NikTony

[NikTony @NikTony5]

@Raphael1402X @grok 👍

[NikTony @NikTony5]

I cast my vote for #ShortyAwards Audience Honors! Help us vote and share daily through April 30th! https://t.co/PrHpKHNN1S

[NikTony @NikTony5]

@CryptoVinceTeam @CryptoVinceTeam hi bro, found your tg channel and would like to know if you are interested in cross promotion, reach me out on tg @muxabtc

[Ram Ahluwalia CFA, Lumida @ramahluwalia]

NARRATIVE FOLLOWS PRICE

Remember GDP came in hot last week?

That’s the old narrative.

Now, markets are pricing in a recession (see the 10 year).

This started as a positioning / technical driven correction, and now narrative is attaching.

Let’s talk thru what’s happened…

Several distinct factors…

1) The USD-Yen carry trade unwind is a key part of this - and I will write more about that this weekend.

Macro funds borrow in Yen — rates are cheap there. When you borrow in Yen, you must pay back in Yen.

The Yen shot up in value as the Japan central bank hikes rates, and as the US Fed eases.

That caused the ‘debt’ payable in Yen to spike. At the same time, your dollar denominated assets are worth less.

You can’t hedge out FX risk completely in these carry trades because the cost of hedging undermines the carry trade itself.

(Remember the perfect hedge for an asset is selling the asset.)

When your liabilities are in Yen and the price of Yen is rising, that creates a massive global macro margin call.

2) Positioning

- record call option buying in early July

- Tesla and other meme stocks go parabolic

- Cathie Wood capitulated and bought AI stocks after missing the greatest secular change since the Internet in her ‘Innovation Fund’

- Momentum favorites were crowded. Chipotle’s Forward PE was pricier than $NVDA

- In the background, there has been a Growth to Value rotation.

- Valuations for tech stocks started the year at the 99th percentile plus of valuation. Valuation issues inevitable catch up…

(See $ARM, $SNOW, $PLTR)

3) We had a ‘Trump Bump’ boosting animal
spirits in market

That hit ‘peak’ after the Assassination attempt.

At peak, you can only go in one other direction.

The Trump Bump is materially deflated from just 3 weeks ago - and swiftly.

Here’s the good news.

If you are worried about a crash, the crash already happened.

This will wrap up within days.

Much of the excess optimism has been wiped out.

I see that in multiple measures I look at and will share more this weekend.

You should be more bullish now looking out 1 to 3 months, not bearish.

You should rotate from fixed income into equities — especially US Treasuries that are now yielding much less vs three weeks ago.

What about the ISM and NFP disappointments?

First off, recognize we just had a strong GDP print last week.

And survey data is noisy - based on samples, weather issues, etc.

Corporate earnings are not estimated, unlike these surveys.

The earnings beat rate is strong, the revenue beat rate is OK (at similar historical levels).

Back at the end of q4 ‘21, we saw corporate earnings fade as the stimmy check sugar rush faded.

That’s not happening here.

Notice Capex spend is not rolling over, unlike the end of the DotCom bubble.

Quite the opposite. We saw capEx spend growth from Google, Meta, and Amazon.

Corporates cut employees when profits are contracting…and we see earnings growth.

How about the Consumer?

Real incomes, in aggregate, are also growing.

Yes, it is a K-shaped recovery. That’s OK too.

Productivity growth is strong. The drives Corporate and Consumer Real Income.

Even Government spending is up (much to my chagrin).

So, you have the key drivers of the GDP demand equation up.

Back to the scary reports.

The ISM New Orders indicator, a once time effective leading indicator, has grown less effective.

The US is transitioning to a services economy, less manufacturing.

The ‘Sahm Rule’, triggered by an uptick in unemployment, is driven by an uptick in immigration.

Is there a datapoint that bothers me?

Elevated mortgage rates, and weakness in the housing sector.

I could see chatter about the Fed buying MBS come back; agency MBS is a mispriced asset.

When prices fall, people glom on to the latest narrative.

Recession went from Non-Consensus to Consensus in 3 weeks.

Stay the course.

I’ll have more in the next Lumida Ledger.

[NikTony @NikTony5]

@instagram @instagram need help, my @watchtrillionaire acoount was hacked! changed e-mail and 2FA !

[NikTony @NikTony5]

I earned 8,000 $BLAST in @BLAST_L2's Phase 1 airdrop. Join the mission to UNBANK THE BANKED and earn Native Yield + BLAST in Phase 2!

[NikTony @NikTony5]

Join the fun at @DistrictOneIO, SocialFi and Meme Launcher on @Blast_L2!

Fair launch and grow a coin sparked by social hype and money games — safe, fun, in one click.

I collected 4,541 gems and $OLE rewards from #D1.

Invite: https://t.co/OJwbxWkksB

[NikTony @NikTony5]

#BlitzonBlast #BlitzPoints https://t.co/LPrX0urZCV

[Blitz @tradeonblitz]

1/ YOU ASKED - WE DELIVER. POINTS TIME BLITZERS.

Phase 1: Blast into Blitz 💥
➡️https://t.co/LeDpI4KW4W

Engage. Explore. EARN (points 👀) - Blast your way into the ultimate trader community!

Community Points, powered by @Galxe.

[NikTony @NikTony5]

Trade on Blitz and earn points. Trade spot and perpetuals on a blazing-fast orderbook DEX.
@tradeonblitz
Get in here: https://t.co/hOsPdsZufw

[StakeStone @Stake_Stone]

🎉Omnichain Carnival Wave 1 is now live with early access!

