low of the day
7651 yesterday's close
Only if 7742 crosses and holds look above to 7747 then 7757.
Only if 7729 breaks look below to 7724 then 7714.
NDX LEVELS
30417 the outer edge of what is left of the day
30363 where the market starts running out of room above
30338 the lid on the current range
30275 the magnet, price keeps coming back to it
30243 where it starts running out of room below
30188 the outer edge below
29933 the low of the day
29644 yesterday's close
Only if 30338 crosses and holds look above to 30363 then 30417.
Only if 30267 breaks look below to 30243 then 30188.
On volatility, VIX up 0.06 at 14.87, the nine day up 0.95 at 13.22, VVIX down 1.04 at 86.34, the Nasdaq gauge up 0.97 at 20.26.
These levels are a read on the next hour, not a call on the close. A headline lands and they are gone.
Not financial advice.
$SPX $NDX #SPX #NDX #SPXOptions #0DTE #DayTrading #VIX
September 21 midday. SPX 7723 up seventy three, NDX 30258 up six hundred and fourteen.
SPX has not traded below its opening print at 7693. SPX is 3 off its high. NDX has not traded below its opening print at 29947. NDX is -3 off its high.
SPX LEVELS
7747 the outer edge of what is left of the day
7735 where the market starts running out of room above
7730 the lid on the current range
7720 the magnet, price keeps coming back to it
7711 where it starts running out of room below
7699 the outer edge below
7691 the low of the day
7651 yesterday's close
Only if 7730 crosses and holds look above to 7735 then 7747.
Only if 7716 breaks look below to 7711 then 7699.
NDX LEVELS
30397 the outer edge of what is left of the day
30331 where the market starts running out of room above
30300 the lid on the current range
30255 the high of the day
30230 the magnet, price keeps coming back to it
30183 where it starts running out of room below
30117 the outer edge below
29933 the low of the day
29644 yesterday's close
Only if 30300 crosses and holds look above to 30331 then 30397.
Only if 30213 breaks look below to 30183 then 30117.
On volatility, VIX down 0.21 at 14.60, the nine day up 0.47 at 12.74, VVIX down 1.33 at 86.05, the Nasdaq gauge up 0.73 at 20.02. VIX, the nine day and VVIX are sitting on their session lows.
These levels are a read on the next hour, not a call on the close. A headline lands and they are gone.
Not financial advice.
$SPX $NDX #SPX #NDX #SPXOptions #0DTE #DayTrading #VIX
SPX, ES, NQ and NDX 0DTE Pinboard - Monday September 21 · THE DIPLOMACY GAP
The map's work got done in the dark. Iran's President Pezeshkian leads a delegation to the UN tomorrow, President Trump says he is open to meeting him, and the futures spent the whole night buying the hope: fifty points of SPX gap, straight through Friday's pin, the rejection band that turned back four September rallies, and onto the defended 7700 itself. Oil broke under 97, global yields fell hard, and the VIX barely moved at 14.87, a fear market refusing to price the fear. The edges are still sharp: Trump's Sunday framing was a deal, or wiping Iran out, or letting its economy rot, and Iran's military warns of painful retaliation against a strike it says is being prepared. The tape has chosen which half to believe.
The week's diplomacy stack builds daily from here: Bessent called his weekend meeting with China's vice premier a success and is on air this morning, the Greenland security deal gets signed at the UN this week, Pezeshkian speaks tomorrow, and the Trump and Xi summit lands Wednesday. Goolsbee opened the Fed's speaking week before the bell, ten more speeches follow. Nothing else is scheduled today: the tape and the diplomacy run the day.
THE NUMBERS
SPX Friday: Open 7657.17, the high, on the morning settlement | Low 7610.52 at 12:25 | Close 7650.50 (0.17% higher), half a point from the strike the books had chosen
NDX Friday: Open 29529.64 | High 29647.80 | Low 29371.89 | Close 29644.17 (0.67% higher)
ES December, Friday: Open 7710.00 | High 7718.25 | Low 7675.00 | Close 7712.25 | busiest price 7712 | value 7685 to 7715
NQ December, Friday: Open 29814.00 | High 29937.75 | Low 29659.25 | Close 29916.50 | busiest price 29730 | value 29710 to 29920
Overnight ES: reopen 7718.50, high 7769.00 at 6:34 AM · low 7713.75 · that is SPX 7703 down to 7648, the gap built all night without a real dip
Overnight NQ: high 30266.75 · low 29904.00 · that is NDX 29983 down to 29620
The futures point to SPX near 7700 and NDX near 29950 before the open.
Offsets: ES +66, NQ +284, the roll shaken numbers, but two independent routes agree on them this morning within two points. Confirm both at the open before trusting any conversion.
VIX: 14.87 premarket, nearly unmoved through a fifty point gap | Friday closed 14.81 | VIX9D 12.27 | VIX1D 11.42 | VVIX 87.38
VIX gates: support 14.80, Friday's low, uncharted since summer below it. Warnings 15.63, then 15.84, the old floor now flipped overhead.
WTI 97.76 after printing under 97, the diplomacy discount | Gold 4383, sold with the fear | 10 year easing off 5 percent
AM straddle: ±22.5 around 7700 → 7678 to 7723 (ES 7744 to 7789)
Max pain: 7645 | Most positions: 7700
AVERAGES
SPX SMA: 5D 7609 | 10D 7632 | 20D 7659 | 50D 7617
SPX EMA: 5D 7625 | 10D 7633 | 20D 7645 | 50D 7605
NDX SMA: 5D 29220 | 10D 29287 | 20D 29305 | 50D 29167
NDX EMA: 5D 29354 | 10D 29312 | 20D 29311 | 50D 29227
Every average on both boards is now support. The nearest S&P line is the 20 day at 7659, forty points beneath the tape, the first landmark of any real pullback.
THE MONDAY BOOK
Friday's breakout bet cashed in the dark: the heavy bought calls at 7675 are gone from the book, replaced by small sellers, the position that paid for the band to break took its fifty points and left. The book that remains is built around where the tape now stands. At 7700, put sellers still defend the strike with bought calls beside them, the books' opening bet became the opening price. Overhead, a seller band runs 7705 to 7720 with bought calls wedged inside it at 7715, and past the band sits the new breakout bet: the biggest bought calls of the board at 7725, fresh money already positioned for the next fifty. Underfoot, bought calls at 7695 give the tape immediate fuel, and below, the overnight built a real stand at 7610, heavy put sellers.
PIVOT 7700 (ES 7766) · the defended strike, where the gap landed
TRIGGER 7678 (ES 7744) · BEARISH BELOW · the bottom of the expected range
CONFIRMATION 7725 (ES 7791) · a close through the band, onto the new bet
FLOOR 7610 (ES 7676) · the overnight stand
THE LEVELS · SPX AND ES (December contract, ES at +66)
🔵 7725 · ES 7791 · the new breakout bet, the biggest bought calls of the board, the range top 7723 just under it · CONFIRMATION above
🔴 7705-7720 · ES 7771-7786 · the seller band, three blocks with bought calls wedged at 7715
🔵 7700 · ES 7766 · PIVOT · the defended strike, put sellers with bought calls, where the gap landed
🔵 7695 · ES 7761 · bought calls underfoot, immediate fuel
🟡 7678 · ES 7744 · TRIGGER, BEARISH BELOW · bottom of the expected range, the old bet's strike at 7675 just beneath it
🟡 7659 · ES 7725 · the 20 day average, the top of the support stack, forty points below
🟡 7650-7640 · ES 7716-7706 · the memory shelf: where Friday pinned, where the overnight bottomed, where the 20 day EMA waits
🟢 7610 · ES 7676 · FLOOR · the overnight stand, heavy put sellers built on last week's double low, bounced Thursday and Friday
Below 7610: 7605-7585, 7560, 7555.
PATH UP: hold the pivot and the fight is immediate: the seller band at 7705 to 7720 is the only structure between the tape and the new bet. Acceptance through the band, and CONFIRMATION on a close above 7725, where fresh money is already positioned for the next leg. On a twenty nine basis point morning, that is the strong day, not the base case: the base case is the band holding and the tape orbiting the pivot.
PATH DOWN: lose the pivot and 7695's fuel burns first. BEARISH BELOW 7678, and the first catch is the 20 day line at 7659, then the memory shelf at 7650 to 7640, Friday's whole battlefield with the overnight low inside it, where a give back of the gap gets judged: dip or verdict. Through the shelf, the overnight stand at 7610 is the day's real bounce watch and the map's last drawn line: last week's double low lives there, and the put sellers built on top of it.
Note: the paths describe how the day can travel, not what to trade. Gap days above all: let the first half hour pick its direction, work from the levels, wait for a reaction, and plan there.
THE LEVELS · NDX AND NQ (December contract, NQ at +284, positioning from the QQQ book)
The Nasdaq conquered five call walls in the dark, including the big one at 29790, and now stands forty five points under the giant of the board: the wall at 29995.
🔴 29995 · NQ 30279 · the giant call wall, the biggest position of the Nasdaq board, the day's ceiling
🔴 29954-29913 · NQ 30238-30197 · call steps on the giant's approach, the futures pointing inside them
🟡 29790 · NQ 30074 · the big conquered wall, the gap's base, the first retest watch
🟢 29626-29585 · NQ 29910-29869 · a two sided pair, calls and puts together
🟢 29544-29461 · NQ 29828-29745 · a heavy two way shelf across three strikes
🟡 29410 · NQ 29694 · the flip line: below it moves speed up instead of slowing
🟢 29379 · NQ 29663 · the monster put wall, the heaviest position of the board's put side
Below 29379: 29338-29215, 29174, 28968-28763.
The Nasdaq note: the day is a question about one wall. The tape opens inside the call steps on the giant's approach, forty five points under the biggest sellers of the board at 29995. Below, the first retest watch is the gap's base at 29790, then two way structure at every step down to the flip line at 29410, floors that slow a retreat. Below the flip line the character inverts, with the monster put wall the first catch. Acceptance at the giant on a diplomacy day would be the week's opening statement; rejection sends the tape back to its own gap.
THE STRING · paste into the NextPin Pinboard indicator on TradingView
D=0921;REF=7700;P=7700;T=7678;C=7725;AMS=7678-7723;ON=7648-7703;FLR=7610;EX=7720@R@seller-band,7695@F@fuel-underfoot,7659@Y@average-stack-top,7650@Y@memory-shelf,7640@Y@shelf-floor;VIX=14.80,14.00,15.63
Indicator: https://t.co/gH3o6Za7jU
Not financial advice. Verify levels before trading.
