nickjbrumfield.bsky.social

No longer super active on Twitter, can't access DMs here; Catch me on Bluesky | Researcher on #Yemen

[nickjbrumfield.bsky.social @NickJBrumfield]

Did this episode a few weeks back circa 3 December, but in light of the Israeli airstrikes on Yemen, Houthi missile attack on a Tel Aviv park, and the US friendly fire incident last week, a lot of what we talk about is unfortunately more relevant!

[Dr. Shubhda Chaudhary @ShubhdaC]

🚨 Episode 67 of @ME_InsightHub
#Houthi missile strike on #TelAviv – Israel retaliates. What does this escalating conflict mean for #Redsea security and regional stability?
🔹 Featuring Nicholas Brumfield – @NickJBrumfield

WATCH: https://t.co/yvbSpy6uvW

[nickjbrumfield.bsky.social @NickJBrumfield]

Former Yemeni President Abdu Rabu Mansur Hadi is dead at 80

I spent way too much of my 20s thinking about that man

The only thing I recommend doing about it is read @almuslimi's iconic piece marking his 2022 ouster, with doubles nicely as an obituary

https://t.co/A1QQlJ36Zz

[ᴅʀ. ʜ.ᴀ. ʜᴇʟʟʏᴇʀ 🖖🏾 ⚜️ @hahellyer]

Tehran keeps changing the goal posts.

The narrative was previously that Iran is 'entitled' to take over the Strait of Hormuz as 'self-defence'
(self-defence measures against the international community writ large for a war that the US/Israel began...);
Now, it wants to impose a toll but claim it is 'a fee for services'... right...

[nickjbrumfield.bsky.social @NickJBrumfield]

Even with the 700k b/d pipeline loss, still got 1.3 million capacity above the Yanbu bottleneck

Similarly, depending on how much total capacity (I've seen 11-12 million bpd), KSA is big enough it can lose 600k bpd and still theoretically ramp up to its February 2026 10.5 bpd

[Nader Itayim | ‌‌نادر ایتیّم @ncitayim]

🚨 Saudi Arabia confirms hits on "important energy facilities" in the
Kingdom, including the critical East-West pipeline "leading to a loss of approx 700k b/d thru the pipeline."

Also hits to the Manifa and Khurais production facilities resulted in a loss of 600k b/d. More 👇

[Phil Stewart @phildstewart]

(Reuters) - Imposing a toll on ships sailing through the critical Strait of Hormuz would "set a dangerous precedent" and countries should not impede freedom of navigation, the UN's shipping agency said on Thursday.

Iranian officials have raised the idea of charging a toll for using the Strait after a two-week ceasefire between the United States and Tehran was agreed this week.

"There is no international agreement where tolls can be introduced for transiting international straits. Any such toll will set a dangerous precedent," a spokesperson with the UN's International Maritime Organization said.

IMO countries adopted the UN Convention on the Law of the Seas, or UNCLOS, which outlines the rules that govern straits used for international navigation.

"According to UNCLOS, ships enjoy the right of transit passage through international straits. States bordering straits shall not hamper that right or suspend the transit passage," the IMO spokesperson said.

[nickjbrumfield.bsky.social @NickJBrumfield]

Again, it would be grimly funny if MBS said "eh, ok" to the toll or something to fuck over the rest of the Gulf states so Saudi Aramco can keep selling Arab Light crude out of Yanbu at a premium

[nickjbrumfield.bsky.social @NickJBrumfield]

It'd be grimly funny if MBS actually is urging the US to keep attacking, but only because he knows KSA's geography means it's less vulnerable to the kind of reputational risk from attacks than the UAE and wants Iran to keep spamming the UAE so Dubai companies will move to Riyadh

[nickjbrumfield.bsky.social @NickJBrumfield]

The attempt to justify obvious brigandage under the guise of resistance is appalling

Intl. aw matters. I, as an American, have been able to oppose US-Israeli aggression on the basis of intl. law

This is clearly self-serving bullshit in violation of international custom

[nickjbrumfield.bsky.social @NickJBrumfield]

