HeanDawg

@Nick_Heaney17

Nick Heaney

Montville, NJ

Joined April 2017

268 Following

28 Followers

194 Posts

Nick_Heaney17 retweeted

JOLLY DINGER

@JollyDinger

over 1 year ago

gmgm probably my favorite thing to talk about rn is portfolio management. its my biggest edge and also what we have been lied to about the most, so i'm doing everything i can to spread the word about the BARBELL your portfolio will SEVERLY underperform if u don't read what comes next and implement it immediately. here's why (with 2 case studies and data at end) -> What is the Barbell Approach? A barbell strategy advocates for dividing one’s portfolio between two buckets on opposite ends of the risk curve- extremely safe and extremely risky. This is a contrarian view, as the typical investment allocation prefers exposure to the middle part of the risk curve (ie the traditional “60/40 stocks/bonds split” that is taught in every single finance course and by financial advisors around the country). no joke, i talked to several tradfi financial advisors over the last year or two and they still teach middle risk curve bullshit. DONT TAKE THE BAIT!!! the barbell strategy tends to outperform during periods of volatility, both to the downside and to the upside. as described by Nassim Taleb in The Black Swan, we tend to underestimate the likelihood of the improbable, and thus most of our portfolios are structurally unprepared for that which is unexpected not only have we experienced an increasing amount of worldwide disruption due to ai proliferation, we are also seeing the breakdown and deterioration of world government due to overspending and ballooning debt. thus, per my view, the only rational portfolio balance to have is one that is optimized for volatility and the unexpected one of the beauties of the Barbell strategy, and what I believe is my own unique addition to the theory, is that it is scalable. what i mean by this, is that even within the high-risk bucket, you can also divide that bucket into high-risk high-risk, and low-risk high-risk. an example of this would be cryptocurrency being a part of someone’s barbell portfolio in the high-risk bucket, but then that cryptocurrency portfolio is also barbelled between bitcoin as the safe bucket and highly speculative altcoins in the high-risk bucket what I believe is my unique take on the scalability of the barbell theory will allow for the hyper-optimization of one’s portfolio, making it more robust for systemic risk within the investment buckets themselves, as well as out-performing during times of expansion due to the exposure to extremely high-risk assets one can weight the high-risk and low-risk buckets differently based on their life goals (ie if u are close to retirement, ur high-risk bucket will be smoller % than if ur early 20s), but for the majority of people what I advocate for is between 70-80% low-risk and between 20-30% high-risk (which is a more high-risk balance than most barbell advocates, who usually advise 10-15% in the high-risk bucket). below is an example of assets that belong in each bucket. NOTE- 99.99% of equities and corporate bonds have 0 place in the barbell approach Barbell Strategy Portfolio Allocation Example Safety bucket - 80% of total net-worth 80% of safety bucket in ultra-safe sub-bucket -USA T-Bills, laddered from 1mo-10 years with heavier weighting on short-term T-Bills for liquidity sake (fyi- u can buy these directly with 0 counterparty risk from the govt themselves- (https://t.co/37HceAyaXi) -Land/Primary residence- yes, the market value for this is not safe at all, BUT the real life value of having a primary residence fully paid for is massive, and I would argue that while the fiat value of land is volatile, the real-life value of land is unchanging and constant -Physical Gold-I say physical gold and not digital (like a gold etf) because there is less counterparty risk with physical gold during periods of instability 20% of safety bucket in risky-safe sub-bucket -other commodities with higher volatility than gold- Silver, Copper, Oil -land (non-primary residence- i am only bullish on land in northwest USA rn- ie idaho, east wa/or, montana, dakotas) High-risk bucket - 20% of total net-worth -80% of high-risk bucket in safe-risk sub-bucket -Bitcoin- ALMOST ALL OF UR HIGH RISK BUCKET SHOULD BE BTC - AI tangential stocks (energy, computer chips), emerging industries stocks (robotics, rocketry). NOT "ai stocks"- will go in depth on why that is later -NOTE: the portfolio manager can include any other high-risk assets that they might have exclusive knowledge about (for example, pokemon cards, exclusive investment rounds, exotic derivatives, etc). 20% of high-risk bucket in high-risk sub-bucket -Altcoins, NFTs, Memecoins, angel investing -whatever degenerate high-high risk gambling u can think of that's it- that's the ideal portfolio. below is the proof this stuff works the best, both in good times and in bad (NOTE- 2007-2009 comparable we had to substitute other trash in for btc as it didn't exist yet- barbell approach still outperformed massively, but would have outperformed even better if we had access to crypto) tldr of data below- barbell outperformed 60/40 by +59% apr compared to +18% apr during bull market, and +7% apr compared to -10% apr during bear market. u are literally lighting ur money on fire if u have not implemented the barbell approach already Barbell Strategy Historical Test #1 Time period: 1/1/2023 – 12/31/2024 (all price data is daily close unless otherwise indicated) Traditional 60/40 stocks/bonds portfolio 60% SPX, 40% BND (vanguard bond market etf) -SPX- +54.25% -BND- -0.17% along with 3.6% dividend yield, for overall +7.2% gain -Total portfolio performance (.6*.5425 + .4*.0703) = .35362 overall return = +17.681% annual return Barbell portfolio 80% safe (40% 12 month tbills, 40% gold, 20% silver) 12 month tbill -> 4.72% and 4.8% (assuming you bought one first trading day january of 2023 and 2024) for total of 9.52% return (not calculating rolling yield for this calculation) -Gold- +43.91% -Silver- +20.94% -20% risk (60% Bitcoin, 20% NVIDIA, 10% NFTs, 10% memecoins -Bitcoin- +461.98% -NVIDIA- +835.8% -NFT Index (using cryptopunks)- +54.17% -Memecoins (using DOGE)- +352.34% Total portfolio performance -(.0952*.32 + .4391*.32 + .2094*.16 + 4.6198*.12 + 8.358*.04 + .5417*.02 + 3.5234*.02)= 1.174318 overall return = +58.72% annual return Barbell Strategy Historical Test #2 -Time period: 06/01/2007 – 06/01/2009 (all price data is daily close unless otherwise indicated) -Traditional 60/40 stocks/bonds portfolio 60% SPX, 40% AGG (iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF) -SPX- -38.77% loss -AGG- -0.34% along with $9.26 in dividend, which is a 4.6% dividend yield, for overall +8.91% gain ((4.6*2)-.34) Total portfolio performance (.6*-.3877 + .4*.0891) = -.19698 overall return = -9.85% annual return Barbell portfolio 80% safe (40% 12 month tbills, 40% gold, 20% silver) -12 month tbill -> 4.98% and 2.17% (assuming you bought one first trading day June of 2007 and 2008) for total of 7.15% return (not calculating rolling yield for this calculation) -Gold- +39.82% return total (19.91% yearly) -Silver- +8.91% return total (4.455% yearly) -20% risk (BTC didn’t exist back then- so for risk, we will substitute for 50% USOIL, which was very highly volatile back then, and 50% VWO, an emerging markets fund, also highly volatile) -USOIL- +11.38% total, for 5.69% yearly -VWO- -26.27% total, for -13.135% yearly Total portfolio performance (.0715*.32 + .3982*.32 + .0891*.16 + .1138*.1 + (-.2627*.1)= 0.14967 overall return = +7.48% annual return if u made it this far, ur gonna make it. re-allocate ur portfolio immediately to the BARBELL and prepare urself for volatility in both directions as we enter a time-period of unseen technological and social change.