$SPX #SPX #SPXOptions #0DTE #OptionsTrading $ES_F $NQ_F $QQQ #NDX #VIX #FinTwit
NEXTPIN DAILY BRIEF | SPX, ES, NQ, NDX | Monday September 21 2026 · AFTER THE WITCHING
The week runs on three things: eleven Fed speeches in five days, the first since the hike, with Williams alone speaking three times and Goolsbee opening Monday before the bell; President Trump and President Xi at the summit table Wednesday, with the state dinner Thursday night and half of Wall Street's chief executives in the room; and the reset of the books themselves. Friday's triple witching settled roughly a fifth of all US options exposure, so this week opens with the thinnest positioning since June and the freest tape in months. Chair Warsh called the hike the removal of "a dose of accommodation" in the tersest Fed statement since 2007, and with no major data until Wednesday's PMIs, the speeches are the data: eleven chances to define what a dose means.
The weekend gave the reopen a split story. On one side, the first real diplomatic opening of the war: Tehran has conveyed terms for talks to the White House through Qatari mediators, an end to the fighting on all fronts, the release of frozen assets, and the lifting of the naval blockade, and reports say Beijing has privately urged Iran to rein in the Houthis. On the other, Saudi forces say they foiled an attack on Riyadh, the October crude cutoff to Europe still looms with repairs running six to eight weeks and China quietly rebuilding its crude reserves, President Trump announced a large military presence in Greenland, and reports say the administration is weighing limits on US diesel exports, a decision that would likely wait until after the summit. The letters are moving and so are the drones.
On Friday's volatility, from the decomposition: the drop was mostly real, traders selling hedges across the board into the weekend on top of the drift from the rally, and the market enters the week carrying fewer hedges than at any point since August. One detail ran the other way: the deepest crash hedges were the only thing bought on Friday, quietly and in small size. And the positioning surveys ended the week at crowded long extremes, few hedges and full boats together. The calm is chosen. It is not unanimous.
THE NUMBERS
SPX Friday: Open 7657.17, the high, on the morning settlement | Low 7610.52 at 12:25 | Close 7650.50 (0.17% higher), half a point from the strike the afternoon books had chosen
NDX Friday: Open 29529.64 | High 29647.80 | Low 29371.89 | Close 29644.17 (0.67% higher), through its big wall
ES December, Friday: Open 7710.00 | High 7718.25 | Low 7675.00 | Close 7712.25 | busiest price 7712 | value 7685 to 7715
NQ December, Friday: Open 29814.00 | High 29937.75 | Low 29659.25 | Close 29916.50 | busiest price 29730 | value 29710 to 29920
The week: SPX down 0.1 percent, Dow down 1.7 percent, Nasdaq up 0.7 percent.
Offsets: ES +66, NQ +284. The quarterly roll moved both sharply in Friday's final minutes and the readings disagree with themselves, so treat all weekend futures arithmetic as approximate. We re measure both at tonight's reopen and again at Monday's open before any conversion is trusted.
The first tell comes at tonight's reopen: hold Friday's futures value, 7685 to 7715 on ES, and the drift case is on. Rejection below it, respect how little the new book holds underneath.
VIX: 14.81 Friday close, the lowest since August | VIX9D 12.27 | VIX1D 11.42 | VVIX 87.38
VIX gates: support 14.80, Friday's low, uncharted since summer below it. Warnings 15.63, Friday's high, then 15.84, the old floor now flipped overhead: a trade through it says the week broke the calm.
WTI near 100 after three days of losses | Brent 102.57 | Gold 4421 | 10 year near 5 percent
Monday's expected range, priced at Friday's close: ±38 → 7613 to 7688 (ES 7679 to 7754), the cheapest day of the week at single digit volatility. The morning straddle updates it.
Max pain: 7670 | Most positions: 7700
NDX Monday range: ±208 → 29436 to 29853 (NQ 29720 to 30137)
The week's pricing, with each day's closing at the money volatility beside it: Monday ±38 (8.3%), Tuesday ±54 (9.6%), Wednesday ±65 into the summit (10.2%), Thursday ±74 (10.7%), Friday ±86 (11.1%), and the month end expiration on 9/30 at ±118 (10.9%), with the Nasdaq's month end corridor at ±1049, three and a half percent wide. The market prices Monday dead, builds premium into the summit, and keeps building after it: the fear is the follow through, not the handshake. If energy jumps again, rates move fast, and stocks answer to rates this year.
THE CALENDAR
Monday: Fed Goolsbee at 6:30 AM, before the open, the Fed's first word since the hike. Chicago Fed at 8:30. Nothing else scheduled: the tape and the war run the day.
Tuesday: ADP weekly 8:15, Richmond Fed 10:00, then the parade: Williams 10:05, Jefferson 10:20, Barkin 1:00 beside the 2 year auction.
Wednesday: THE TRUMP AND XI SUMMIT. Flash PMIs 9:45, Barr 10:05, oil inventories 10:30, the 5 year auction at 1:00.
Thursday: the state dinner. Williams 4:10 AM, Barkin 8:00, jobless claims 8:30, Hammack 8:50, new home sales 10:00, Paulson 10:10, the 7 year auction at 1:00, the Fed balance sheet 4:30. Costco reports after the close, the week's one big print, ±3.6% priced.
Friday: Williams again at 5:15 AM, durable goods 8:30, Michigan sentiment and inflation expectations 10:00, Hammack 2:00.
Ahead: the SAVE deadline Monday 9/29, then MONTH END AND QUARTER END EXPIRATION Wednesday 9/30.
On the reset, in plain terms: the big option positions that anchored the summer died at Friday's settlements. Those anchors were brakes, and Monday opens with them removed and fresh positions only starting to build. The tape moves easier in both directions than it has all month, in the first week of a hiking cycle, with a summit in the middle.
MONDAY'S CHANCES
I am testing this section. Treat the numbers as an experiment, not a forecast, and do not plan trades on them.
What the tape can touch, overnight or during the day:
7659 -> 70% · the magnet, almost any flat or up day tags it
7675 -> 45% · the band's heart, where the breakout bet sits
7685 -> 30% · the range top's doorstep, a strong but normal day
7700 -> 10% · the defended strike, chase territory
7630 -> 55% · the first fuel's edge
7613 -> 35% · the trigger
7585 -> 15% · the deep fuel
7560 -> 8% · the floor
Where Monday may close:
38% -> 7640 to 7659 · the pin holds the close
19% -> 7614 to 7639 · a soft day the defense held
18% -> 7660 to 7687 · the grind sticks in the band
16% -> 7613 or lower · the break, and moves speed up down there
9% -> 7688 or higher · the chase, through the band to the top
Touching a level during the day is far more common than settling there: most Mondays visit two or three of the touch lines and still close at the pin.
The reopen and the morning book move these weights before the bell.
AVERAGES
SPX SMA: 5D 7609 | 10D 7632 | 20D 7659 | 50D 7617
SPX EMA: 5D 7625 | 10D 7633 | 20D 7645 | 50D 7605
NDX SMA: 5D 29220 | 10D 29287 | 20D 29305 | 50D 29167
NDX EMA: 5D 29354 | 10D 29312 | 20D 29311 | 50D 29227
Friday closed above every S&P average except the 20 day SMA at 7659, the first magnet overhead, with the reclaimed stack now support beneath: 7645, 7633, 7625, and the 50 day lines at 7605 to 7617. The Nasdaq closed above all eight of its lines.
THE MONDAY BOOK
Monday trades under two books at once: its own, and Tuesday's, whose positions are alive and hedged all session. Stacked together they sharpen the map, and their arithmetic points one place: taken as a whole, the two days' positions are worth most to their holders if Monday settles at 7650, and the sellers' zone from 7640 to 7660 is built to slow every move away from it. Below 7613 that character flips, and moves speed up instead of slowing. The pin is now a complex: sellers of both calls and puts across 7650, 7645 and 7640, the heaviest structure of the stack, built to hold price at Friday's close. Fifty points up, the escape is funded: heavy bought calls at 7675 with put sellers beneath them on the same strike, a strongly bullish position paid for inside the band that rejected four rallies this month, with more bought calls at 7695 and the defended strike at 7700 behind it. Sellers at 7670 stand right under the bet, and the doorstep above has thinned to a single seller at 7705. Below the market, the first fuel moved up: heavy bought puts at 7620 and 7615, more at 7595 and 7585, with a small stand at 7600 between them, a real stand now at 7575, sold both ways, and the floor at 7560 with its trapdoor at 7555.
PIVOT 7650 (ES 7716) · the pin complex, sold both ways across three strikes, the stack's anchor
TRIGGER 7613 (ES 7679) · BEARISH BELOW · the bottom of Monday's range
CONFIRMATION 7710 (ES 7776) · a close past the last seller at 7705
FLOOR 7560 (ES 7626) · the last stand, trapdoor at 7555 beneath it
THE LEVELS · SPX AND ES (December contract, ES at +66)
🔴 7705 · ES 7771 · the last call sellers before open air · CONFIRMATION above 7710
🔵 7700 · ES 7766 · put sellers and call buyers together, a bet the week reaches this price
🔵 7695 · ES 7761 · bought calls, fuel into the strike above
🟡 7688 · ES 7754 · top of Monday's expected range
🔵 7675 · ES 7741 · the breakout bet, heavy bought calls inside the band that rejected four rallies this month
🔴 7670 · ES 7736 · call sellers, the bet's gatekeeper
🟡 7659 · ES 7725 · the 20 day average, the first magnet overhead
🟢 7650-7640 · ES 7716-7706 · PIVOT at 7650 · the pin complex, calls and puts sold across all three strikes, a bet the day finishes here
🔵 7620-7615 · ES 7686-7681 · heavy bought puts, the first fuel below the pin
🟡 7613-7605 · ES 7679-7671 · TRIGGER at 7613, BEARISH BELOW · range bottom, the last defense at 7610 and 7605, Friday's low on the pair
🔵 7595-7585 · ES 7661-7651 · bought puts, the deep fuel, heaviest at 7585, a small stand at 7600 above
🟢 7575 · ES 7641 · calls and puts sold together, a quiet stand in the fall's path
🟢 7560 · ES 7626 · FLOOR · the last stand, a trapdoor of bought puts at 7555 directly beneath it
PATH UP: hold the pin complex and everything from 7659 into the low 7680s is one fight: the last unreclaimed average, the sellers at 7670, and the band of highs that rejected four rallies this month. The difference this time: someone has paid for the band to break, the bought calls at 7675 sit inside it. Clear the fight, and the fuel at 7695 carries into the defended strike at 7700: a quiet Monday stalls under it, a strong one takes the last seller at 7705. CONFIRMATION on a close above 7710, and past that is beyond the drawn map.
