Nick Stadtmiller

EM Strategist w/ interest in Turkey, Russia, Ukraine and Gulf. Retweets ≠ endorsements; views my own.

[MenekseTokyay @MenekseTK]

Turkish central bank unleashes big interest rate hike in another sign of an economic shift https://t.co/K3wJprGL9Z My latest analysis piece with expert comments from @SelvaDemiralp @NickStadtmiller

[Nick Stadtmiller @NickStadtmiller]

@MacroAlf Not to mention the Saudi riyal is pegged to the USD. So all the domestic SAR liabilities are in USD too.

[Nick Stadtmiller @NickStadtmiller]

@MonicaLMarks I think we have a venue for our next drinks @Ed_S_Price

[Nick Stadtmiller @NickStadtmiller]

Way too optimistic. Erdogan is a strong favourite in the runoff, in my view

[Nick Stadtmiller @NickStadtmiller]

The rally in ��🇷 assets following @vekilince's withdrawal from the presidential race tells me markets are WAY too optimistic about Sunday - and looking for any reason to become even more enthusiastic.

[Nick Stadtmiller @NickStadtmiller]

@imfootballing @kjovano If you think rampant inflation and a sinking currency is good for your country, then you deserve what you get from the election

[Nick Stadtmiller @NickStadtmiller]

@kjovano The fact that this election wasn’t a slam dunk for the opposition speaks volumes

[Nick Stadtmiller @NickStadtmiller]

@kjovano I was shocked to see some Twitter figures saying there has been no speculation inside Turkey about anything other than a peaceful transition in power. Obviously any thinking Turk is worried

[Nick Stadtmiller @NickStadtmiller]

@kjovano Just wait

[Nick Stadtmiller @NickStadtmiller]

@fthydmr If someone had suggested this to me a decade ago, I would have thought they were crazy

[Nick Stadtmiller @NickStadtmiller]

My friend Alaa Shahine posted this great story on Turkey in Bloomberg from 2016. There is one dated statement though; women’s labour participation rate is now higher in Saudi Arabia than Turkey.

https://t.co/Ham9Ma2qav

[Nick Stadtmiller @NickStadtmiller]

@eaunina1 The same reason he tried to steal Christmas

[Nick Stadtmiller @NickStadtmiller]

@timjgwynnjones Tim, ever the master of sarcasm, says this with such deadpan that you could almost believe he’s being sincere - if you had no knowledge of history or facts, of course.

[Nick Stadtmiller @NickStadtmiller]

I’m very heartened by the fact that Snyder’s sentiments seem to be reflected among many academics & former officials in think tanks - and not by currently serving officials who make these decisions. Excellent analysis by @DrRadchenko

[Sergey Radchenko @DrRadchenko]

So to reflect a bit on Snyder's NYT oped: https://t.co/CZ2aCix1k0. The key argument is that nuclear powers have lost wars. The examples include US wars in Vietnam, Afghanistan, and Iraq, the Soviet war in Afghanistan, the French in Algeria and the collapse of the British Empire.

[Nick Stadtmiller @NickStadtmiller]

@vekilince I'm amazed that the comments are mostly assuming I'm talking CDS or bookie odds. I was mostly thinking of equities, although CDS was secondary in my thinking.

[Nick Stadtmiller @NickStadtmiller]

The rally in 🇹🇷 assets following @vekilince's withdrawal from the presidential race tells me markets are WAY too optimistic about Sunday - and looking for any reason to become even more enthusiastic.

[Nick Stadtmiller @NickStadtmiller]

@EMD_Pickles @vekilince Hm, maybe there's a cross-asset play here, playing an outright bet at the bookies against a position in BIST.

[Nick Stadtmiller @NickStadtmiller]

@berilakman Seriously??? How much corn on the cob do they think we eat? I'm from Indiana (major corn producer), and even there we don't eat it THAT much.

[Nick Stadtmiller @NickStadtmiller]

@Brad_Setser Especially appalling when you factor in the US consumer disproportionally covers the cost/profits of Pharma via exhorbitant drug prices, while consumers in other countries benefit from negotiated pricing by their governments. Both US consumers and gov't lose out.

[Nick Stadtmiller @NickStadtmiller]

@eaunina1 Regarding the risk of ‘dirty tricks’, this is the first time I’ve heard an opposition official acknowledge this publicly in such a forum. But RTE & Soylu hinted at this possibility last week, so it’s no longer a theoretical debate, I suppose.

[Nick Stadtmiller @NickStadtmiller]

So much for 🇹🇷 opposition unity. Presumably @ProfBilgeYilmaz is angling for a ministry or senior econ post if @kilicdarogluk wins the presidency, and this is the most enthusiasm he could muster for the opposition candidate when asked by @FT? Sheesh!
#turkeyelections #Secim2023