Successful investors think in probabilities and react dispassionately to Bayesian risk management signals.
Unsuccessful investors think in certainties and react emotionally to inaccurately forecasted linear cause-and-effect relationships.
You have a choice. And if you don't make the choice, you will most certainly reside in the wrong cohort and your on-time and comfortable retirement will be severely delayed as a result.
What goes down 👇 must come up 👆
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(1/2) Lots of great work coming out lately on the correlation of Bitcoin with the ISM PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index).
I analyzed the full dataset of the PMI from 1948 - today, and found that we are currently in the LONGEST running contraction (defined by PMI < 50) in the index's history! 🤯
The AVERAGE contraction length is 1.1 years, and we are now 2.92 years into the current one, making this a 3-sigma event (an extreme outlier, by definition occurs <0.3% of the time).
What does this imply? For cyclical time series data, the force of mean-reversion tends to be stronger, the more extreme the outlier is.
To me, this, along with several other macro indicators and political/news headlines, all suggest that we soon move to RISK-ON... with Bitcoin - the king - being a primary beneficiary. WE GO HIGHER.
.@ElonMusk: “I'm not anti-vaccine, but I'm anti-forcing people to take a vaccine, that's for sure.”
COLLEGE STUDENT: “Well, also the COVID vaccine did not work.”
@ElonMusk: “Yeah. And suppressing information about it and side effects; that was terrible. The Biden-Harris administration tried to mandate that any company that has any federal contracts, which is most companies, would be forced to vaccinate everyone at the company or that person would have to be fired. Now thankfully, that was shot down by the Supreme Court. But that's insane. That is a massive infringement on your liberty.”
The arrest of @Durov is an assault on the basic human rights of speech and association. I am surprised and deeply saddened that Macron has descended to the level of taking hostages as a means for gaining access to private communications. It lowers not only France, but the world.
My deepest condolences to the family and loved ones of Corey Comperatore, a former fire chief who was tragically killed at yesterday's Trump rally in Pennsylvania. This morning, his daughter Allyson shared a deeply moving tribute to her father on Facebook, describing how he died shielding Allyson and her mother from the bullets that came at them. "We lost a selfless, loving, husband, father, brother, uncle, son, and friend...the best dad a girl could ever ask for,” she wrote. "He died a real-life superhero."
The impact of the rampant vitriol and divisiveness in today's political and media landscape – and, increasingly, political violence – isn’t isolated to presidential candidates or political parties. As this tragedy shows, it also takes an unimaginable toll on our country's citizens: American families with hearts and hopes, like the Comperatore family.
America has fallen off the precipice, but we can still climb back up. As a nation, we can overcome this. But we need to learn how to better understand and empathize with one another, converse with respectful dialogue, and regard differing viewpoints with dignity and respect.
A GoFundMe has been set up to support Allyson and her family: https://t.co/v9dzrnmLBA
My thoughts and prayers are with the Comperatore family.
The European Commission offered 𝕏 an illegal secret deal: if we quietly censored speech without telling anyone, they would not fine us.
The other platforms accepted that deal.
𝕏 did not.
Fed Chairman Powell finally told the truth. Last week he finally admitted inflation is winning. The Fed can no longer promise I flation at 2% or that inflation is “transitory.” Again he finally stopped lying. Congratulations.
The problem is most people have no idea what the Fed Chairman admitted means to them or them or their families or to the world.
In my simple language it means “We’re F’d.”
As I warned in RDPD over 27 years ago “Savers are losers.” The dollar has lost 95% of its purchasing power since 1913 the year the year the Fed and IRS were formed.
Please wake up and take control of your money and your information.
If you trust our political leaders you are in trouble financially.
Please take control of your financial teachers and your money.
I am a hard, real money, advocate, and I only save real gold, silver, and Bitcoin.
I recommend the same for you and your family.
Radio24syv lavede i går et helt radioprogram, hvor de spurgte en masse mennesker, om de var enige i, hvad jeg her fra min kedsomhed i sygesengen havde skrevet om Nordstream.
Alle politikere sagde nej og mente, jeg var tosset for at skrive det. Det er her jeg er lidt anderledes. Mine kritikere vil kalde mig umoden, impulsiv og uovervejet, og det er sikkert alt sammen rigtigt. Det er formentlig derfor, jeg aldrig bliver til noget.
Men jeg tror på åbenhed og ærlighed. Jeg er led og ked af, at befolkningen føler sig ført bag lyset og af politikere, som siger ting, som de godt ved er forkerte, og som befolkningen godt ved, at politikerne ved er forkerte.
Jeg ved ikke, hvem der sprængte Nordstream i luften. Men jeg tror ikke, der kommer noget godt ud af at benægte, hvordan det ser ud. Folk kan godt tænke, og vi mister deres tiltro, hvis vi ikke er ærlige overfor dem. Det er vigtigt, at befolkningen også tror på os, når vi næste gang skal fortælle dem noget.
Unpopular but true: Bitcoin is the most significant monetary advance since the creation of coinage.
If you don't believe me or don't get it, I don't have time to try to convince you, sorry.
10 things in life that require zero money but will guarantee your success.
- Work Ethic
- Body Language
- Good Attitude
- Students Mind
- Relentless Learning
- Being Punctual
- Keeping Your Word
- Going The Extra Mile
- Stress Tolerance
- Stay In Shape
You have no excuses!!