Noble Predictive Insights

Strategic Research | Trusted Data | Actionable Insights

[Noble Predictive Insights @NoblePredictive]

"Yee is showing why these races have to be judged separately. She is getting more support from Independents than Biggs, Kolodin, or Petersen, and that keeps the superintendent race close even as Democrats lead the other three contests." - @MikePNoble

Full Report: https://t.co/7419hlWnvI

[Noble Predictive Insights @NoblePredictive]

Both constitutional amendments maintain majority support among Nevada likely voters, with Question 6 (Abortion Rights) leading 57% to 34% and Question 7 (Voter ID) leading 58% to 37%.

Full Report: https://t.co/im5cj0Pxz9

[Noble Predictive Insights @NoblePredictive]

President Donald Trump is 12 points underwater on job approval in Arizona, standing at 44% approval and 56% disapproval, driven by a 69% disapproval rating among Independent voters.

Full Report: https://t.co/HKR83IdKQf

[Noble Predictive Insights @NoblePredictive]

President Donald Trump is 16 points underwater on job approval in Nevada at 42% approval and 58% disapproval, with 68% of Independent voters disapproving of his performance.

Full report: https://t.co/im5cj0Pxz9

[Noble Predictive Insights @NoblePredictive]

In the closest statewide contest on the ballot, Republican Kimberly Yee holds a narrow 2-point edge over Democrat Teresa Leyba Ruiz for Superintendent of Public Instruction, leading 48% to 46%.

Full Report: https://t.co/HKR83IdKQf

[Noble Predictive Insights @NoblePredictive]

Incumbent Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo and Democratic challenger Aaron Ford are deadlocked at 47% each in Nevada's gubernatorial race, with 4% remaining undecided among likely voters.

Full Report: https://t.co/im5cj0Pxz9

[Noble Predictive Insights @NoblePredictive]

"Hobbs has Democrats locked in and a wide lead among Independents. Biggs is winning most Republicans, but the defections matter in a state this competitive. The larger Republican base is not enough to put him ahead of the coalition Hobbs has assembled." - @MikePNoble

Full Report: https://t.co/7419hlWnvI

[Noble Predictive Insights @NoblePredictive]

"Utah gives Trump a favorable electorate, but not a free pass. Independents are strongly opposed to him, and a third of Republicans disapprove. And as we see here, that is enough to leave a Republican president underwater in a Republican state." - @MikePNoble

Full report: https://t.co/ooweEJ2eSM

[Noble Predictive Insights @NoblePredictive]

Democrat Katie Hobbs holds a 6-point lead over Republican Andy Biggs in the Arizona gubernatorial race, leading 51% to 45% with 3% undecided among likely voters.

Full Report: https://t.co/HKR83IdKQf

[Noble Predictive Insights @NoblePredictive]

With one-third of Utah likely voters reporting they have already cast their ballot, early voters skew heavily against Trump at 38% approval and 62% disapproval, while voters who have yet to cast a ballot are split evenly at 49% approval and 49% disapproval.

Full Report: https://t.co/ooweEJ2eSM

[Noble Predictive Insights @NoblePredictive]

President Donald Trump is 8 points underwater on job approval in Utah, standing at 45% approval and 53% disapproval, driven by heavy opposition from Independents at 72% disapproval and Democrats at 99% disapproval, alongside 34% disapproval among Republicans.

Full report: https://t.co/ooweEJ2eSM

[Noble Predictive Insights @NoblePredictive]

"Amendment B has a coalition problem. Democrats and Independents oppose it, and even Republicans are more likely to vote no than yes. It’s hard to build a winning coalition when you’re trailing in every party." - @MikePNoble

Full Report: https://t.co/2HS9Xqjfue

[Noble Predictive Insights @NoblePredictive]

Amendment B trails by 22 points among Utah likely voters heading into Election Day, with 56% voting no, 34% voting yes, and 10% undecided. Opposition leads across every political party, with 82% of Democrats, 58% of Independents, and 48% of Republicans opposing the measure.

Full Report: https://t.co/ooweEJ2MIk

[Noble Predictive Insights @NoblePredictive]

Water security remains a dominant issue for Nevada voters. Nearly half of registered voters (48%) say they are very concerned about how ongoing growth impacts the water supply, while another 35% are somewhat concerned.

Full Report: https://t.co/p0qsoZS7DY

[Noble Predictive Insights @NoblePredictive]

"The economic-development case has an audience, but it does not win once voters weigh the resource costs. Across Nevada, Arizona, and Utah, the public is asking leaders to show how data-center growth will fit within real limits on water, power, and infrastructure." - @MikePNoble

Full Report: https://t.co/Xe5QFG62km

[Noble Predictive Insights @NoblePredictive]

"Parties usually appreciate having a friendly wedge issue on the ballot, to juice support for their team. This time, the wedge issues happen to cancel each other out, leaving campaign strategists from both sides likely wishing they had kept their powder dry." - @MikePNoble

Full Report: https://t.co/U7Yn1BvM6d

[Noble Predictive Insights @NoblePredictive]

Nevada fits a broader regional trend across the West regarding data center expansion. Pushback in Nevada mirrors recent polling in Arizona (57% oppose) and Utah (60% oppose), highlighting widespread concern over shared resource limits

Full Report: https://t.co/p0qsoZS7DY

[Noble Predictive Insights @NoblePredictive]

Support for limiting data center growth spans all political parties in Nevada. Democrats favor limits over development by 58 points, Independents by 37 points, and Republicans by 12 points.

Full Report: https://t.co/p0qsoZS7DY

[Noble Predictive Insights @NoblePredictive]

Nevadans rate Joe Lombardo’s handling of the state economy substantially higher than Donald Trump’s handling of the national economy (45% approval vs 38% approval).

Full Report: https://t.co/pNj6SUyxgZ

[Noble Predictive Insights @NoblePredictive]

Voters are virtually deadlocked on who they trust to handle Nevada's remaining key issues:
Economy / Cost of living: Ford +2 (37% vs 35%)
K-12 Education: Ford +2 (37% vs 35%)
Tourism & business climate: Lombardo +2 (35% vs 33%) Water supply & managing growth: Lombardo +1 (35% vs 34%)

Full Report: https://t.co/U7Yn1BvM6d