The betting and derivatives market outlook for today’s Fed decision is clear — there is almost no chance of a rate cut today. Here’s a quick summary:
CME FedWatch (based on FedFunds futures) shows a 99.1% chance of rates remaining in the 4.25–4.50% range, while the chance of a hike to 4.50–4.75% is extremely small (around 0.9%)
Forex and Polymarket forecasts, as well as experts like FX Leaders, indicate a 99.9% probability that the Fed will keep interest rates on hold, with only a 0.1% (or 0.0%) chance of a cut today