TL;DR

-Early access for Wave 1 starts on 3/26 at 14:00 UTC and lasts for 4 days
-Register during early access to receive a 15% bonus in wave 1
-3% of the total supply will be allocated in Wave 1.

Lead Wave 1 with extra rewards!

Register at: https://t.co/O2Ayn5HGsW

Anticipate Wave 2, plus even more to come.

Learn more about omnichain carnival: https://t.co/IgezMQRz0l

[Ready @ready_co]

Starknet has given 40 million $STRK tokens to Starknet DeFi protocols to give back to the community over the next 6-8 months.

Here’s how to get your share ⬇️

[Ethena @ethena]

Announcing the @ethena public mainnet 🌅

Details on our "Shard Campaign" in the following tweet

[Splin Teron @splinter0n]

"ZK is the Endgame"

$ZKS is loading...? I think the denouement is near.

So, how can you prepare? Start by selecting the best projects from the ecosystem, so you can get multiple airdrops at the same time.

And today, we're going to take a closer look at one of them.

It's all about @HoldstationW wallet, what makes it special?

Holdstation is known for its innovative approach in combining account abstraction with futures trading, aiming to seamlessly onboard Web2 traders to Web3.

And you know what's even more interesting?

Decun update in the final stages, promises a seismic shift in the landscape of Layer 2 networks, especially for the zkSync ecosystem, which stands on the brink of an unprecedented surge.

What are the reasons?

• Highest TPS: Approximately 16 TPS
• Lowest network fees: Around 47k gwei

The recent uptick in daily active addresses within zkSync, reaching new heights since mid-December 2023, is one more point a testament to the ecosystem's robust growth and potential for explosion.

This influx of users and capital spells an exciting era for leading projects, promising not only enhanced activity but also increased revenue generation.

But the focus of attention should be on the highest quality project.

Why Holdstation?

The anticipation around its second $HOLD airdrop (10% of the total supply), coinciding with the $ZKS airdrop, is palpable.

Having personally navigated the wallet, I can vouch for its user-friendly interface and innovative features that stand out starkly against the backdrop of conventional wallets such as Metamask and Trust Wallet.

Let's dive even deeper, you'll realize that you have a rare project in front of you 🤿

@HoldstationW introduces groundbreaking functionalities like:

• Paymaster
• Batch Transaction

This not only subsidizes fees for users but also revolutionizes the way we pay gas fees, offering discounts when paying with stablecoins or project-specific tokens like $uGOLD and $HOLD.

The seamless execution of transactions, without the hassle of approvals or signatures, exemplifies the platform's commitment to user convenience and efficiency.

Moreover, the flexibility to pay gas fees with a variety of tokens, and the particular advantage given to high-volume traders on DeFutures, underscores Holdstation's strategic approach to enhancing user experience and fostering a supportive trading environment.

The traction Holdstation has gained, evidenced by the significant ETH sponsored for traders and the adoption of stablecoins for gas payments, is indicative of the project's success and its pivotal role in the Layer 2 ecosystem.

With Holdstation leading the charge in fee revenue generation on zkSync, as highlighted by platforms like @Defillama, and its commitment to redistributing 80% of its revenue to liquidity providers and $HOLD stakers, the project is not just innovating; it's reshaping the economic landscape of blockchain technology.

Make sure to explore @HoldstationW at @zksync to claim two airdrops simultaneously.

In today's crypto world, being smart in such ways is often the key to maximizing profits.

Thank you for reading up, hope you enjoy it. Follow me @splinter0n for more. Like/Retweet if you want to support me.

[NikTony @NikTony5]

Blaster goes Pew Pew Pew! 🔫 The first and only place to trade, earn, and launch tokens on @Blast_L2!

Join the @BlasterSwap Early Access to instant claim $BLSTR Pre-Token Airdrop!

https://t.co/4ISmO0sJSa

https://t.co/tIru6jwAZG

[BLASTER 🔫 @BlasterSwap]

Blaster is ready to Blast!

We are stepping into the @Blast_L2 Big Bang Competition and announcing the Early Access Airdrop - Phase One!

https://t.co/9sq2m3CLI0

[Reflection🪩 @0xReflection]

In just 10 days, this #crypto wallet went from $176 to $1,810,766!😱

He made 5 trades and BOOSTED his portfolio by +180,991,389.4%

Let's find out HOW he did it..🧵👇

[Rekt Fencer @rektfencer]

$ALEO token confirmed and raised $298M🔥

Want to secure your share of the $ALEO airdrop? There's ONE FREE ACTION you need to take.

Don't wait, mainnet will launch in Q1 2024 👇🧵

[NikTony @NikTony5]

I just had 139 Rainbow Points dropped into my wallet
Everybody has at least 100 points waiting for them, but you might have more!

Claim your drop: https://t.co/9IK24VEp0H

[Layer3 @layer3xyz]

BNB's leading exchange just launched on zkSync Era.

Participate in our newest Quest to experience @PancakeSwap.

https://t.co/yoq7hGfCpE

[NikTony @NikTony5]

Get your Staked ETH token on #Starknet now!

I’ve just made a swap in the ETH-wstETH pool on mySwap as part of the #mySwapChallenge and claimed my unique NFT.

You can do the same at: https://t.co/fmaXYxdxmd

[Stacy Muur @stacy_muur]

This infographic could help you earn over $10,000 in 2023.

Bookmark & RT to perform these actions weekly and qualify for greater potential rewards.