Noah Munk

German Marshall Fund of the U.S. | Dean’s Scholar, Johns Hopkins SAIS | China Policy & Economic Statecraft | Mandarin | Writing: Power & Order

[GMF Indo-Pacific @GMFAsia]

“The greater danger is further delay, which reinforces Beijing’s belief that it can influence US arms sales.”

GMF's @BonnieGlaser and @NoahMunk555 argue that holding up Taiwan arms sales weakens deterrence, allied confidence, and cross-Strait stability.

https://t.co/iTrA5ZUT8X

[German Marshall Fund @gmfus]

"The greater danger is further delay, which reinforces Beijing's belief that it can influence US arms sales."

A prolonged hold on a $14 billion US arms package for Taiwan risks slowing the island's defense buildout and raises doubts about US commitments among allies across the Indo-Pacific, argue GMF's @BonnieGlaser and @NoahMunk555.

🔗 Read their assessment: https://t.co/oYzQxf4dv5

[Bonnie Glaser / 葛來儀 @BonnieGlaser]

There are costs to holding back the $14 billion arms package for Taiwan. Read my latest here, co-authored with @NoahMunk555

https://t.co/Dufnajo3Oj

[Noah Munk @NoahMunk555]

The US balks in the face of Chinese economic pressure because the cards are stacked against it.

A comparison of leverage in rare earths and semiconductors shows why the Trump admin was so conciliatory in September and why it will continue that approach.

https://t.co/UB97FoDgR5

[Noah Munk @NoahMunk555]

Catching up after a dry spell for my presence in this app:

See Power & Order for my recent analysis covering Indo-Pacific geoeconomic choke points, the failure of Western cohesion facing Chinese coercion, gray-zone coercion against Taiwan, and more:

https://t.co/OGN5i8wfzJ

[Noah Munk @NoahMunk555]

@RushDoshi Having spent the 2025-2026 academic year studying in China through the Hopkins-Nanjing Center, I can personally attest to both the apprehension that preceded my decision to go and the depth of perspective gained from time on the ground.

[Noah Munk @NoahMunk555]

Full analysis here:
https://t.co/scGi45QYFI

[Noah Munk @NoahMunk555]

5/ Why it matters: Where the West looks for immediate results, China plays a long game — converting visibility into influence over decades.

[Noah Munk @NoahMunk555]

@JohnCulver689 Isn’t a move away from economic performance-based legitimacy already the trend of the times?

[Noah Munk @NoahMunk555]

@isaacstonefish A valuable analysis. However, China has been decrying “American hegemonism” in high-level political forums for decades now; what makes messaging in this case any more influential than simple rhetorical continuity?

[Noah Munk @NoahMunk555]

7/ Full analysis here → https://t.co/oIsuUmylgw

#China #Taiwan #PLA #Geopolitics #StrategicPosturing

[Noah Munk @NoahMunk555]

6/ Understanding Justice Mission 2025 helps decode Beijing’s broader strategy: assert strength, shape perceptions, and delay costly action—keeping the Taiwan Strait tense but stable.

[Noah Munk @NoahMunk555]

Here is the SCMP article:

https://t.co/fGbfYLbZVz

[Noah Munk @NoahMunk555]

Per SCMP, China just banned the export of “dual-use” goods to Japan in continuation of the feud started on Nov. 7 with Takaichi’s remarks on Taiwan. I examine the background of the spat here:

https://t.co/qXtkeNRanP

[Noah Munk @NoahMunk555]

@yishan Possible, yes. Likely, no. Justice Mission 2025 was no more indicative of Chinese intent to move on Taiwan than any military exercise since Lai’s election; or any during the Tsai administration, for that matter.