JollyDinger's tweet photo. gmgm

probably my favorite thing to talk about rn is portfolio management. its my biggest edge and also what we have been lied to about the most, so i'm doing everything i can to spread the word about the BARBELL

your portfolio will SEVERLY underperform if u don't read what comes next and implement it immediately. here's why (with 2 case studies and data at end) ->

What is the Barbell Approach?

A barbell strategy advocates for dividing one’s portfolio between two buckets on opposite ends of the risk curve- extremely safe and extremely risky. This is a contrarian view, as the typical investment allocation prefers exposure to the middle part of the risk curve (ie the traditional “60/40 stocks/bonds split” that is taught in every single finance course and by financial advisors around the country).

no joke, i talked to several tradfi financial advisors over the last year or two and they still teach middle risk curve bullshit. DONT TAKE THE BAIT!!!

the barbell strategy tends to outperform during periods of volatility, both to the downside and to the upside. as described by Nassim Taleb in The Black Swan, we tend to underestimate the likelihood of the improbable, and thus most of our portfolios are structurally unprepared for that which is unexpected

not only have we experienced an increasing amount of worldwide disruption due to ai proliferation, we are also seeing the breakdown and deterioration of world government due to overspending and ballooning debt. thus, per my view, the only rational portfolio balance to have is one that is optimized for volatility and the unexpected

one of the beauties of the Barbell strategy, and what I believe is my own unique addition to the theory, is that it is scalable. what i mean by this, is that even within the high-risk bucket, you can also divide that bucket into high-risk high-risk, and low-risk high-risk. an example of this would be cryptocurrency being a part of someone’s barbell portfolio in the high-risk bucket, but then that cryptocurrency portfolio is also barbelled between bitcoin as the safe bucket and highly speculative altcoins in the high-risk bucket

what I believe is my unique take on the scalability of the barbell theory will allow for the hyper-optimization of one’s portfolio, making it more robust for systemic risk within the investment buckets themselves, as well as out-performing during times of expansion due to the exposure to extremely high-risk assets

one can weight the high-risk and low-risk buckets differently based on their life goals (ie if u are close to retirement, ur high-risk bucket will be smoller % than if ur early 20s), but for the majority of people what I advocate for is between 70-80% low-risk and between 20-30% high-risk (which is a more high-risk balance than most barbell advocates, who usually advise 10-15% in the high-risk bucket).

