Nick Kaufman

I track internet trends for a living. previous: content @snap, trends & culture @tiktok_us, programming & community @clubhouse.

[Nick Kaufman @NickWK]

Whenever someone at work asked me why certain trends take off while others fade, I’d show them this. Uploaded 14 years ago by @sivers , it uses a viral moment to break down leadership, and also reveals the mechanics behind evergreen trends.

[Nick Kaufman @NickWK]

Insane random event. A bunch of people won the most recent powerball draw because each number is 16 more than the previous one.

Can't imagine how many people would win the jackpot if the powerball was 16 and not 15.

[Nick Kaufman @NickWK]

In a content landscape this exhausted, where every idea gets copied, flattened, and run into the ground, it's a rare moment when someone pushes the form into the future.

[Nick Kaufman @NickWK]

The most impressive people I've met in my career don't post anything online.

Every content platform is now built around e-commerce. If you aren't selling something, the case for consistent posting falls apart.

In the beginning these platforms used to offer the opposite: creative expression inside a restrictive format that felt safe. In this era of the internet, that feeling barely exists anywhere.

It is harder than ever to have fun online without risk.

[los (appstar) @downloadlos]

In NYC I casually meet the most impressive artists, creators, and hardware engineers

yet they're completely invisible online

not because they want to

they are just so unnatural that they don't fit within any vertical that reels or tiktok provides

their value shines beyond the algorithms constraints

so i sorta want to start a series called "algorithm rejects"

invite them to a studio

have one camera guy that's out of sight, out of mind

and have them show me what they're working on

who should i have on ?

[Nick Kaufman @NickWK]

@YourL0caLS3npai Deconstruction can usually mark the end of a trends first lifecycle.

That being said, I think it's relevancy will continue on for some time as something more evergreen.

[Nick Kaufman @NickWK]

At TikTok, I gave a presenation of my favorite phase of a trend’s lifecycle: deconstruction.

It’s the moment a trend becomes so deeply embedded in culture that you can remove almost all context.

The fewer the clues, the more powerful the bond between creator and viewer, because both know they’re already on the same page.

Blue shirt kid just reached that level.

[Nick Kaufman @NickWK]

At TikTok, I gave a presenation of my favorite phase of a trend’s lifecycle: deconstruction.

It’s the moment a trend becomes so deeply embedded in culture that you can remove almost all context.

The fewer the clues, the more powerful the bond between creator and viewer, because both know they’re already on the same page.

Blue shirt kid just reached that level.

[Nick Kaufman @NickWK]

We might be in a recession

[Nick Kaufman @NickWK]

The future is bright

[Nick Kaufman @NickWK]

@jackduval I just tell people I trade attention

[Nick Kaufman @NickWK]

Locked in my two trenchers. Congrats to @grizzle_art on the launch!

[Nick Kaufman @NickWK]

I cannot escape FAHHHH

[Nick Kaufman @NickWK]

@Aron_Sol7 I had similar concerns. Given the macro environment, it may take bundles to get things going.

[Nick Kaufman @NickWK]

My fyp is nonstop memed clips of John Kiriakou telling crazy CIA stories. I think it's because Epstein has been a dominant topic and they're in the same content cluster.

[Nick Kaufman @NickWK]

@shillaccount8 Something to consider:

The dev for Penguin did absolutely nothing publicly. You know who did? The devs for butwhy.

[Nick Kaufman @NickWK]

@shillaccount8 What does "push it" mean to you

[Nick Kaufman @NickWK]

@trenchie456 There are several potential catalysts for the trend to grow on and off-platform. Wouldn't be surprised if some $penguin holders saw similar potential.

We'll see

[Nick Kaufman @NickWK]

@jeremymandel @mickeymantled @BagsApp @finnbags @mvanhorn lmaooo

[Nick Kaufman @NickWK]

@mickeymantled @BagsApp @finnbags @mvanhorn @jeremymandel

[Nick Kaufman @NickWK]

@mickeymantled @BagsApp @finnbags shoutout @mvanhorn for breaking a launchpad

[Nick Kaufman @NickWK]

I held about 2.6% of $PENGUIN at a 90k mkp average. At the time of writing, that position would be worth about $3.7M.

I sold after overthinking the wallet distribution. The top holders felt sus and it was the second token of the trend. I wasn't sure if the og token $butwhy would overtake it since that community was larger with cleaner wallet distribution.

I’m honestly not upset about this fade. Even if I had held a few more days, I know I would have sold long before 20M, let alone 100M+. No token in this category has reached these levels since 2024. Any mental model ignoring this doesn't trade with probabilities in mind.

The people who held either have massive capital and don’t care about selling, or knew larger entities were planning to push or post.

This is a major positive sign for me. My instincts are still solid, I just need to keeping holding quality trends that fit the CT demo, be willing to take the loss, keep a fucking moonbag, adjust my own mental model, and have some luck.

I needed this to get the next one.

Screenshots from 1/16