PATH DOWN: lose the pin complex and the fuel at 7620 to 7615 burns immediately. BEARISH BELOW 7613: one last defense at 7610 to 7605, then the fall speeds through the lower fuel to the stand at 7575, the bounce watch, and the floor at 7560 behind it, the map's last drawn line, with a trapdoor of bought puts directly beneath. A thin stack cuts both ways: the same emptiness that lets Monday drift lets it fall.
Note: the paths describe how the day can travel, not what to trade. Work from the levels, wait for price to reach one and show a reaction, and plan the trade there.
THE LEVELS · NDX AND NQ (December contract, NQ at +284, positioning from the QQQ book)
The Nasdaq's first book after the triple witch is thin too, and its shape is different: the big new position is protective, a put wall at 29379, while the inherited calls sit under the tape.
🔴 30201 · NQ 30485 · the far call wall, the week's fence
🟡 29853 · NQ 30137 · top of Monday's expected range
🔴 29749 · NQ 30033 · the first call wall overhead
🟡 29644 · NQ 29928 · Friday's close, above every average
🔴 29585-29502 · NQ 29869-29786 · call sellers under the tape at both strikes, a bet the strength fades
🟡 29436 · NQ 29720 · bottom of Monday's expected range
🟢 29379 · NQ 29663 · the big put wall, the week's first stand, the 5 day EMA just beneath it
🟡 29312-29287 · NQ 29596-29571 · the 10 and 20 day lines bunched together
🟢 29174 · NQ 29458 · put wall
🟢 28763-28640 · NQ 29047-28924 · deep put walls, the floor pair, a heavier wall at 28475 beneath them
The Nasdaq note: the tape opens above everything, with the nearest real wall a hundred points up at 29749 and the sellers beneath it betting the strength fades. A quiet Monday drifts between the close and that wall. Fresh money bought AI chip calls into October this week, a bet the sector leads through the summit. A fall has the big put wall at 29379 as its first catch, with the bunched averages right behind it: that zone, 29287 to 29379, is where any Monday dip gets decided.
The full Pinboard with the morning straddle, fresh positioning and the indicator string publishes Monday morning.
Not financial advice. Verify levels before trading.
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SPX, ES, NQ and NDX 0DTE Pinboard - Friday September 18 · TRIPLE WITCHING
Triple witching day. Quarterly stock options, index options and futures all expire together, and by some estimates roughly a fifth of all outstanding US options exposure dies today. The huge quarterly index contracts settle on the opening prints and are gone by 9:35, which can make the first minutes strange, and everything after that belongs to the afternoon book: the positions that settle at the 4:00 close, the ones this map is built from. Trade the day with extra care: anchors that steered price all quarter come off today, liquidity thins around the settlement windows, and moves can run without news. Fed Bowman speaks at 9:30, into the open.
The overnight came in two acts. First the Bank of Japan raised rates a quarter point to 1.25 percent, the highest since 1995, on a split 7 to 2 vote, and the markets read the split as soft: the yen weakened past 157, Japanese yields fell, the Nikkei rallied, and the futures ran to 7669 in SPX terms at 3:31 AM. Then at 7:05 the Saudi headline hit: Riyadh told Europe's refiners they will get no crude next month, and the futures gave back the BoJ pop within the hour. The strange detail: oil itself keeps falling, a third straight day, WTI briefly under 100, because Saudi crude is reportedly reaching Asian buyers again by ship through Oman. The barrels are moving, Europe just is not getting them.
Thursday graded on the line: the rally's high printed 7646.86 at 3:54, rejected at the 7645 average pair the morning note flagged, and the close at 7637.76, up 1.14 percent, sat right beneath it. The Nasdaq rose 1.73 percent through both of its mapped walls. And the volatility market emptied out: the VIX collapsed to 15.44, through every support on the board, with the nine day index down at 13.39. The insurance that was rebuilt for the Fed is gone, and today its quarterly contracts expire.
EVENTS AND DATES
9/18 9:30 AM -> Fed Bowman speech, into the open
9/18 open -> quarterly index contracts settle on the opening prints
9/18 4:00 PM -> the afternoon book settles on the close
9/30 -> month end and quarter end expiration, the fund rebalancing date
THE NUMBERS
SPX Thursday: Open 7631.44 | High 7646.86 at 3:54 | Low 7611.81 at 10:11 | Close 7637.76 (1.14% higher)
NDX Thursday: Open 29401.54 | High 29494.95 | Low 29305.90 | Close 29446.98 (1.73% higher)
ES December, Thursday: Open 7713.50 | High 7716.25 | Low 7680.50 | Close 7707.50 | busiest price 7708 | value 7692 to 7712
NQ December, Thursday: Open 29718.25 | High 29793.25 | Low 29605.75 | Close 29745.00 | busiest price 29720 | value 29660 to 29760
Overnight ES: high 7739.25 at 3:31 on the BoJ · low 7696.00 · that is SPX 7669 down to 7626
Overnight NQ: high 29966.75 · low 29648.00 · that is NDX 29664 down to 29345
Offsets: ES +70, NQ +303, measured in Thursday's final minutes. Both drifted again into the close, confirm with extra care at the open.
VIX: 15.36 premarket | Thursday closed 15.44, low 15.38, the whole event premium gone | VIX9D 13.39 | VIX1D 13.12 | VVIX 87.72
VIX gates: supports 15.38, Thursday's low, then the 15.00 level. Overhead, the old 15.84 line has flipped into first resistance, then Thursday's high 16.29.
WTI near 100, third day of losses | Brent 102.57 | Gold 4421 | 10 year near 5 percent
AM straddle: ±32 around 7645 → 7613 to 7677 (ES 7683 to 7747)
Monday: ±60 → 7577 to 7698
Month end, 9/30: ±132 → 7505 to 7770, the market prices a 1.7 percent corridor through quarter end
NDX today: ±179 → 29268 to 29626 | NDX month end: ±791, a 2.7 percent corridor
AVERAGES
SPX SMA: 5D 7610 | 10D 7642 | 20D 7658 | 50D 7615
SPX EMA: 5D 7612 | 10D 7629 | 20D 7644 | 50D 7603
NDX SMA: 5D 29165 | 10D 29277 | 20D 29289 | 50D 29170
NDX EMA: 5D 29209 | 10D 29238 | 20D 29276 | 50D 29210
The reference itself sits on the S&P's 10 day SMA and 20 day EMA pair at 7642 to 7645, the exact prices that rejected Thursday's high. The day opens on the line that stopped it yesterday.
THE WITCHING BOOK (the afternoon positions, the ones that steer the day)
The books built the close around one strike: at 7650, the biggest put selling and the biggest call selling of the afternoon book sit together, the heaviest two sided strike of the week, one tick above the morning reference. A second battle is pre built at 7700, sold both ways, and unusually, buyers have surrounded the whole stretch between them: the biggest bought calls of the board at 7670 and 7675, more at 7695, and a large block at 7705 past the fight. Fuel runs through the entire upper half of the map.
Below the market the book is nearly all accelerant: bought puts at 7630 and 7625, more at 7615 and 7590, a heavy pocket far down at 7550, and only two thin stands in the whole run, 7595 and 7570. At 7600, traders have sold calls under the tape while heavier put buyers sit on the same strike, a contested line. Whichever way the witching flows push, there is little between the levels to slow them.
PIVOT 7650 (ES 7720) · the witching pin, sold both ways, the heaviest strike of the week
TRIGGER 7613 (ES 7683) · BEARISH BELOW · the bottom of the expected range
CONFIRMATION 7705 (ES 7775) · a close past the second battle
FLOOR 7570 (ES 7640) · the lone real stand below
THE LEVELS · SPX AND ES (December contract, ES at +70)
🔵 7705 · ES 7775 · heavy bought calls past the fight · CONFIRMATION above
🔴 7700 · ES 7770 · sold both ways, the second battle
🔵 7695 · ES 7765 · bought calls, fuel into the fight
🔵 7670-7675 · ES 7740-7745 · the biggest bought calls of the board, the fuel corridor's heart, the range top 7677 just above it
🔴 7660 · ES 7730 · a seller step
🔴 7650 · ES 7720 · PIVOT · the witching pin, sold both ways, the heaviest strike of the week
🟡 7645 · ES 7715 · the reference, on the 10 day SMA and 20 day EMA pair that rejected Thursday's high
🔵 7630-7625 · ES 7700-7695 · heavy bought puts, the fuel below
🟡 7615-7613 · ES 7685-7683 · TRIGGER at 7613, BEARISH BELOW · the bottom of the expected range, with bought puts on 7615
🔴 7600 · ES 7670 · contested, call sellers under the tape with heavier bought puts on the strike
🟢 7595 · ES 7665 · put sellers, a thin stand
🔵 7590 · ES 7660 · bought puts
🟢 7570 · ES 7640 · FLOOR · the lone real stand, bought positions on both sides of it
🔵 7550 · ES 7620 · the deep fuel pocket, the map thins past it
PATH UP: hold above the reference and the pin at 7650 is the first fight, the heaviest strike of the week and the books' choice for the close. The reaction there is the day's main watch: witching days love to pin, and this one is a magnet. Acceptance above it rides the fuel at 7670 and 7675 through the range top toward the second battle at 7700, and CONFIRMATION is a close past 7705, where the last big buyers sit.
PATH DOWN: lose the reference and the fuel at 7630 to 7615 speeds the drop. BEARISH BELOW 7613: the contested line at 7600 and the thin stand at 7595 are the only slowing points before 7570, the lone real stand of the book and the bounce watch. Through it, the deep pocket at 7550 accelerates, and the drawn map thins.
Note: the paths describe how the day can travel, not what to trade. On witching day above all: the settlement flows do not read maps in the first and last half hour. Work from the levels, wait for a reaction, and plan there.
THE LEVELS · NDX AND NQ (December contract, NQ at +303, positioning from the QQQ book)
The Nasdaq's witching book is the biggest we have mapped this quarter, and the tape opens thirty points under a giant: the call wall at 29573. Below, a put wall band lines five straight strikes, and the floor of the book is a wall of unusual size at 28752.
