Nick Yoder

Recovering Mathematician ~ Pilot, Sailor, Motorcyclist, Ex-Firefighter ~ Greatest desire: Advance cancer biology via Math + Systems Engineering

[Nick Yoder @NickYoder86]

Today I made this "Hierarchy of Immunotherapy" to organize my notes/thoughts.

Any feedback? Corrections/improvements?

[Nick Yoder @NickYoder86]

Satisfying mathematical observation (Borsuk-Ulam):

There always exists two points on opposite sides of the Earth with the exact same temperature and pressure.

Think about...

[I Smoked James O'Keefe @BlackKnight10k]

That's not a hint. It's a soft launch

[Kpaxs @Kpaxs]

Nobody is born low agency. Babies are the highest-agency creatures alive, they will absolutely try to eat a battery, they have no concept of "I can't."

Low agency is learned, usually from being punished for trying.

[Hemant Mohapatra @MohapatraHemant]

The curse of discipline is that every day looks the same. The curse of indiscipline is that every year does.

[Nick Yoder @NickYoder86]

R(4,6)=36

98e90387c883b01e526db243a9bae6882d1d4cea26407f6bf84bf53e23147523

[Nick Yoder @NickYoder86]

@instantricecook Highly underrated joke!

[Paul Graham @paulg]

Democrats and Republicans may be about equally likely to have mistaken policies, but Democrats are less dangerous in the worst case. Worst case Democrats are smug ideologues, but worst case Republicans are movie bad guys.

[WarMonitor @TheWarMonitor]

Making false statements about our fallen service members to politically justify his war is reprehensible.

Trump has no decency or respect for anything.

[Chris D. Jackson @ChrisDJackson]

And there you have it.

Donald Trump released these documents tonight believing they would finally prove the 2020 election was rigged against him.

Instead, his own release reinforced the exact opposite: Russia interfered to damage Joe Biden and benefit Donald Trump.

The central @HunterBiden -Burisma bribery smear was built on fabricated claims from an FBI informant with Russian contacts, a man now serving six years in federal prison. Meanwhile, Hunter Biden is winning millions in court over defamatory lies.

Trump tried to expose a conspiracy against himself and accidentally exposed the operation that benefited him.

Absolute, breathtaking incompetence.

Thanks for releasing the receipts, Donald!

[Christopher David @Tazerface16]

Trump is so fucking dumb that when he heard that semiconductors use "transistors," he thought they said "transgenders."

That's how fucking stupid our President is.

[Peter Schiff @PeterSchiff]

In the latest Trump grift, Truth Social will now sell faster access to Trump’s market-moving posts to institutional investors willing to pay for it. This is yet another example of Trump's unprecedented exploitation of the presidency for personal financial gain.

[Paul Graham @paulg]

The danger of continuing to act like a third world country is that you might actually become one.

[Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump]

What a rotten deal we made with Iran. We get nothing (except laughter at our stupidity). They get everything, including delay and big cash!

[Patrick Hsu @pdhsu]

people aren’t celebrating this pancreatic cancer breakthrough enough. it should be international news

[Paul Graham @paulg]

Hamming's talk is so important that I reproduced it on my site. It's one of the only things on my site written by someone else.

https://t.co/kWvKdwIiOm

[Peter Girnus 🦅 @gothburz]

I have three monitors on my desk. The left one shows the order book. The middle one shows Truth Social. The right one shows the investigation queue.

On April 21st, the left screen moved first.

I am a Senior Surveillance Analyst at a commodities exchange. I have held this position for nineteen years. My job is to monitor trading activity for suspicious patterns and generate compliance reports. I am employee of the quarter. I have a mug.

At 19:54 GMT on April 21st, someone placed 4,260 sell orders on Brent crude futures. They did this during post-settlement. The window after the market closes when daily volume is typically in the dozens. Sometimes single digits. Sometimes I watch the screen and nothing happens for forty minutes and I think about whether my daughter is happy.

On April 21st, someone placed $430 million in directional bets in 120 seconds during that window. One hundred and twenty seconds. I timed it on my watch because the system clock rounds to the nearest minute and I have found, in nineteen years, that precision matters to no one but me.

At 20:10 GMT, the President posted on Truth Social that he was extending the Iran ceasefire.

