Data centers are the scapegoats for the unknown future, but a lot of what is said about them just isn't true. Here are a few examples to put it in perspective.
As token prices have come down, more uses of AI become profitable so total spending increases. This trend will continue and benefit the AI labs and hyperscalers.
Although, this is why hyperscalers are cheap. Their free cash flow has turned negative in order to fund the buildout.
But this is what great companies do. They invest everything they can in large opportunities. $AMZN did this for years building out their distribution network. Many investors said the company would amount to nothing because they made no cash... They were just investing in the future.
Stocks are looking cheap again... They hyperscalers $AMZN $MSFT $META $GOOG and $ORCL are trading at valuation levels of the market bottom during "liberation day" last year and again the bottom this past March.
I wouldn't bet against these companies as AI demand surges.
Some people say the end of tokenmaxxing is near and that will be a headwind for AI... I say we haven't even begun to scratch the surface of what an average employee can do with AI.
Bullish: $NVDA $AMD $ARM $INTC
It's always good to put everything in perspective.
The "AI Bubble" is nowhere near as out of control as the dot com boom in the late 90s... But it'll get there...
Gold has consolidated price all year, and then this week touched the 200-day moving average and bounced strongly off it.
It looks to be coiling for the next move higher. Just needs to get over the 50-day MA....
$GLD $XAU
Solar was the fastest-growing electricity-generation source in history... But we know the problem with solar is that it's intermittent.
We need batteries to store solar electricity when the sun doesn't shine. And batteries are scaling even faster than solar.
Watch this combo
The AI infrastructure buildout is becoming a bigger part of the economy. Now instead of corporations like $AMZN $GOOG $MSFT $META hoarding profits, they are pumping that money back into the economy. This is overall net good...and they have the ability to continue spending more.
This is neat.
Some people criticize the science because it still needs fertilized embryos and chicks have developed in artificial structures before.
But the main advancement is the membrane which brings in oxygen, so gas doesn't need to be pumped in for the chicken to live.
BREAKTHROUGH: Colossal scientists hatched healthy chicks from artificial eggs.
No shells. No hens. Just bioengineered eggs that breathe like the real thing.
This could help bring back giant extinct birds like the South Island giant moa, whose eggs were ~80x a chickenโs. (1/10)
Hyperscalers get the attention for their mammoth buildouts and future revenue... As they should.
But don't sleep on the smaller, neoclouds. If these guys hit their targets, they will go much higher. Look at revenue growth for the sector.
$CRWV $IREN $NBIS $APLD $CLSK $CORZ
Bullish $BLSH is looking... bullish.
Crypto exchanges are in slight uptrend channels and consolidating nicely while they await passage of the CLARITY Act. And will likely make them acquisition targets as tradfi works to catch up.
$COIN also looks great fundamentally, btw
Reddit $RDDT is increasing their ARPU 32% yoy. They should be able to get an ARPU at least to the levels of $PINS, which would give revenue a 138% increase, even with no new users.
This is a story to watch. Reddit's monetization story might just be accelerating.
One of the biggest constraints for AI will be physical infrastructure and electricity.
That will put a premium on companies with existing datacenters and access to power.
CleanSpark $CLSK owns 29 data centers with >1.2 GW of capacity.
And today we saw it break out of a consolidation pattern... One to keep an eye on.
Also, look at all those tall green bars signifying accumulation on up days.
Spending on AI infrastructure is soaring... And its going even higher in the coming years. But much of this spending is to meet already existing performance obligations.
They aren't building on spec. They're building to meet customer demand.
$GOOG $MSFT $AMZN $META $ORCL
I never understand why there aren't more U.S. cities on these lists...
Life is pretty good. I like living here. And so do just about all the people I know.
#Gratitude
No one is even close to building a data center as big as @xai's Colossus 2.
The graph shows that by 2027, @elonmusk and xAI will have 3.5GW of capacity online in one data center.
Next closest is @OpenAI with two datacenters, each with over 2GW of capacity. And completed well after Colossus 2.