🔴 29779 · NQ 30082 · the far call wall
🟡 29664 · NQ 29967 · the overnight high, the BoJ print
🔴 29656 · NQ 29959 · call step
🟡 29626 · NQ 29929 · top of the expected range
🔴 29573 · NQ 29876 · the giant call wall, thirty points above the tape, the day's ceiling watch
🟡 29543 · NQ 29846 · where the futures point this morning
🟢 29409-29245 · NQ 29712-29548 · a put wall band across five strikes, the two sided monster at 29368 and the overnight low 29345 inside it, the 10 and 20 day lines at its base
🟢 29163 · NQ 29466 · the giant pin, the biggest two sided strike of the board, the 5 day SMA on it
🟢 28957 · NQ 29260 · two sided wall
🟢 28752 · NQ 29055 · the heaviest put wall of the board
🟢 28547 · NQ 28850 · put wall
The Nasdaq note: the day is bracketed tight. The giant call wall stands thirty points overhead, the put wall band begins about 130 points below, and between them the tape has room to swing but every exit is guarded. A close above 29573 on witching day is a statement; a fall finds the band, then the pin at 29163 with the 5 day average on it. The floor wall at 28752 is weekend business, not the base case.
THE STRING · paste into the NextPin Pinboard indicator on TradingView
D=0918;REF=7645;P=7650;T=7613;C=7705;AMS=7613-7677;ON=7626-7669;FLR=7570;EX=7700@R@second-battle,7695@F@fuel-into-fight,7675@F@fuel-heart,7660@R@seller-step,7630@F@fuel-below,7600@R@contested,7595@S@thin-stand,7550@F@deep-pocket;VIX=15.38,15.00,15.84
Indicator: https://t.co/gH3o6Za7jU
Not financial advice. Verify levels before trading.
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Last hour update
SPX
Range for the rest of the session: 7634 - 7641
Only if 7641 crosses and holds look above to 7644 then 7649.
Only if 7634 breaks look below to 7631 then 7626.
NDX
Range for the rest of the session: 29407 - 29441
Only if 29441 crosses and holds look above to 29452 then 29478.
Only if 29407 breaks look below to 29396 then 29370.
SPY
Range for the rest of the session: 762.3 - 763.2
Only if 763.2 crosses and holds look above to 763.5 then 764.2.
Only if 762.3 breaks look below to 761.9 then 761.3.
QQQ
Range for the rest of the session: 715.9 - 716.9
Only if 716.9 crosses and holds look above to 717.3 then 718.1.
Only if 715.9 breaks look below to 715.5 then 714.7.
IWM
Range for the rest of the session: 286.0 - 286.4
Only if 286.4 crosses and holds look above to 286.6 then 286.9.
Only if 286.0 breaks look below to 285.8 then 285.5.
SMH
Range for the rest of the session: 560.3 - 561.9
Only if 561.9 crosses and holds look above to 562.5 then 563.7.
Only if 560.3 breaks look below to 559.8 then 558.6.
A break of either edge tends to travel, because there is little traded structure beyond them.
These are a read on the session, not a call on the close. A headline lands and they are gone.
Not financial advice.
$SPX $NDX $SPY $QQQ $IWM
#0DTE #Options #DayTrading
Range into next hour
SPX: 7632 - 7642
Only if 7642 crosses and holds look above to 7645 then 7652.
Only if 7632 breaks look below to 7629 then 7622.
NDX
Range for the rest of the session: 29409 - 29457
Only if 29457 crosses and holds look above to 29474 then 29511.
Only if 29409 breaks look below to 29392 then 29356.
SPY
Range for the rest of the session: 762.0 - 763.1
Only if 763.1 crosses and holds look above to 763.5 then 764.4.
Only if 762.0 breaks look below to 761.6 then 760.7.
QQQ
Range for the rest of the session: 715.9 - 717.3
Only if 717.3 crosses and holds look above to 717.7 then 718.7.
Only if 715.9 breaks look below to 715.5 then 714.5.
IWM
Range for the rest of the session: 286.3 - 286.9
Only if 286.9 crosses and holds look above to 287.1 then 287.6.
Only if 286.3 breaks look below to 286.1 then 285.7.
SMH
Range for the rest of the session: 560.2 - 562.2
Only if 562.2 crosses and holds look above to 562.9 then 564.4.
Only if 560.2 breaks look below to 559.5 then 557.9.
A break of either edge tends to travel, because there is little traded structure beyond them.
These are a reads for next hour, not a call on the close. A headline lands and they are gone.
Not financial advice.
$SPX $NDX $SPY $QQQ $IWM
#0DTE #Options #DayTrading
SPX, ES, NQ and NDX 0DTE Pinboard - Thursday September 17 · AFTER THE FED
The Fed hiked a quarter point, the first hike since 2023, unanimous, and the dots signal one more this year. The decision itself traded quietly: the break came at 2:30, when Chair Warsh delivered a terse, consistently hawkish press conference, and the market fell 100 points in an hour, stopping eight points above the second fortress our map drew, at 7507.77. Then the night bought it all back and kept going: the futures rallied from the evening low through Wednesday's entire decline, printing 7642 in SPX terms this morning, through the 50 day lines, through the 10 day EMA, and pressing the 7645 average pair at the gate's doorstep. President Trump says he still has confidence in Warsh, and demands one percent rates. Gundlach says the hike should have been bigger.
The next two events are already loaded: the Bank of Japan decides tonight, 89 percent expect the hike that ends an era of easy money, and tomorrow is triple witching with Fed Bowman speaking thirty minutes after the open. This morning: jobless claims and the Philadelphia Fed survey at 8:30. Oil keeps retreating, Saudi Arabia is reportedly offering ship to ship crude transfers to work around its damaged pipeline, and President Trump says the war is hopefully nearing its end. The Bank of England held rates this morning, diverging from the Fed.
EVENTS AND DATES
9/17 8:30 AM -> Jobless claims + Philadelphia Fed survey
9/17 overnight -> BANK OF JAPAN DECISION, a hike widely expected
9/18 open -> Triple witching
9/18 9:30 AM -> Fed Bowman speech
THE NUMBERS
SPX Wednesday: Open 7601.25 | High 7626.79 at 11:47 | Low 7507.77 at 3:27 | Close 7551.81 (0.45% lower)
NDX Wednesday: Open 29110.04 | High 29235.89 | Low 28753.29 | Close 28945.06 (0.02% higher, green on Fed day)
ES December, Wednesday: Open 7676.50 | High 7699.00 | Low 7575.00 | Close 7622.25 | busiest price 7680 | value 7592 to 7698
NQ December, Wednesday: Open 29386.75 | High 29549.75 | Low 29053.00 | Close 29254.25 | busiest price 29465 | value 29130 to 29535
Overnight ES: high 7710.75 · low 7617.50 · that is SPX 7642 down to 7548, the whole Fed drop bought back in the dark
Overnight NQ: high 29680.75 · low 29247.75 · that is NDX 29376 down to 28943
The futures point to SPX near 7640 and NDX near 29360 before the open.
Offsets: ES +69, NQ +305, measured in Wednesday's final minutes. The NQ basis is drifting day to day, confirm both with extra care at the open.
VIX: closed 17.71 | Wednesday's spike high 18.94, through the 18.17 trigger, the month's ceiling on fear broke at the press conference | VIX9D 17.40, back under the VIX | VVIX 95.41
VIX gates: supports 16.40, Wednesday's low, then 15.84, last Friday's close. The warning is now 18.94, the press conference print.
WTI 100.48, under 101 | Gold 4372 | 10 year near 5 percent
AM straddle: ±31.5 around 7625 → 7594 to 7657 (ES 7663 to 7726), witching eve priced tight
Max pain: 7600 | Most positions: 7675, the new pin
Triple witching Friday: ±80 → 7471 to 7632 (ES 7540 to 7701)
AVERAGES
SPX SMA: 5D 7601 | 10D 7645 | 20D 7662 | 50D 7612
SPX EMA: 5D 7599 | 10D 7627 | 20D 7645 | 50D 7602
NDX SMA: 5D 29149 | 10D 29281 | 20D 29277 | 50D 29176
NDX EMA: 5D 29090 | 10D 29192 | 20D 29258 | 50D 29200
The morning tape has reclaimed the 50 day lines, the 5 day lines, and the 10 day EMA, and is testing the 7645 pair, the 10 day SMA and 20 day EMA sharing one price, as we publish. Above it: the 20 day SMA at 7662 inside the chop zone.
THE THURSDAY BOOK
The books rotated the whole map up overnight. The pin moved to 7675: the biggest put selling and heavy call selling together on one strike, with max pain's twin sitting there too. Yesterday's pin at 7650 flipped into a contested gate, call sellers stacked over heavy bought puts, the strike the books defended on Fed day is the strike they now bet against holding. A movement bet appeared at 7610, bought calls and bought puts together right where the futures traded. Below the market the book is thin: call sellers at 7600 betting the morning strength fails, a fuel belt from 7590 to 7570, and the first true stand all the way down at 7515 with bought puts beneath it.
PIVOT 7675 (ES 7744) · the Thursday pin, sold both ways, the repair's destination
TRIGGER 7594 (ES 7663) · BEARISH BELOW · the bottom of the expected range
CONFIRMATION 7685 (ES 7754) · a close through the seller pair above the pin
FLOOR 7515 (ES 7584) · the first stand
THE LEVELS · SPX AND ES (December contract, ES at +69)
🔴 7685-7690 · ES 7754-7759 · seller pair, the last drawn ceiling · CONFIRMATION above 7685
🟢 7675 · ES 7744 · PIVOT · the pin, sold both ways, most positions of the day on this strike
🔴 7660-7670 · ES 7729-7739 · seller steps with bought calls wedged at 7665, the approach chop zone, the range top 7657 at its edge and the 20 day SMA 7662 inside it
🔴 7650 · ES 7719 · the contested gate, call sellers over heavy bought puts, with the 10 day SMA and 20 day EMA both at 7645 right beneath it
🟡 7625 · ES 7694 · reference, light positions both ways, the 10 day EMA 7627 beside it
🔵 7620-7610 · ES 7689-7679 · bought calls at both, at 7610 a movement bet bought both ways, and the 50 day SMA 7612 inside the zone
🔴 7600 · ES 7669 · call sellers under the tape, a bet the morning strength fails, with the 5 day lines and the 50 day EMA clustered at 7599 to 7602
🟡 7594 · ES 7663 · TRIGGER, BEARISH BELOW · bottom of the expected range
🔵 7590-7570 · ES 7659-7639 · the fuel belt, bought positions scattered across five strikes, nothing defends
🟡 7552-7548 · ES 7621-7617 · Wednesday's close with the overnight low beside it, the reaction watch on any retest
🟢 7515 · ES 7584 · FLOOR · the first stand of the book
PATH UP: hold above 7610, where the movement bet sits, and the first fight is the contested gate at 7650: call sellers defend it now, so acceptance above it is the morning's tell. Through the gate, the chop zone at 7660 to 7670 holds the range top, the rejection watch, and beyond it the pin at 7675 is the magnet and the repair's destination. Above the pin, CONFIRMATION on a close through the seller pair at 7685 to 7690, and past that is beyond the drawn map.