Brent dropped from $100.91 to $96.83.

I flagged the trade. I flag a lot of trades. I want to tell you what happens to my flags.

My flags go into a system called TRACE. Trade Review and Compliance Evaluation. I did not name it. The system generates a report. The report goes to a committee. The committee has a name I am not allowed to share but I can tell you it meets quarterly and the conference room has a credenza with bottled water that is sparkling because someone once put still water in the room and a managing director sent an email about it that was longer than most of my surveillance reports.

The committee reviews my flags. The committee has reviewed all of my flags. Here is the complete record of actions taken on my flags in 2026:

Reviewed.

That's it. "Reviewed" is a status. In compliance, a status is the absence of an action that has been given a name so it looks like one.

Let me show you my flags.

March 9th. Someone bet millions on oil falling at 18:29 GMT. Forty-seven minutes later, a CBS reporter posted that the President said the Iran war was "very complete, pretty much." Oil dropped 25%. Forty-seven minutes. I flagged it.

March 23rd. Someone sold 5,100 lots of Brent and WTI crude futures between 10:49 and 10:50 GMT. Fourteen minutes later, the President posted on Truth Social about a "COMPLETE AND TOTAL RESOLUTION" to hostilities. Oil dropped 11%. Over 13,000 contracts traded in sixty seconds after the post. Fourteen minutes. I flagged it.

April 7th. Someone established a $950 million short position in oil futures at 19:45 GMT. Three hours later, the President declared a two-week ceasefire. Nine hundred and fifty million dollars. I flagged it.

April 17th. Someone placed $760 million in bearish bets twenty minutes before Iran's foreign minister confirmed the Strait of Hormuz would reopen. Seven hundred and sixty million. I flagged it.

April 21st. The $430 million. Fifteen minutes. I flagged it.

That is $2.1 billion in directional oil bets in April alone. Every one of them landed on the correct side of a presidential announcement. Every one of them was placed in a window so narrow you could measure it in bathroom breaks. I flagged every single one.

The CFTC chair told a Congressional committee that his organization has "zero tolerance" for fraud and insider trading. I wrote that quote on a Post-it note and stuck it to my right monitor. The one that shows the investigation queue. The investigation queue has not moved since March.

Zero tolerance. Zero staff. Zero budget. Zero prosecutions under the STOCK Act since it was signed in 2012.

Fourteen years. The law has existed for fourteen years and has been enforced zero times. In compliance, we call that a compliance rate of one hundred percent. No cases filed means no cases lost. You cannot fail an audit you never conduct. We call that excellence.

Last month the White House sent an internal email to staff. I was not on the distribution list but I have read reporting on it and I need you to sit with what I am about to say. The email instructed White House staff not to use insider information to place bets on prediction markets.

The White House had to send a memo telling its own employees not to insider-trade.

I want you to read that sentence again. Not because the instruction was unclear. Because the instruction was necessary. Because someone in the building looked at the same pattern I have been flagging for months on my three monitors and decided the appropriate response was an email.

The President's son sits on the advisory board of Kalshi. He is an investor in Polymarket. Both are prediction markets. Both saw accounts created days before U.S. military action.

One account. I cannot stop thinking about this account. It was called "Burdensome-Mix." It was created in December. On January 2nd, it placed $32,500 on Venezuela's president being removed from power. On January 3rd, Maduro was seized by U.S. special forces. Burdensome-Mix collected $436,000. Then it changed its username. Then it disappeared.

One account is a coincidence. But there were six.

Six accounts were created on Polymarket in February. All bet on U.S. strikes on Iran by the 28th. When the President confirmed the strikes, the six accounts collected $1.2 million between them. Five of the six never placed another bet. The sixth went on to correctly predict the ceasefire date and made another $163,000.

My surveillance system logged all of this. My system logs everything. My system does not have opinions and neither do I. I generate reports. The reports go to committees. The committees meet quarterly. Between meetings, the windows get shorter and the bets get larger.

March 9th: 47 minutes. March 23rd: 14 minutes. April 17th: 20 minutes. April 21st: 15 minutes.

The window is compressing. In March, you had time to make coffee between the trade and the announcement. By April, you had time to send a text. By summer, at this rate, the trade and the announcement will be the same event.

