One of the worst things about Trump is that he’s ushering in more corporate welfare, cronyism, and socialism while parading it under the banner of capitalism, so we end up with all the failings of those ideologies but with a generation of young people blaming the market economy.
What has the Chinese government done for its people?
I'll shut up and let the stats talk.
Stat | 2000 | 2025
Life expectancy 71.4 78.6
Absolute poverty 66% 0%
Nominal GDP $1.22T $19.6T
Higher education 12.5% 61.3%
Highway length 16k km 199k km
Metro network 110 km 11,700 km
Internet users 22.5M 1.12B
Industrial robots 3,000 2.0M+
Annual deliveries 0.2B 216.5B
Solar capacity 0.02 GW 1100 GW
--
Have a nice day.
@ZubyMusic We’re the only ones who don’t require a destructive monetary policy to fund policies that we can’t afford.
Is Ben Shapiro gonna oppose money printing? No, because he needs to fund his wars.
My wife left me today. She said it was because I “never stop talking.” I said the yen carry trade is a $20 trillion leveraged bet that the Bank of Japan will never normalize rates and she said “I’m taking the dog.”
Let me explain to you what I was trying to explain to her.
For thirty years Japan ran rates at zero. Zero. Free money. So the entire planet borrowed yen for nothing and bought literally anything with yield. Treasuries, Mexican peso bonds, Nasdaq, your uncle’s crypto. That’s the carry trade. It’s not a strategy. It’s a short volatility position wearing a business casual outfit.
Then in August 2024 the BOJ raised rates 15 basis points. FIFTEEN. And the yen ripped, the Nikkei fell 12% in a day, and the VIX printed 65. That was the tremor. That was the trailer.
She said “you said this last year.” I said YES AND I WAS RIGHT, THE MARKET JUST FORGOT, and she started packing.
Japan’s debt-to-GDP is roughly 250%. The BOJ owns over half the JGB market. They are the market. There’s no price discovery, there’s a guy in Tokyo with a printer and a dream. Every basis point higher on the long end costs them real money on debt they can never actually repay in real terms. So what do you do when you can’t default and you can’t pay? You inflate. You always inflate. It’s the only tool that doesn’t require anyone to vote.
She said “our marriage counselor thinks you have anxiety.” I said your marriage counselor doesn’t know what the 30-year JGB is doing and she said “NOBODY KNOWS WHAT THE 30-YEAR JGB IS DOING, THAT’S THE POINT, PAUL.”
My name isn’t Paul. That’s how far gone we are.
Anyway I’ve got canned goods, a Kagoshima yield curve chart laminated above the bed, and nobody left to explain it to. So it’s you now. Buckle up.
You've surrounded yourself with too many Yes men.
Think of how much you could improve from constructive criticism.
I propose you hire me as a No man
For 1,000$ a pop, I'll tell you No.
Like this: "No Elon, don't post that it looks like dogshit."
That one's on the house.
I didn't buy a house.
I bought a 30 year short position on the US dollar, and they handed me a house as a bonus.
Nobody understands this trade.
A 30 year fixed at sub 4%. No margin call. No mark to market. Free to prepay. Government guaranteed paper behind it.
Pension funds and insurers pay real money for long duration fixed liabilities. Retail got them for free in 2021 and then spent three years crying about their home value on Zillow.
Here's what people miss:
Rates going up makes you RICHER.
A 3% note in a 6% world trades around 70 cents. If you owe $400k, your real obligation is closer to $280k in market terms. That's equity that shows up nowhere on your statement and is completely real.
Denmark lets borrowers buy the loan back at market price. Americans hold the exact same value. They just can't see it.
And the option runs both ways. Rates fall, you refinance. Rates rise, your liability discounts. You are long optionality in every direction and paid nothing for it.
Which is why prepaying is insane.
A dollar of principal earns exactly your mortgage rate. 3%, illiquid, unrecoverable without a HELOC or a sale.
That same dollar in T bills earns more, is liquid tomorrow, and is state tax exempt.
Every dollar of equity in your house is a decision to lend money to yourself below the risk free rate.
The house produces identical shelter at 3% equity or 100% equity. Equity adds nothing to the yield. It's dead capital sitting in drywall.
The price only becomes a real number on the day you sell. Until then it changes nothing about your cash flow. Nobody can margin call you into posting more.
The only thing that forces a sale is losing your income. And that risk gets WORSE when you've buried your reserves in the walls.
Minimum equity plus maximum liquidity isn't the aggressive position. It's the defensive one.
What you actually bought was the conversion of a variable cost into a fixed one.
Rent compounds at CPI plus, forever. Your P&I is a flat nominal line to 2054. That spread is the entire product. The Zestimate is noise.
And the debt dissolves while you sleep.
25% cumulative inflation turns $400k into $320k of real purchasing power. Payment never moves. If wages track inflation even badly, your payment to income ratio decays every year without you lifting a finger.
Nominal fixed debt is the only liability on earth that shrinks on its own.
Stop watching the asset.
Watch the liability.
When a people are suppressed to the point that speech can no longer be used to settle disputes, the only other option is to use action.
Free speech is not merely a human right, but it also acts as a pressure relief valve that protects the Somalis and other foreign cultures more than they even realize themselves. Similarly, deportations are protecting violent criminals more than they realize too.
History confirms beyond all doubt, that when Americans are pushed into a corner, the reaction will not be proportionate or reasonable...it will be indescribably extreme and very bad things will happen that we cannot predict.
It would be great if we can avoid getting to that point. Not because of a lack of willingness to do what is necessary, but because the instability caused by civil strife is very hard to mitigate. No one should be relishing or celebrating this potential future, but if this horror is what our future will be, it would be better to start from a more advantageous position than we are in right now.
Gold has been stuck since January, and almost nobody explains why correctly.
When the Iran conflict hit, it set off a desperate scramble for dollar liquidity.
Oil traders caught in blown-up positions had to sell whatever they could. Gold was the easiest thing to sell.
At the same time, India and Turkey started quietly pushing their own citizens away from gold to defend their currencies.
Selling pressure on one side, blocked demand on the other. That is the whole story of the last six months.
And when interest rates finally turn back down, that pressure reverses.