PATH DOWN: lose the movement bet at 7610 and the call sellers at 7600 press. BEARISH BELOW 7594, and the fuel belt speeds the fall toward Wednesday's close at 7552 with the overnight low beside it, the day's big reaction watch: a hold there keeps the repair alive, a break reopens Fed day's basement. Below, nothing stands until 7515.
Note: the paths describe how the day can travel, not what to trade. With the BoJ tonight and witching tomorrow, work from the levels, wait for a reaction, and plan there.
THE LEVELS · NDX AND NQ (December contract, NQ at +305, positioning from the QQQ book)
The witching eve book is dense, and the overnight repair has already run through it: the futures cut through the call wall band at 29244 to 29326, through the top of the expected range, and are testing the big wall at 29367 as we publish. Deep beneath the map, the war protection at 27930 and 27807 grew again.
🔴 29408 · NQ 29713 · the next wall above
🔴 29367 · NQ 29672 · the big call wall, being tested as we publish
🔴 29326-29244 · NQ 29631-29549 · call wall band, the morning opens inside it, the 10 and 20 day lines inside it too
🟡 29229 · NQ 29534 · top of the expected range, at the band's base
🟢 29162 · NQ 29467 · the pin, sold both ways, the heaviest two sided strike
🟢 29121-28957 · NQ 29426-29262 · a two way shelf across five strikes, calls and puts both heavy, the 5 day EMA inside it
🟡 28945-28943 · NQ 29250-29248 · Wednesday's close with the overnight low on it
🟢 28874-28792 · NQ 29179-29097 · put wall band, three strikes
🟢 28751 · NQ 29056 · the heaviest near put wall
🟡 28661 · NQ 28966 · bottom of the expected range
🟢 28587-28546 · NQ 28892-28851 · put wall pair
🟢 28340 · NQ 28645 · put wall
The Nasdaq note: the morning's decision is at the big wall. Acceptance above 29367 opens the next wall at 29408 with the far ceiling at 29696 beyond it, and rejection sends price back through the band, where the 10 and 20 day lines wait, toward the pin at 29162, the day's magnet. Below, the shelf and the close guard the approach to the put wall bands. Witching adds size to every one of these lines tomorrow.
THE STRING · paste into the NextPin Pinboard indicator on TradingView
D=0917;REF=7625;P=7675;T=7594;C=7685;AMS=7594-7657;ON=7548-7642;FLR=7515;EX=7657@Y@range-top,7650@R@contested-gate,7610@F@movement-bet,7600@R@sellers-under-tape,7552@Y@wed-close-watch;VIX=16.40,15.84,18.94
Indicator: https://t.co/gH3o6Za7jU
Not financial advice. Verify levels before trading.
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SPX, ES, NQ and NDX 0DTE Pinboard - Wednesday September 16 · FED DAY
Decision at 2:00, Chair Warsh at 2:30. The hike is priced at 92.5 percent, so the dots and the press conference are the event. Before any of it: September VIX settles at the open, and the VIX is walking down into that settlement at 16.92, the quiet morning the September sellers needed. Retail sales print at 8:30 and oil inventories at 10:30, live data with crude retreating this morning after a report of a surprise inventory build, Brent near 107.60. The 10 year waits at 5.00 percent, its highest neighborhood since 2007. And the war reached a new place overnight: Saudi Arabia says it intercepted a drone headed for Mecca, the first time the fighting has touched the holy city.
Tuesday closed at 7585.73 after pinning itself to the 7580 line all afternoon, and the night that followed was the calmest of the week: a coil between 7588 and 7614, the double tested low at 7573 never approached. The futures point to SPX near 7613 and NDX near 29075 before the open. The market goes into the decision holding fewer downside hedges than at any point this month, traders closed them into Tuesday's close, even the deepest ones.
EVENTS AND DATES
9/16 open -> September VIX expiration
9/16 8:30 AM -> Retail sales
9/16 10:30 AM -> Oil inventories
9/16 2:00 PM -> FED RATE DECISION + new projections
9/16 2:30 PM -> Chair Warsh press conference
9/18 overnight -> Bank of Japan decision, a quarter point hike widely expected
9/18 open -> Triple witching
9/18 9:30 AM -> Fed Bowman speech
THE NUMBERS
SPX Tuesday: Open 7612.30 | High 7617.26 at 9:30, the open was the high | Low 7572.69 at 10:53 | Close 7585.73 (0.45% lower)
NDX Tuesday: Open 29100.16 | High 29142.80 | Low 28899.43 | Close 28937.84 (0.65% lower)
ES December, Tuesday: Open 7684.50 | High 7687.00 | Low 7643.50 | Close 7656.75 | busiest price 7658 | value 7650 to 7660
NQ December, Tuesday: Open 29420.75 | High 29453.50 | Low 29207.50 | Close 29252.00 | busiest price 29250 | value 29225 to 29435
Overnight ES: high 7684.50 · low 7658.75 · that is SPX 7614 down to 7588, a tight coil
Overnight NQ: high 29419.25 · low 29226.00 · that is NDX 29105 down to 28912
Offsets: ES +71, NQ +314, measured in Tuesday's final minutes. The NQ basis moved sharply into Tuesday's close, confirm both with extra care at the open.
VIX: 16.92 premarket, falling into its own settlement | Tuesday closed 17.20 with VIX9D above it, the curve inverted into the decision | VVIX 94.91
VIX gates: supports 16.79 and 16.58. Warning 18.03 to 18.17, tested three times without breaking.
The volatility trigger for Fed day: 18.17. If the VIX trades through it after 2:00, the decision has broken the month's ceiling on fear and the map's floors matter more than its magnets. If the VIX falls under 16.58 instead, the event premium is coming out and the path back toward last Friday's 15.84 is open.
WTI 104.50 | Brent 107.60 | Gold 4391 | 10 year 5.00%
AM straddle: ±52 around 7610 → 7558 to 7662 (ES 7629 to 7733), compressed from ±62 at last night's close
Max pain: 7645 | The heaviest strike: 7650, the Fed pin
The week from here: Thursday ±80 → 7506 to 7666 (ES 7577 to 7737) | Triple witching Friday ±100 → 7486 to 7685 (ES 7557 to 7756)
AVERAGES
SPX SMA: 5D 7618 | 10D 7653 | 20D 7669 | 50D 7611
SPX EMA: 5D 7622 | 10D 7643 | 20D 7655 | 50D 7604
NDX SMA: 5D 29181 | 10D 29300 | 20D 29301 | 50D 29182
NDX EMA: 5D 29162 | 10D 29246 | 20D 29291 | 50D 29211
Every average on both boards is overhead. The nearest are the 50 day lines at 7604 and 7611, sitting right at the morning tape: reclaiming them is the first repair signal of any post decision rally.
THE FED DAY BOOK
The books built the day around one strike and reinforced both extremes overnight. At 7650 the biggest call selling and the biggest put selling of the day sit together on one line, the Fed pin. Above it, sellers added at three strikes overnight, 7680 now the biggest of them, hardening the band from 7660 to 7690, and the movement bet at 7675 grew: someone paid for both directions at once, betting the decision moves price hard away from that line. Below the market, the corridor of bought positions runs from 7640 to 7600 with one small block of put sellers at 7610 as its only support. Then the air pocket: from 7570 down to 7540, no positions at any strike. The first stand is 7540, the deep pin at 7530 and 7525 behind it, and overnight the books doubled the deep floor: the 7500 block grew and a new one appeared at 7490, a second fortress beneath the first.
PIVOT 7650 (ES 7721) · the Fed pin, sold both ways, the books' settlement choice
TRIGGER 7558 (ES 7629) · BEARISH BELOW · the bottom of the expected range, inside the empty stretch
CONFIRMATION 7685 (ES 7756) · a close through the hardened band
FLOOR 7540 (ES 7611) · the first stand below the pocket
THE LEVELS · SPX AND ES (December contract, ES at +71)
🔴 7680-7690 · ES 7751-7761 · the lid, sellers added at both strikes overnight · CONFIRMATION above 7685
🔵 7675 · ES 7746 · the movement bet, bought both ways, grew overnight
🔴 7660-7670 · ES 7731-7741 · seller band, with the top of the expected range at 7662 inside it
🔴 7650 · ES 7721 · PIVOT · the Fed pin, sold both ways, the heaviest strike of the board
🔵 7640 · ES 7711 · bought calls, the corridor's upper step
🔵 7625 · ES 7696 · heavy bought puts, the middle of the corridor
🟡 7610 · ES 7681 · where the futures point, the lone put sellers of the corridor on this strike
🔵 7600 · ES 7671 · bought puts, the corridor's lower step
🔵 7590-7580 · ES 7661-7651 · fuel underfoot both ways, nothing here defends
🟡 7573-7570 · ES 7644-7641 · the double tested low with the last fuel on 7570, watch the reaction at 7573, it has held twice
🟡 7558 · ES 7629 · TRIGGER, BEARISH BELOW · bottom of the expected range, in the empty stretch
🟢 7540 · ES 7611 · FLOOR · the first put sellers below the market
🟢 7530-7525 · ES 7601-7596 · the deep pin, sold both ways, the landing zone if the decision breaks the market down
🟢 7500-7490 · ES 7571-7561 · the second fortress, doubled overnight
PATH UP: hold above 7610 and the corridor speeds the move, 7625 then 7640, both bought fuel, into the Fed pin at 7650, the day's magnet and the books' settlement choice. The reaction at the pin is the first watch: on a quiet tape, price gets held there into 2:00. Acceptance above it runs into the seller band at 7660 to 7670, with the top of the expected range at 7662 inside it, the rejection watch. Clear the band and the movement bet at 7675 is in play, CONFIRMATION on a close above 7685 through the hardened lid, and past that is beyond the drawn map.
PATH DOWN: watch 7573 first, it has held twice. Below it the last fuel burns at 7570 and the empty stretch opens: BEARISH BELOW 7558, and there is nothing to slow the fall until the first stand at 7540. A bounce there is the reaction watch. Through it, the deep pin at 7530 to 7525 is where the books bet a broken day settles, with the second fortress at 7500 to 7490 behind it.