The spokesman said any implication that administration officials are engaged in insider trading is "baseless and irresponsible reporting."

Then the White House sent the email again.

I have been in compliance for nineteen years. I have seen insider trading run out of strip mall offices by men who could not spell "derivative." I have seen pump-and-dump schemes coordinated over WhatsApp by people who used their real names. I have seen a man try to manipulate soybean futures from a Panera Bread.

I have never seen $2.1 billion in perfectly timed trades across five presidential announcements in a single month go uninvestigated.

But I have also never seen a compliance system work this beautifully. Every trade flagged. Every report filed. Every committee briefed. Every quarterly meeting attended. Bottled water: sparkling. Minutes: distributed.

Zero prosecutions.

As long as the flags go up and the cases don't, my performance review says I am meeting expectations.

I am meeting expectations. The system is meeting expectations. The $2.1 billion is meeting expectations. The fourteen-year-old law with zero prosecutions is meeting expectations.

The left screen moves. The middle screen moves. The right screen stays perfectly, immaculately still.

In my field, we call this price discovery.

[Nick Yoder @NickYoder86]

This sounds like the modern equivalent of “British anti-aircraft gunners just eat lots of carrots and have excellent eyes… like rabbits!” WW2 disinformation campaign.

[Vaibhav Sisinty @VaibhavSisinty]

I think this is the most insane thing the CIA has ever made public. 😨

They have a secret AI tool called Ghost Murmur.

It detects your heartbeat from 40 miles away using AI.

Not your phone. Not a tracker. Not a radio signal.

Your heartbeat.

It uses sensors built from synthetic diamonds to lock onto the electromagnetic fingerprint your heart produces every single beat, then pairs it with AI to filter that one signal from 1,000 square miles of noise.

Last week, a wounded American pilot was hiding in a mountain crevice in Iran.

No phone. No tracker. No way to call for help.

America found him anyway. From the sky. By listening to his chest.

But nobody mentioned the most important detail.

This was Ghost Murmur's first operational use. It's been sitting classified for years. Tested. Ready. Waiting.

They didn't reveal it to impress you. They revealed it because the rescue was already public.

Every technology a government admits to is the one they've already moved past.

Your heart has been broadcasting your location your entire life.

Someone just built the receiver.

[Nick Yoder @NickYoder86]

I grew up on Walker Texas Ranger.

I hope death is ready to get roundhouse kicked in the face.

My favorite Chuck Norris facts:

1. When Chuck Norris doesn’t do push ups, he pushes the Earth down

2. The Boogeyman checks his closest for Chuck Norris.

3. If you can see Chuck Norris, he can see you. If you can’t see Chuck Norris, you may be seconds away from death.

4. Chuck Norris doesn’t wear a watch, he decides what time it is.

5. A cobra once bit Chuck Norris. After 5 days of agony, the Cobra finally died.

6. Jack was nimble. Jack was quick. But Jack couldn’t dodge Chuck’s roundhouse kick.

7. Chuck Norris’ diary is called ‘Guinness Book of World Records’

8. When Chuck Norris stared into the abyss, the abyss looked away.

9. Chuck Norris doesn’t sleep. He waits.

10. Voldemort refers to Chuck Norris as “You know who”.

[Nick Yoder @NickYoder86]

Every book I read gets a 1-10 rating.

Here are the 22 books (so far) to earn a 10/10 rating.

📚🧵

[Holden Culotta @Holden_Culotta]

Thomas Massie is going NUCLEAR on Trump’s regime change war in Venezuela.

“How did it work out in Cuba, Libya, Iraq, or Syria?”

“Do we want another Afghanistan in the Western Hemisphere?”

“This is about oil and regime change.”

“Previous presidents told us to go to war over WMDs, weapons of mass destruction, that did not exist.”

“Now it’s the same playbook, except we’re told that drugs are the WMDs.”

“James Madison warned us that in no part of the Constitution is more wisdom to be found than in the clause which confides the question of war and peace to the legislature—not the executive.”

“The framers understood a simple truth: to the extent that war-making power devolves to one person, liberty dissolves.”

“By escalating toward war, we would predictably create countless refugees.”

“Are we prepared to receive swarms of the 25 million Venezuelans who will likely become refugees?”

@RepThomasMassie @MassieforKY