A $1 per barrel toll for Hormuz would *not* be a "nominal fee"

$2 million one-way for a 2 million barrel VLCC

Annual insurance rates for average VLCC is $500,000

Closest analogy anybody can come up with is Turkey's fee, $5.83 per net ton, around $500,000 per tanker

[Amena Bakr @Amena__Bakr]

Omani Minister of Transport: We have signed all agreements related to maritime transport stipulating that no fees will be imposed for passage through the Strait of Hormuz. #OOTT

[Bryan Cheong @bryancsk]

Singapore is the world's second busiest port and our diplomats chaired the UN convention for the law of the sea, people expecting our country to do otherwise are deluded.

[nickjbrumfield.bsky.social @NickJBrumfield]

@LaochDubholtach Yeah, Oman is never going to go for it. I don't care what unnamed regional official from an unspecified country said to AP. I'd still put money down on that. They'd get kicked out of the GCC.

[nickjbrumfield.bsky.social @NickJBrumfield]

The Hormuz is subject to UNCLOS's right to transit passage under international custom.

Neither Iran nor the US have any right to unilaterally change this regime, even if they're not UNCLOS parties.

This is not just about Hormuz. This is about Singapore, Malacca, and more.

[Javier Blas @JavierBlas]

COLUMN: No matter what the US and Iran agree over the future of Hormuz, the strait’s status will change.

But the waterway will never be as critical as it was six weeks ago: Iran's rivals will rush to build more bypass oil pipelines.

@Opinion

https://t.co/hfpyjXwLyE

[nickjbrumfield.bsky.social @NickJBrumfield]

@LaochDubholtach Yeah, most states don't follow laws they don't want to, especially the US, and there's very little we can do make them. But the law does provide a framework for critique against brigandage, and I'm pretty confident in the right to innocent passage under international custom.

[nickjbrumfield.bsky.social @NickJBrumfield]

@LaochDubholtach Oman *is* a party to UNCLOS though

[nickjbrumfield.bsky.social @NickJBrumfield]

@LaochDubholtach *Technically innocent passage rather than transit passage for commercial traffic

[nickjbrumfield.bsky.social @NickJBrumfield]

@LaochDubholtach Perhaps regarding military vessels, but when it comes to freedom of navigation for transit passage of commercial traffic, it does not matter. That is an overwhelmingly established part of international customary law.

[nickjbrumfield.bsky.social @NickJBrumfield]

Freedom from aggression (which the US and Israel violated) and freedom of the seas (which Iran plans on violating) are indispensible rights of all countries, especially small ones.

I don't care if costs are politically acceptable, the world must forcefully protect both.

[nickjbrumfield.bsky.social @NickJBrumfield]

I honestly think it's plausible he hadn't read the 10-points before tweeting it that's where we're at

[Gregg Carlstrom @glcarlstrom]

Listen, it is indeed striking that Trump describes Iran's ten-point proposal as a "workable basis" for talks, but stipulating that at the start does not bind you to anything at the end

If America walks in and says it wants to change "right to continued enrichment" to "zero enrichment", then we're right back where we were in February

[nickjbrumfield.bsky.social @NickJBrumfield]

I really don't get this debate over "does Iran get leverage over the Hormuz"

It *has* leverage. Any littoral state willing to shoot things at passing ships does. That's not going away, because geography.

But also no one is ever going to legally recognize its right to do that.

[nickjbrumfield.bsky.social @NickJBrumfield]

Honestly, if I was an enterprising and somewhat shady guy I would be looking to speculate in Karachi

[Gregg Carlstrom @glcarlstrom]

Again, this is why confident assessments of the regime's post-war strength/resilience are premature. Surviving the war in such a way that you jeopardize your economic lifeline to Dubai, your main link to global markets and the financial system, is a Pyrrhic victory

[nickjbrumfield.bsky.social @NickJBrumfield]

Will be interesting to see if the fact a Chinese state-owned company has the contract on Mubarak al-Kabir makes a difference to Beijing on this one

https://t.co/49FBdBQK8T