Note: the paths describe how the day can travel, not what to trade. On Fed day above all: the first move after 2:00 often reverses during the press conference, treat the 2:00 to 2:30 tape as a question, wait for a level and a reaction, and plan there.
THE LEVELS · NDX AND NQ (December contract, NQ at +314, positioning from the QQQ book)
The morning rebuilt the Nasdaq book. A call wall band now stands exactly where the futures point, put wall bands filled the floor beneath the overnight low, and the heaviest put wall of the day moved down to 28341. Deep beneath the drawn map, at 27807, sits the deepest protective position we have mapped all war.
🔴 29301-29291 · NQ 29615-29605 · the 20 day lines, just above the day's pricing
🔴 29246-29244 · NQ 29560-29558 · top of Fed day pricing, the 10 day EMA, and a call wall together on one spot
🔴 29182-29181 · NQ 29496-29495 · the 50 day and 5 day averages sharing one line
🟢 29162 · NQ 29476 · a two sided strike, puts and calls together, with the 5 day EMA on it
🔴 29080-28998 · NQ 29394-29312 · a call wall band built this morning, three strikes, with the overnight high and the morning tape inside it
🟢 28957 · NQ 29271 · positions both ways, grew this morning
🟡 28938 · NQ 29252 · Tuesday's close
🟢 28916-28792 · NQ 29230-29106 · a put wall band built this morning, four strikes, with the overnight low inside it
🟢 28751 · NQ 29065 · the second put wall, grew again this morning
🟡 28630 · NQ 28944 · bottom of Fed day pricing
🟢 28546 · NQ 28860 · put wall
🟢 28341 · NQ 28655 · now the heaviest put wall of the book
The Nasdaq note: the morning book boxed the tape in. The call wall band sits on the futures point, so the first fifty points of any rally are into fresh sellers, then the two sided strike with the 5 day EMA, the 50 day pair, and the 10 day EMA on the range top with its own call wall. Below, put wall bands now line every step: under the overnight low, at the second wall, and at the floor, where the day's heaviest wall waits. The decision breaks into a fully mapped street on both sides.
THE STRING · paste into the NextPin Pinboard indicator on TradingView
D=0916;REF=7610;P=7650;T=7558;C=7685;AMS=7558-7662;ON=7588-7614;FLR=7540;EX=7675@F@movement-bet,7662@R@range-top-seller-band,7640@F@corridor-fuel,7625@F@corridor-heavy,7600@F@corridor-fuel-low,7580@F@fuel-underfoot,7573@Y@double-tested-low,7525@S@deep-pin,7500@S@fortress;VIX=16.79,16.58,18.17
Indicator: https://t.co/gH3o6Za7jU
Not financial advice. Verify levels before trading.
$SPX #SPX #SPXOptions #0DTE #OptionsTrading $ES_F $NQ_F $QQQ #NDX #VIX #FOMC #FinTwit
NEXTPIN DAILY BRIEF | SPX, ES, NQ, NDX | Overnight into Wednesday September 16 · FED DAY
Decision day. The Fed announces at 2:00 PM with a new set of projections, the dot plot, and Chair Warsh takes the press conference at 2:30. The market prices a quarter point hike at better than nine in ten, so the decision itself is nearly settled: the dots and the press conference are the event. Before any of it, September VIX futures and options settle at the open, the biggest pile of volatility positions of the quarter dies hours before the announcement it was bought for. Retail sales print at 8:30 and oil inventories at 10:30, live ammunition with crude at new closing highs.
The war walked into the Fed's own numbers Tuesday. The Congressional Budget Office reported the conflict has cost 38 billion dollars, consumed as much as two thirds of the nation's missile defense interceptors, and will add half a percentage point to PCE inflation, the Fed's preferred gauge, by early next year. Oil settled up 4.4 percent at 105.83, its highest close since May, after Saudi Arabia cancelled some September crude cargoes with its main pipeline still shut, and Goldman said the infrastructure attacks raise the odds of Brent above 120. The 10 year closed above 5 percent for the first time since 2007. And the next central bank is already queued: a CNBC survey has 89 percent expecting the Bank of Japan to hike Friday, with Treasury Secretary Bessent publicly urging Governor Ueda toward decisive steps.
Tuesday told you how the market feels the night before: it opened at its high and found its low in ninety minutes, retesting Monday's overnight low at 7573 to within a third of a point, then pinned itself to the trigger all afternoon and closed at 7585.73, down 0.45 percent, just above the line. Both boards closed below their 50 day averages for the first time since the summer. The Nasdaq closed beneath its heaviest put wall. And the strangest detail of the day: on a down day before a Fed decision, traders closed their downside hedges instead of adding to them, even the deepest ones. The market goes into the decision less hedged than at any point this month, and the September VIX contracts, heavily bought as Fed protection, expire at the open, hours before the decision they were bought for.
EVENTS AND DATES
9/16 open -> September VIX expiration
9/16 8:30 AM -> Retail sales
9/16 10:30 AM -> Oil inventories
9/16 2:00 PM -> FED RATE DECISION + new projections
9/16 2:30 PM -> Chair Warsh press conference
9/18 overnight -> Bank of Japan decision, 89 percent expect a hike
9/18 open -> Triple witching
9/18 9:30 AM -> Fed Bowman speech
THE NUMBERS
SPX Tuesday: Open 7612.30 | High 7617.26 at 9:30, the open was the high | Low 7572.69 at 10:53 | Close 7585.73 (0.45% lower)
NDX Tuesday: Open 29100.16 | High 29142.80 | Low 28899.43 | Close 28937.84 (0.65% lower)
ES December, Tuesday: Open 7684.50 | High 7687.00 | Low 7643.50 | Close 7656.75 | busiest price 7658 | value 7650 to 7660
NQ December, Tuesday: Open 29420.75 | High 29453.50 | Low 29207.50 | Close 29252.00 | busiest price 29250 | value 29225 to 29435
The evening session is quiet: ES 7660 to 7668, pointing to SPX near 7593. WTI trades 105.15 in the evening after the 105.83 close.
Offsets: ES +71, NQ +314, measured in Tuesday's final minutes. The NQ basis compressed sharply into the close, so confirm both with extra care at the open.
VIX: 17.20 close | VIX9D 17.21, above the VIX itself, the term structure is inverted into the decision | VIX1D 17.14 | VVIX 94.91
VIX gates: supports 16.79, Tuesday's low, then 16.58. Warning 18.03 to 18.17, the zone tested three times without breaking.
The volatility trigger for Fed day: 18.17. Three rallies in volatility have stopped at that zone this week. If the VIX trades through it after 2:00, the decision has broken the month's ceiling on fear and the map's floors matter more than its magnets. If the VIX falls under 16.58 instead, the event premium is coming out and the path back toward last Friday's 15.84 is open.
WTI 105.83 close, highest since May | Brent 108.75 | Gold 4330 | 10 year above 5 percent, first close there since 2007
Fed day pricing, at Tuesday's close: ±62 → 7524 to 7647 (ES 7595 to 7718)
Thursday ±80 → 7506 to 7666 (ES 7577 to 7737)
Triple witching Friday ±100 → 7486 to 7685 (ES 7557 to 7756)
NDX Fed day: ±308 → 28630 to 29246 (NQ 28944 to 29560)
Max pain: 7675 | The heaviest strike of the day: 7650
AVERAGES
SPX SMA: 5D 7618 | 10D 7653 | 20D 7669 | 50D 7611
SPX EMA: 5D 7622 | 10D 7643 | 20D 7655 | 50D 7604
NDX SMA: 5D 29181 | 10D 29300 | 20D 29301 | 50D 29182
NDX EMA: 5D 29162 | 10D 29246 | 20D 29291 | 50D 29211
Every average on both boards is overhead. The nearest lines are the 50 day pair at 7604 and 7611, lost on Tuesday, and reclaiming them is the first repair signal of any post Fed rally.
THE FED DAY BOOK
The books built Fed day around one strike. At 7650, the biggest call selling and the biggest put selling of the day sit together on one strike, the Fed pin. The expected range's top at 7647 stops right beneath it. Between the market and the pin runs a fuel corridor: heavy bought puts at 7625, more at 7600, bought calls at 7640, positions that speed a move through the zone rather than stop it.
Beneath the market, the books left an air pocket. From the close at 7586 down to 7540 there is no support at any strike. The few positions in the zone, clustered from 7590 to 7570, are the kind that speed a move rather than slow it, and the rest of the strikes are simply empty. The first stand is 7540, and the real one is the deep pin at 7530 and 7525, sold both ways, sitting exactly on the bottom of Fed day pricing at 7524. Behind it, the 7500 block.
Above the pin, someone bought both sides at 7675, a bet that the decision moves price hard away from there. From 7685 up to 7705, traders have sold calls, collecting premium on the bet that the market stays below those prices. The drawn map ends there.
PIVOT 7650 (ES 7721) · the Fed pin, sold both ways, the books' settlement choice
TRIGGER 7524 (ES 7595) · BEARISH BELOW · the bottom of Fed day pricing, on the deep pin at 7525
CONFIRMATION 7685 (ES 7756) · a close above the outer lid
FLOOR 7500 (ES 7571) · the last drawn stand
THE LEVELS · SPX AND ES (December contract, ES at +71)
🔴 7700-7705 · ES 7771-7776 · the top of the drawn map
🔴 7685 · ES 7756 · call sellers, the final ceiling above the pin · CONFIRMATION above
🔵 7675 · ES 7746 · bought both ways, a bet on movement away from this price, max pain on the same line
🔴 7650-7647 · ES 7721-7718 · PIVOT at 7650 · the Fed pin, sold both ways, the heaviest strike of the board, with the top of Fed day pricing right under it
🔵 7625 · ES 7696 · heavy bought puts, the middle of the fuel corridor
🟢 7610 · ES 7681 · a small block of put sellers, the only support inside the corridor
🔵 7600 · ES 7671 · bought puts, the corridor's lower step
🔵 7590-7580 · ES 7661-7651 · fuel underfoot both ways, bought puts and bought calls together, nothing here defends
🟢 7573-7570 · ES 7644-7641 · the double tested low with the last fuel on 7570, watch for the reaction at 7573, it has held twice
🟢 7540 · ES 7611 · the first put selling below the market, the air pocket's floor
🟡 7530-7524 · ES 7601-7595 · TRIGGER at 7524, BEARISH BELOW · the deep pin, sold both ways, the real stand, with the bottom of Fed day pricing one point under it
🟢 7500 · ES 7571 · FLOOR · the last drawn block
PATH UP: hold above 7573, the proven low, and the corridor carries the market toward the pin: 7600, then 7625, both fuel, then the range top at 7647 and the pin at 7650, the day's magnet and the books' settlement choice. A 2:00 answer the market likes travels the corridor fast. Above the pin, the movement bet at 7675 and a close above 7685 confirms the breakout, and the map ends at 7700 to 7705.
