Mykola Berlinskyi

Learning finance in public. Mistakes included.
Investing • IPOs • deals • research

[Mykola Berlinskyi @NickBerlinskyi]

@steady_profits Congrats mate !

[Mykola Berlinskyi @NickBerlinskyi]

@PDmytriiev @PetyaDmitriev Gm gm
Don’t know about catan
My favourite is Bunker!

[Mykola Berlinskyi @NickBerlinskyi]

@PDmytriiev feels like it depends heavily on whether the AI capex spending keeps showing up as real revenue (like MSFT/AMZN’s cloud numbers) or starts looking more like the META story instead

[Mykola Berlinskyi @NickBerlinskyi]

GM

$MSFT posted the single biggest one-day value gain in stock market history — added ~$450B on Thursday alone after crushing earnings (revenue $90B, Azure +43%). beat $NVDA’s previous record from 2025

$AMZN followed up with its first-ever $200B+ revenue quarter, AWS grew 37% — fastest in 18 quarters. stock jumped ~9-10% after hours

not everyone celebrated though: $META missed EPS badly ($6.18 vs $7.17 expected) as costs jumped 55%, stock fell ~9-10%

$AAPL beat on revenue but guided weak on China/Services, fell ~6% after hours — Tim Cook’s last earnings call before the September CEO handoff

the Fed held rates at 3.50-3.75% but it wasn’t unanimous — 3 regional presidents actually wanted a hike

and $ICE just agreed to buy MarketAxess for ~$5.7B, a 33% premium

wild stretch. what caught your eye most?

[Mykola Berlinskyi @NickBerlinskyi]

@PDmytriiev honestly don’t think anyone can say for sure yet. what’s real: genuine demand, insane revenue growth. what’s questionable: how much of that “demand” is Nvidia’s own money circling back. probably somewhere in between a bubble and a legit boom, we’ll know more in a few quarters

[Mykola Berlinskyi @NickBerlinskyi]

📚 Time to Learn

$NVDA stock fell ~5% yesterday and the $NDX (Nasdaq 100) just entered a correction — a lot of it traces back to one term: circular financing

here’s what that actually means, using Nvidia as the live example:

$NVDA sells AI chips. Nvidia also invests billions into the companies buying those chips — OpenAI, xAI, CoreWeave, and more. now they’re reportedly in talks to backstop ~$250B of OpenAI’s data center debt

the concern: some of that “revenue” is really Nvidia’s own money making a round trip

the tell came from the bond market before the stock market — Nvidia’s credit default swap spread hit a record high the same day the news broke. bonds flagged the risk first

Jensen Huang calls the circular concern “ridiculous.” the BIS and investors like Michael Burry disagree. fundamentals are still very strong either way

[Mykola Berlinskyi @NickBerlinskyi]

@IndexAndForget I’m feel. I’m very feel.

[Mykola Berlinskyi @NickBerlinskyi]

@GoldmanSpacs_ Tell me how much you make a month, and I’ll quit my job and come work for you 😂

[Mykola Berlinskyi @NickBerlinskyi]

@JGreenCrypto Better than nothing !

[Mykola Berlinskyi @NickBerlinskyi]

@rayyela Gm
Enjoy mate

[Mykola Berlinskyi @NickBerlinskyi]

@PDmytriiev @PetyaDmitriev Gm gm

[Mykola Berlinskyi @NickBerlinskyi]

quick roundup of the biggest stuff happening in markets right now 📊

$CXMT (ChangXin Memory) IPO’d in Shanghai and it’s wild — priced at $1.28/share, closed up ~466% on debut. raised $8.6B, now China’s most valuable listed company at ~$488B market cap. biggest chip IPO in mainland China history

oil crashed — Brent fell from $102 to under $88 after the US and Iran paused strikes over the weekend. huge relief for markets after weeks of tension

earnings were a mixed bag: $GOOGL and $TSLA both disappointed on margins/capex despite beating on revenue, while $INTC crushed estimates (+25% revenue, best growth in 15 years) and $SAP jumped 10%+ on a strong cloud backlog

$VOW (Volkswagen) had a rough one — profit down 33%, considering cutting up to 100,000 jobs

and quietly, $AAPL overtook $NVDA as the world’s most valuable company for the first time in a while

[Mykola Berlinskyi @NickBerlinskyi]

@PDmytriiev What about football?😂

[Mykola Berlinskyi @NickBerlinskyi]

gm gm

what’s the verdict on padel — actual sport or just networking with extra steps? 😅

tennis or padel, which do you prefer?

padel partner 🎾@PDmytriiev

[Mykola Berlinskyi @NickBerlinskyi]

📚 Time to Learn

oil crossed $100 a barrel this week for the first time since May, and suddenly the market’s pricing in a possible Fed rate hike instead of a cut. why does oil move the Fed?

here’s the chain reaction:

oil gets more expensive → costs more to ship goods, run factories, drive to work → those costs get passed on to consumers → inflation rises

the Fed’s main job is keeping inflation under control. when inflation threatens to spike, raising rates is one of their main tools to cool it down — even if that means slowing the whole economy in the process

that’s why a geopolitical event thousands of miles away (Houthi attacks on Saudi tankers) can end up moving stock prices in New York

[Mykola Berlinskyi @NickBerlinskyi]

@PDmytriiev Gm
Viva Moldova 🇲🇩

[Mykola Berlinskyi @NickBerlinskyi]

@PDmytriiev Agreed, feels like the wildcard right now.

[Mykola Berlinskyi @NickBerlinskyi]

gm gm

quick rundown of the biggest stuff this week 📊

$GOOGL beat earnings big but fell 7% after guiding 2026 capex to $195-205B

$TSLA record revenue $28.2B but EPS missed hard ($0.33 vs $0.51 expected)

memory stocks got hit — $SNDK -11%, $MU and $WDC down ~6% on a Morgan Stanley note warning the memory boom may be peaking in Q4

oil crossed $100 for the first time since May after attacks on Saudi tankers, pushing Fed rate-hike odds up sharply

a lot happening at once — where do you see the market heading from here?

[Mykola Berlinskyi @NickBerlinskyi]

hey guys,

played at @Topgolf today and honestly loved it, way more fun than I expected

anyone ever played golf before? how was it for you?

don’t judge my technique too hard😂

[Mykola Berlinskyi @NickBerlinskyi]

@PDmytriiev 100%, but road trips have their own vibe too

[Mykola Berlinskyi @NickBerlinskyi]

long drive home today

how do you prefer to travel — plane or car?

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