below is an example of assets that belong in each bucket. NOTE- 99.99% of equities and corporate bonds have 0 place in the barbell approach

Barbell Strategy Portfolio Allocation Example

Safety bucket - 80% of total net-worth
80% of safety bucket in ultra-safe sub-bucket
-USA T-Bills, laddered from 1mo-10 years with heavier weighting on short-term T-Bills for liquidity sake (fyi- u can buy these directly with 0 counterparty risk from the govt themselves- (https://t.co/37HceAyaXi)
-Land/Primary residence- yes, the market value for this is not safe at all, BUT the real life value of having a primary residence fully paid for is massive, and I would argue that while the fiat value of land is volatile, the real-life value of land is unchanging and constant
-Physical Gold-I say physical gold and not digital (like a gold etf) because there is less counterparty risk with physical gold during periods of instability

20% of safety bucket in risky-safe sub-bucket
-other commodities with higher volatility than gold- Silver, Copper, Oil
-land (non-primary residence- i am only bullish on land in northwest USA rn- ie idaho, east wa/or, montana, dakotas)

High-risk bucket - 20% of total net-worth
-80% of high-risk bucket in safe-risk sub-bucket
-Bitcoin- ALMOST ALL OF UR HIGH RISK BUCKET SHOULD BE BTC
- AI tangential stocks (energy, computer chips), emerging industries stocks (robotics, rocketry). NOT "ai stocks"- will go in depth on why that is later
-NOTE: the portfolio manager can include any other high-risk assets that they might have exclusive knowledge about (for example, pokemon cards, exclusive investment rounds, exotic derivatives, etc).

20% of high-risk bucket in high-risk sub-bucket
-Altcoins, NFTs, Memecoins, angel investing
-whatever degenerate high-high risk gambling u can think of

that's it- that's the ideal portfolio. below is the proof this stuff works the best, both in good times and in bad (NOTE- 2007-2009 comparable we had to substitute other trash in for btc as it didn't exist yet- barbell approach still outperformed massively, but would have outperformed even better if we had access to crypto)

tldr of data below- barbell outperformed 60/40 by +59% apr compared to +18% apr during bull market, and +7% apr compared to -10% apr during bear market.

u are literally lighting ur money on fire if u have not implemented the barbell approach already

Barbell Strategy Historical Test #1

Time period: 1/1/2023 – 12/31/2024 (all price data is daily close unless otherwise indicated)

Traditional 60/40 stocks/bonds portfolio
60% SPX, 40% BND (vanguard bond market etf)
-SPX- +54.25%
-BND- -0.17% along with 3.6% dividend yield, for overall +7.2% gain

-Total portfolio performance
(.6*.5425 + .4*.0703) = .35362 overall return = +17.681% annual return

Barbell portfolio
80% safe (40% 12 month tbills, 40% gold, 20% silver)
12 month tbill -> 4.72% and 4.8% (assuming you bought one first trading day january of 2023 and 2024) for total of 9.52% return (not calculating rolling yield for this calculation)
-Gold- +43.91%
-Silver- +20.94%

-20% risk (60% Bitcoin, 20% NVIDIA, 10% NFTs, 10% memecoins
-Bitcoin- +461.98%
-NVIDIA- +835.8%
-NFT Index (using cryptopunks)- +54.17%
-Memecoins (using DOGE)- +352.34%
Total portfolio performance
-(.0952*.32 + .4391*.32 + .2094*.16 + 4.6198*.12 + 8.358*.04 + .5417*.02 + 3.5234*.02)= 1.174318 overall return = +58.72% annual return

Barbell Strategy Historical Test #2

-Time period: 06/01/2007 – 06/01/2009 (all price data is daily close unless otherwise indicated)

-Traditional 60/40 stocks/bonds portfolio
60% SPX, 40% AGG (iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF)
-SPX- -38.77% loss
-AGG- -0.34% along with $9.26 in dividend, which is a 4.6% dividend yield, for overall +8.91% gain ((4.6*2)-.34)
Total portfolio performance
(.6*-.3877 + .4*.0891) = -.19698 overall return = -9.85% annual return

Barbell portfolio
80% safe (40% 12 month tbills, 40% gold, 20% silver)
-12 month tbill -> 4.98% and 2.17% (assuming you bought one first trading day June of 2007 and 2008) for total of 7.15% return (not calculating rolling yield for this calculation)
-Gold- +39.82% return total (19.91% yearly)
-Silver- +8.91% return total (4.455% yearly)

-20% risk (BTC didn’t exist back then- so for risk, we will substitute for 50% USOIL, which was very highly volatile back then, and 50% VWO, an emerging markets fund, also highly volatile)
-USOIL- +11.38% total, for 5.69% yearly
-VWO- -26.27% total, for -13.135% yearly

Total portfolio performance
(.0715*.32 + .3982*.32 + .0891*.16 + .1138*.1 + (-.2627*.1)= 0.14967 overall return = +7.48% annual return

if u made it this far, ur gonna make it. re-allocate ur portfolio immediately to the BARBELL and prepare urself for volatility in both directions as we enter a time-period of unseen technological and social change.