PATH DOWN: watch 7573 first, the low that has held twice this week. Below it the air pocket opens, and with nothing in it but the fuel at 7570, a rejection at 2:00 can fall forty five points before meeting the first put sellers at 7540. That stand is the bounce watch. Under it sits the deep pin at 7530 to 7525, sold both ways, the day's real fight. BEARISH BELOW 7524, and the map ends at the 7500 block.
Note: the paths describe how the day can travel, not what to trade. On a Fed day above all: work from the levels, wait for the 2:30 press conference tape to settle, and plan there.
THE LEVELS · NDX AND NQ (December contract, NQ at +314, positioning from the QQQ book)
The Nasdaq goes into the Fed below everything: beneath every average, beneath Tuesday's heaviest wall, at the bottom of its month. Its Fed day book brackets the decision wide, and deep beneath the drawn map, at 27807, sits the deepest protective position we have mapped all war.
🔴 29301-29291 · NQ 29615-29605 · the 20 day lines, just above the day's pricing
🟡 29246 · NQ 29560 · top of Fed day pricing, with the 10 day EMA on the line
🔴 29182-29181 · NQ 29496-29495 · the 50 day and 5 day averages sharing one line
🟢 29162 · NQ 29476 · a two sided strike, puts and calls together, with the 5 day EMA on it
🟢 28957 · NQ 29271 · positions both ways, a small step above the close
🟡 28938 · NQ 29252 · Tuesday's close
🟢 28751 · NQ 29065 · the heaviest put wall of the book
🟡 28630 · NQ 28944 · bottom of Fed day pricing
🟢 28546 · NQ 28860 · put wall
🟢 28341 · NQ 28655 · put wall
The Nasdaq note: every repair has to climb through layered ceilings, the two sided strike carrying the 5 day EMA, then the 50 day pair, then the 10 day EMA on the range top, then the 20 day lines. Below, the heaviest wall at 28751 guards the approach to the range floor, with two more walls beneath it. Whichever way 2:00 breaks, the Nasdaq's first fifty points are already mapped.
THE NIGHT'S KEY PRICES (SPX, with ES December in brackets at +71)
🔴 7650 (ES 7721) · the Fed pin
🔵 7625 (ES 7696) · the corridor's heavy bought puts
🟡 7593 (ES 7664) · where the evening trades
🟢 7573 (ES 7644) · the double tested low
🟢 7540 (ES 7611) · the first defender below
🟡 7524 (ES 7595) · bottom of Fed day pricing, the deep pin
A quiet night holds between 7573 and 7625. The morning Pinboard provides you the latest updates.
THE FED DAY PLAN
The decision is priced. The dots are not. The 2:00 reaction trades the projections, how high the committee sees rates going, and the 2:30 press conference trades Warsh's ability to hold his committee together, the vote counting stories say dissents are possible on both sides. The first move after 2:00 frequently reverses during the press conference: treat the 2:00 to 2:30 tape as a question, not an answer. The VIX settlement at the open removes the September insurance before any of it, and the market walks into the decision carrying less protection than it held at any point this month, our decomposition shows even the crash tails were sold on Tuesday. Whatever the dots say, the market that hears them has fewer shock absorbers than the one that traded the last Fed meeting.
Not financial advice. Verify levels before trading.
$SPX #SPX #SPXOptions #0DTE #OptionsTrading $ES_F $NQ_F $QQQ #NDX #VIX #FOMC #FinTwit
September 15 into the last hour. SPX 7586 down thirty four, NDX 28946 down one hundred and eighty two.
SPX is 31 off its high. NDX is 197 off its high.
SPX LEVELS
7620 yesterday's close
7600 the outer edge of what is left of the day
7593 where the market starts running out of room above
7585 the magnet, price keeps coming back to it
7580 where it starts running out of room below
7574 the outer edge below
Only if 7591 crosses and holds look above to 7593 then 7600.
Only if 7583 breaks look below to 7580 then 7574.
NDX LEVELS
29143 the high of the day
29003 the outer edge of what is left of the day
28976 where the market starts running out of room above
28930 the thin edge below, a move through here travels
28890 the outer edge below
Only if 28964 crosses and holds look above to 28976 then 29003.
Only if 28929 breaks look below to 28917 then 28890.
On volatility, VIX up 0.34 at 17.44, the nine day up 0.65 at 17.56, VVIX up 1.21 at 96.10, the Nasdaq gauge up 0.52 at 22.57.
These levels are a read on the next hour, not a call on the close. A headline lands and they are gone.
Not financial advice.
$SPX $NDX #SPX #NDX #SPXOptions #0DTE #DayTrading #VIX
September 15 afternoon. SPX 7584 down thirty six, NDX 28955 down one hundred and seventy two.
SPX is 33 off its high. NDX is 188 off its high.
SPX LEVELS
7620 yesterday's close
7601 the outer edge of what is left of the day
7595 the thin edge above, a move through here travels
7590 the lid on the current range
7580 the floor under the current range
7573 the low of the day
Only if 7590 crosses and holds look above to 7593 then 7601.
Only if 7580 breaks look below to 7576 then 7569.
NDX LEVELS
29143 the high of the day
29035 the outer edge of what is left of the day
28998 where the market starts running out of room above
28970 the magnet, price keeps coming back to it
28935 the thin edge below, a move through here travels
28913 the low of the day
28880 the outer edge below
Only if 28982 crosses and holds look above to 28998 then 29035.
Only if 28933 breaks look below to 28917 then 28880.
On volatility, VIX up 0.46 at 17.56, the nine day up 0.66 at 17.57, VVIX up 1.33 at 96.22, the Nasdaq gauge up 0.54 at 22.59.
These levels are a read on the next hour, not a call on the close. A headline lands and they are gone.
Not financial advice.
$SPX $NDX #SPX #NDX #SPXOptions #0DTE #DayTrading #VIX
September 15 midday. SPX 7583 down thirty seven, NDX 28972 down one hundred and fifty six.
SPX is 35 off its high. NDX is 171 off its high.
SPX LEVELS
7620 yesterday's close
7615 the thin edge above, a move through here travels
7597 where the market starts running out of room above
7591 the lid on the current range
7585 the magnet, price keeps coming back to it
7574 the floor under the current range
7568 where it starts running out of room below
7555 the outer edge below
Only if 7591 crosses and holds look above to 7597 then 7611.
Only if 7574 breaks look below to 7568 then 7555.
NDX LEVELS
29143 the high of the day
29100 the outer edge of what is left of the day
29039 where the market starts running out of room above
29011 the lid on the current range
28990 the thin edge above, a move through here travels
28970 the magnet, price keeps coming back to it
28931 the floor under the current range
28904 where it starts running out of room below
28843 the outer edge below
Only if 29011 crosses and holds look above to 29039 then 29100.
Only if 28931 breaks look below to 28904 then 28843.
On volatility, VIX up 0.48 at 17.58, the nine day up 0.72 at 17.63, VVIX up 1.15 at 96.04, the Nasdaq gauge up 0.64 at 22.69.
These levels are a read on the next hour, not a call on the close. A headline lands and they are gone.
Not financial advice.
$SPX $NDX #SPX #NDX #SPXOptions #0DTE #DayTrading #VIX
SPX, ES, NQ and NDX 0DTE Pinboard - Tuesday September 15 · FED EVE
The Fed begins its meeting today with the bond market already voting. The 10 year yield touched 5.04 percent this morning, its highest since 2007, and the odds of a rate hike tomorrow stand above 92 percent. The CNBC Fed survey has flipped hard in a month: 86 percent of respondents now expect hikes, more than half expect several over the next year, and three quarters say inflation has spread beyond energy. The vote counting stories say Chair Warsh faces a real battle in the room tomorrow, with dissents possible on both sides. Oil and Treasury yields are moving together at the tightest correlation in seven years: the oil market is setting the bond market now, and Hormuz stays closed.
The AI fight turned political overnight. President Trump raged at the slowdown push, phoning Nvidia's chief live at a conference to call data center opposition a hoax, while China's government dismissed the warnings as fear mongering and Broadcom's chief said revenue targets have not changed. Monday's promised bank sanction landed on Russia's VTB over Iran ties. And a diplomatic track finally appeared: Iran's foreign minister visits China tomorrow, and a Trump and Xi meeting is floated for September 24, the first real negotiation signal of the war.
Monday graded clean on both ends: the low defended the 7590 risk line by two points, and the rally died at 7648, two points under the 7650 gate. Overnight the futures pierced the twin stand at 7600 and 7595 to a 4:11 AM low of 7573, and reclaimed it, the stand is now battle tested. The VIX sits at 17.06 after touching Monday's 18.17 warning to the decimal, and most of its rise decomposed as real but orderly protection buying, part of it the September roll: VIX expires tomorrow at the open, hours before the decision.
EVENTS AND DATES
9/15 today -> FOMC meeting begins · 20 year auction 1:00 PM into a 5 percent 10 year
9/16 open -> VIX expiration
9/16 2:00 PM -> Fed rate decision + projections
9/16 2:30 PM -> Chair Warsh press conference
9/18 overnight -> Bank of Japan rate decision, a quarter point hike widely expected
9/18 open -> Triple witching
9/18 9:30 AM -> Fed Bowman speech
THE NUMBERS
SPX Monday: Open 7611.44 | High 7647.99 at 12:53 | Low 7592.28 at 10:55 | Close 7619.98 (0.48% lower)
NDX Monday: Open 28890.93 | High 29285.50 | Low 28867.67 | Close 29127.16 (0.79% lower)
ES December, Monday: Open 7673.50 | High 7719.75 | Low 7662.25 | Close 7692.50 | busiest price 7705 | value 7668 to 7712
NQ December, Monday: Open 29194.50 | High 29604.50 | Low 29167.75 | Close 29448.50 | busiest price 29295 | value 29175 to 29590
Overnight ES: high 7701.00 · low 7645.00 at 4:11 · that is SPX 7629 down to 7573, the twin stand pierced and reclaimed
Overnight NQ: high 29495.25 · low 29231.00 · that is NDX 29175 down to 28911
The futures point to SPX near 7610 and NDX near 29097 before the open.
Offsets: ES +72, NQ +320, measured in Monday's final minutes. Confirm them again when regular trading opens.
