Nick Nemeth (Mispriced Assets)

Talking markets and building a SMID-cap fund. Unhedged views on stocks, economics, & crypto + everything else. Top 50 Finance Substack.

[Nick Nemeth (Mispriced Assets) @NickNemo17]

https://t.co/5GHmqqzplN

[Nick Nemeth (Mispriced Assets) @NickNemo17]

Experiences are coming back.

Favorite stocks levered to that:
$STUB $YELP and obviously $GRPN

[Paul Enright @pmje73]

The more people tell me how much more time I should be spending in Claude and other AI tools the more I find myself wanting to spend more time physically present with actual people.

[Nick Nemeth (Mispriced Assets) @NickNemo17]

@benitoz @jbulltard1 @Investor_NICK_ @ChipYVR Think it says something that quality can be worse and they can charge more

It’s all about brand. Baddies love Alo

[Nick Nemeth (Mispriced Assets) @NickNemo17]

@STierAnalytics @Groupon @dusenn @ranakash @viktorbezdek @prerit_munjal @jansromek No I did this key by key lol

And yep aggressive with your points

[Nick Nemeth (Mispriced Assets) @NickNemo17]

Just sent @Groupon management a live product redesign and working codebase to unlock the massive potential in company.

@dusenn @ranakash @viktorbezdek @prerit_munjal @jansromek

GitHub: https://t.co/VIRsvPsC3p

Live beta: https://t.co/wZGHGo7wfG

$GRPN

[Nick Nemeth (Mispriced Assets) @NickNemo17]

@Investor_NICK_ @ChrisCamillo Yeah what

[Nick Nemeth (Mispriced Assets) @NickNemo17]

@UncleWawa_ @Groupon @dusenn @ranakash @viktorbezdek @prerit_munjal @jansromek Even Sonnet level would be outstanding,

They could do DeepSeek/Qwen but i think the cost is so marginal in the grand scheme and trust / feel is important

[Nick Nemeth (Mispriced Assets) @NickNemo17]

@opinioncasino we also know he doesnt feel the need to pay vendors

[Nick Nemeth (Mispriced Assets) @NickNemo17]

@wallstnomads @Groupon @dusenn @ranakash @viktorbezdek @prerit_munjal @jansromek see backend in git. more to do but thats an easter egg

[Nick Nemeth (Mispriced Assets) @NickNemo17]

@wallstnomads @Groupon @dusenn @ranakash @viktorbezdek @prerit_munjal @jansromek nope

[Nick Nemeth (Mispriced Assets) @NickNemo17]

@muddywatersre he did make me wiser on valeant

[Nick Nemeth (Mispriced Assets) @NickNemo17]

Well, I’ve never met him. My first experience was Valeant — a puzzle for me early in my financial analysis years. That was a great one

I do think he knew exactly what market reactions to his words would be and that he could smash a grab by exaggerating some of his claims. And bully stocks.

I just think it sucks because most people think activist short selling is all smash and grab

Vs a healthy component of the market and the marketplace of ideas

[Nick Nemeth (Mispriced Assets) @NickNemo17]

@h79sharesunder @StockJabber @CitronResearch Let’s settle on at least 1 hr

[Nick Nemeth (Mispriced Assets) @NickNemo17]

@CodfishJohnny @muddywatersre Dude look at his tweets and statements about companies

Directionally the verdict was right. Especially if you coordinate with hedgefunds

[Nick Nemeth (Mispriced Assets) @NickNemo17]

@CodfishJohnny @muddywatersre Agree. The best thing is to isolate him

[Nick Nemeth (Mispriced Assets) @NickNemo17]

@DeLaMurphy Not really. There’s very few left

And my view is that Left ended short-selling careers being extremely hataeable and often blatantly wrong on core facts later in his career.

Made a hard business even harder

[Nick Nemeth (Mispriced Assets) @NickNemo17]

It’s appalling Cliffwater says they have 2 years of liquidity. Here are the facts:

Latest annual report:

Cash: $581m
Unfunded loan commitments: $6.1B +
Annual fees/expenses: $1.0B
Net assets: $31.3B
5% quarterly gate: ~$1.6B
Q2 redemption requests: ~17%, or ~$5.3B
So cash covers ~10% of unfunded commitments and ~0.4 quarters of the gate.

They can borrow about $4.4B more on committed facilities, increasing leverage on a ~1.5x look through.

The SEC doesn't ask whether a liquidity presentation is optimistic.

It asks whether it's complete.

Investors should demand a reconciliation from headline liquidity to net liquidity after unfunded commitments, fees, and expected credit losses.

Potential areas to reference:

1. Investment Company Act Rule 22e-4 (Liquidity Risk Management) — if a fund presents liquidity in a way that could be materially misleading relative to actual redemption capacity.

2. Securities Act Rule 156 — prohibits materially misleading statements in investment company sales literature.

3. Exchange Act Rule 10b-5 — prohibits omissions of material facts necessary to make statements not misleading.

4. Investment Advisers Act Sections 206(1) and 206(2) — anti-fraud provisions covering misleading disclosures to clients.

$CCLFX

[Kieran Goodwin @kieranwgoodwin]

$CCLFX HAS UNFUNDED COMMITMENTS to the managers of their Private Investment Vehicles of:

$6.84 BN as of March '26

THIS NUMBER IS UP $2.16bn from the March '25 number of $4.68bn.

What happens when/if these managers draw on these commitments during the next year?

[Nick Nemeth (Mispriced Assets) @NickNemo17]

One RIA I spoke with went out of $BCRED and into $CCLFX and $CRDEX

Which is hilarious

[Nick Nemeth (Mispriced Assets) @NickNemo17]

Blackstone is the worst ‘S tier’ lender.

If they want to slow down outflows somewhat, ask:

“Well, are you looking to allocate to Cliffwater ?”

If “maybe” :

“You realize ~15% of their loans are underwritten by us. And we don’t give them access to every loan.”

@blackstone

[Nick Nemeth (Mispriced Assets) @NickNemo17]

Keep coming back

[Bridget Phetasy @BridgetPhetasy]

Hunter Biden is a dime a dozen in an AA meeting. He’s telling jokes you’ll hear from a dude with a face tattoo in a church basement on any given Tuesday afternoon. You guys just don’t know any drug addicts.

[junkbondinvestor @junkbondinvest]

In March, Blackstone paid every BCRED redemption to reassure clients.

In Q2, 10% wanted out. The cap is back to 5%.

The reassurance lasted one quarter.