Nick_Heaney17 retweeted

NO CONTEXT HUMANS

@HumansNoContext

over 1 year ago

His friends are probably the reason why he’s in a wheelchair

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JD Vance

@JDVance

over 1 year ago

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illuminatibot

@iluminatibot

over 2 years ago

This is Alex Jones 21 years ago. In under a minute he covers the globalist agenda, cashless society, open borders, socialized healthcare, global pandemics

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Who to follow

Casual Fox

@CasualF0X

Just a Casual Fox 🦊 Sol OG | JPEG Collector | Certified Degen |

wzrd I trade and hold crypto currency, happily married Alhumdulillah🤲🏽

Nick_Heaney17 retweeted

Stuck in New Jersey

@JP61926104

over 2 years ago

Pray for Israel Drones World War III Iron Dome WWIII MARINES #WWIII Middle East World War 3

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@iluminatibot

over 2 years ago

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Historic Vids

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over 2 years ago

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Science girl

@sciencegirl

over 2 years ago

When you look for a sign

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🔥🗞The Informant

@theinformant_x

over 2 years ago

❗🌋🇮🇸 - Aerial images captured just minutes ago of the newly opened volcanic fissure near Grindavík, #Iceland. It is estimated to be around 3 km long! According to initial information, the eruption appears to be located 3-4 km northeast of #Grindavík, in the eastern part of the Blue Lagoon and at the very important geothermal power station. The fractures are quite extensive and appear to be quite active as the earthquakes continue! A fissure just opened as it was broadcast live on TV in Iceland. Impressive images of this eruption.

$theinformant_x's tweet photo. ❗🌋🇮🇸 - Aerial images captured just minutes ago of the newly opened volcanic fissure near Grindavík, #Iceland. It is estimated to be around 3 km long! According to initial information, the eruption appears to be located 3-4 km northeast of #Grindavík, in the eastern part of the Blue Lagoon and at the very important geothermal power station. The fractures are quite extensive and appear to be quite active as the earthquakes continue! A fissure just opened as it was broadcast live on TV in Iceland. Impressive images of this eruption.$

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Nick_Heaney17 retweeted

Chef José Andrés 🕊️🥘🍳

@chefjoseandres

over 2 years ago

Crazy eruption in Iceland!😞hopefully everyone is safe…Chef Vicky and our Chefs teams filmed this…@WCKitchen as we were there before is ready to help if there is a need….People were Already evacuated many weeks ago from Grindavik @PresidentISL Iceland did good preparing for this event! #ChefsForIceland

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Nick_Heaney17 retweeted

Greg Lukosek

@greglukosek

over 2 years ago

View from the golden circle. The orange glow below northern lights is current volcano eruption #iceland

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End Wokeness

@EndWokeness

over 2 years ago

JFK warned America about "soft, chubby, fat-looking children" in 1962. At the time he delivered this speech, 4% of U.S. children were obese and another 5% were overweight. Today, 19% of children are obese and an additional 16.6% are overweight. He wanted schools to adopt mandatory and strict physical fitness programs to prevent childhood obesity and softness.

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Nick_Heaney17 retweeted

Andrew Tate

@Cobratate

over 2 years ago

This is so sad. The firefighter who saved his life pays the price.

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Nick_Heaney17 retweeted

Collin Rugg

@CollinRugg

over 2 years ago

JUST IN: Vivek Ramaswamy correctly calls the Republican Party the “party of losers” then calls for Ronna McDaniel’s resignation. He also called out the moderators and said they should be replaced by Tucker Carlson, Joe Rogan, and Elon Musk. Epic 🔥🔥🔥 “We've become a party of losers at the end of the day. Is it cancer? The Republican establishment, let's speak the truth.” “I mean, since Ronna McDaniel took over as chairwoman of the RNC in 2017, we have lost 2018, 2020, 2022. No red wave that never came. We got trounced last night in 2023. And I think that we have to have accountability in our party for that matter.” “Look the people there cheering for losing in the Republican party. Think about who's moderating this debate. This should be Tucker Carlson, Joe Rogan, and Elon Musk.