VIX: 17.06 premarket | Monday closed 17.10, high 18.17, the warning touched exactly | VIX9D 16.91 | VIX1D 12.02 | VVIX 94.89
VIX gates: supports 16.58, Monday's low, then 16.46. Warning 18.17, now tested twice.
Brent near 108 | WTI 102.58, overnight high 104.21 | Gold 4322 | 10 year 5.01%, touched 5.04%
AM straddle: ±30 around 7610 → 7580 to 7640 (ES 7652 to 7712), the tightest morning pricing of the week, on Fed eve
Max pain: 7650, exactly where Monday's rally was rejected
The week from here: Wednesday ±70 into the decision, Thursday ±89, Friday ±101 into triple witching.
The calendar today: weekly ADP 8:15, Empire State 8:30, the 20 year auction at 1:00, a live event with the 10 year at 5 percent, API crude 4:30. The Fed is silent until tomorrow at 2:00.
AVERAGES
SPX SMA: 5D 7636 | 10D 7663 | 20D 7677 | 50D 7610
SPX EMA: 5D 7640 | 10D 7656 | 20D 7662 | 50D 7604
NDX SMA: 5D 29278 | 10D 29314 | 20D 29329 | 50D 29187
NDX EMA: 5D 29274 | 10D 29315 | 20D 29329 | 50D 29222
The market is sandwiched: the 50 day lines sit just below at 7604 and 7610, where the futures point, and the whole short stack sits overhead from 7636 to 7677. On the Nasdaq the averages have collapsed into pairs: the 20 day SMA and EMA share 29329 exactly, and the 10 day and 5 day pairs each sit within a point of themselves.
THE FED EVE BOOK
The book rebuilt overnight for a run at the wall. The bought calls at 7660 doubled into the second biggest position of the board, 7670 flipped from sold to bought, and the runway from 7660 to 7670 into the 7675 wall is now pure fuel. The wall itself grew to the biggest call selling of the book, and it is sold both ways. Buyers are loading positions above the market on Fed eve.
The gate at 7650 and 7655 thickened overnight, 7655 flipped from bought to sold, and max pain sits on it at 7650, the exact price where Monday's rally was rejected. Below the market, the fuel underfoot at 7610 to 7620 grew again, the twin stand at 7600 and 7595 holds after its overnight test, and the deep book organized into a double floor far below with traps wedged beneath each level.
PIVOT 7625 (ES 7697) · the repair magnets, both grew overnight, the overnight high sits inside them
TRIGGER 7580 (ES 7652) · BEARISH BELOW · the bottom of the expected range, below the twin stand, on fuel
CONFIRMATION 7655 (ES 7727) · a close above the thickened gate
FLOOR 7570 (ES 7642) · the stand beneath the range
THE LEVELS · SPX AND ES (December contract, ES at +72)
🔴 7675 · ES 7747 · the wall, grew overnight, sold both ways, the day's ceiling watch, the 20 day average two points above it
🔵 7660-7670 · ES 7732-7742 · the runway, bought calls doubled at 7660 and 7670 flipped, pure fuel into the wall, the 10 and 20 day EMAs inside this zone
🔴 7650-7655 · ES 7722-7727 · the gate, thickened overnight, max pain and Monday's rejection at 7650 · CONFIRMATION above 7655
🟡 7640 · ES 7712 · top of the expected range, with the 5 day lines 7636 and 7640 on it
🟢 7625-7630 · ES 7697-7702 · PIVOT at 7625 · the repair magnets, both grew, the overnight high 7629 inside them
🔵 7610-7620 · ES 7682-7692 · the fuel underfoot, the biggest bought puts of the book, Monday's close on top, the futures pointing here, and the 50 day average 7610 on the strike
🟢 7600-7595 · ES 7672-7667 · the twin stand, pierced overnight to 7573 and reclaimed, battle tested, the 50 day EMA 7604 just above it
🟡 7580 · ES 7652 · TRIGGER, BEARISH BELOW · the bottom of the expected range, on bought puts at 7575 and 7580
🟡 7573 · ES 7645 · the overnight low
🟢 7570 · ES 7642 · FLOOR · the stand beneath the range
PATH UP: hold above 7610 and the market moves at the magnets, 7625 and 7630, where the overnight high already sits. Watch that zone closely: clearing it puts the gate at 7650 to 7655 in play, max pain and Monday's rejection together, the day's main decision. A close above 7655 confirms, and the runway fuel at 7660 to 7670 carries the move straight into the wall at 7675, the ceiling watch. Beyond the wall is Fed business, not Tuesday's.
PATH DOWN: lose 7610 and the fuel underfoot speeds the drop to the twin stand at 7600 and 7595, the bounce watch, it held twice overnight. BEARISH BELOW 7580: the stand has failed again and the fall runs on bought puts to the floor at 7570, and past that the drawn map ends.
Note: the paths describe how the day can travel, not what to trade. Work from the levels, wait for price to reach one and show a reaction, and plan the trade there.
THE LEVELS · NDX AND NQ (December contract, NQ at +320, positioning from the QQQ book)
The Nasdaq's Tuesday book is enormous, and it is built around one strike: a two sided pin at 29161, the heaviest complex of the day, puts and calls together on the 710 line, with a second put wall right under it at 29120. The averages have collapsed into three tight lines overhead.
🔴 29572 · NQ 29892 · the far call wall
🔴 29366 · NQ 29686 · call wall, just above the range top
🟡 29333-29329 · NQ 29653-29649 · top of the expected range with both 20 day lines on it, three ceilings on one spot
🔴 29315 · NQ 29635 · the 10 day lines, both on this strike
🔴 29278-29274 · NQ 29598-29594 · the 5 day lines
🟡 29175 · NQ 29495 · the overnight high
🟢 29161 · NQ 29481 · the pin, the heaviest position complex of the day, sold both ways
🟢 29120 · NQ 29440 · put wall, the pin's second layer
🟡 29097 · NQ 29417 · where the futures point this morning
🟢 28955 · NQ 29275 · the heaviest put wall of the book
🟡 28921 · NQ 29241 · bottom of the expected range
🟡 28911 · NQ 29231 · the overnight low, ten points under the range floor
🟢 28750 · NQ 29070 · the deep put wall
The Nasdaq note: the futures point sixty points under the pin. Above, every step is layered: the pin at 29161, then the averages in three tight lines at 29276, 29315 and 29329, the last sharing the range top. Below, the heaviest put wall at 28955 guards the range floor, and the overnight low sits ten points under it. The pin is the magnet: a quiet Fed eve drifts toward 29161.
THE STRING · paste into the NextPin Pinboard indicator on TradingView.
Note: this indicator seems ghosted for new additions for existing it may still be functional.
D=0915;REF=7610;P=7625;T=7580;C=7655;AMS=7580-7640;ON=7573-7629;FLR=7570;EX=7675@R@the-wall,7615@F@fuel-underfoot,7600@S@twin-stand;VIX=16.58,16.46,18.17
Indicator: https://t.co/gH3o6Za7jU
Not financial advice. Verify levels before trading.
$SPX #SPX #SPXOptions #0DTE #OptionsTrading $ES_F $NQ_F $QQQ #NDX #VIX #FinTwit
September 14 into the last hour. SPX 7634 down twenty three, NDX 29237 down one hundred and thirty two.
Both topped in the afternoon and both have eased back. NDX made its high at 29286 just before two and has given back forty nine points. SPX topped at 7648 at ten to one and is fourteen below it.
NDX still sits three hundred and sixty nine points above where it opened, which was also its low on the bell.
SPX LEVELS
7657 Friday's close
7648 the high of the day
7646 the outer edge of what is left of the day
7640 where the market starts running out of room above
7637 the lid on the current range
7635 the magnet, a third of the session has traded here
7630 the floor under the current range
7621 the outer edge below
7611 the opening print
7592 the low of the day
Only if 7637 crosses and holds look above to 7640 then 7646.
Only if 7630 breaks look below to 7627 then 7621.
NDX LEVELS
29368 Friday's close
29294 the outer edge of what is left of the day
29286 the high of the day
29266 where the market starts running out of room above
29253 the lid on the current range
29250 the magnet
29216 the floor under the current range
29203 where it starts running out of room below
29175 the outer edge below
28868 the low of the day, printed on the bell
Only if 29253 crosses and holds look above to 29266 then 29294.
Only if 29216 breaks look below to 29203 then 29175.
On volatility, the whole morning move has reversed. Everything sold off from the open until around one o'clock and everything has been bought back since. The nine day fell to 15.82 and is 16.39 now, up 1.92 on the day. The one day gauge went from 8.53 at the open down to 7.72, then up to 10.82 and it is sitting at its session high.
Volatility was sold all morning and has been bought back all afternoon, and that turn started while NDX was still making new highs.
These levels are a read on the next hour, not a call on the close. A headline lands and they are gone.
Not financial advice.
$SPX $NDX #SPX #NDX #SPXOptions #0DTE #DayTrading #VIX
September 14 afternoon. SPX 7637 down twenty, NDX 29267 down one hundred and one.
They have separated in the last hour. NDX made a fresh high at 29286 just before two and is now four hundred and eighteen points above where it opened, which was also its low on the bell. SPX topped at 7648 an hour ago and has drifted back since.
SPX LEVELS
7657 Friday's close
7654 the outer edge of what is left of the day
7648 the high of the day
7646 where the market starts running out of room above
7642 the lid on the current range
7632 the floor under the current range
7628 where it starts running out of room below
7620 the outer edge below
7611 the opening print
7592 the low of the day
Only if 7642 crosses and holds look above to 7646 then 7654.
Only if 7632 breaks look below to 7628 then 7620.
NDX LEVELS
29368 Friday's close
29352 the outer edge of what is left of the day
29312 where the market starts running out of room above
29293 the lid on the current range
29286 the high of the day, just made
29240 the floor under the current range
29221 where it starts running out of room below
29181 the outer edge below
28891 the opening print
28868 the low of the day, printed on the bell
Only if 29293 crosses and holds look above to 29312 then 29352.
Only if 29240 breaks look below to 29221 then 29181.
On volatility, the unwind has stalled. The one day gauge fell all morning to 9.92 and has turned back up to 10.41. VVIX has firmed to 94.20. VIX at 16.70 and the nine day at 16.05 are both flat on the hour after falling since the open.
The selling of volatility that ran all morning has stopped, and it stopped while NDX was making a new high. Worth watching into the close.
These levels are a read on the next hour, not a call on the close. A headline lands and they are gone.
Not financial advice.
$SPX $NDX #SPX #NDX #SPXOptions #0DTE #DayTrading #VIX
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