NOLA Analytics

Analysis on Pelicans and Saints (and a hint of Alabama) mostly from a stats/math/analytics background

[NOLA Analytics @NolaAnalytics]

Here are the top 25 teams by power rating based on Vegas Point spreads heading into the season:

For teams in the AP Poll not power rated in top 25:

Illinois ranked 12, Power Rated 31
Indiana ranked 20, PR 30
Iowa St ranked 22, PR 28
Boise St ranked 25, PR 39

[On3 @On3]

BREAKING: Preseason College Football AP Poll🚨

https://t.co/8qUSrKdAim

[NOLA Analytics @NolaAnalytics]

I bet this is what gets NBA to update flagrant suspension guidelines for the playoffs. 4 flagrant points in 23 games is a lot, but probably not worth getting suspended for Game 6 of the Finals (and therefore making refs miss fouls to avoid getting someone his 4th flagrant)

[Keith Smith @KeithSmithNBA]

I don't want to have a whole ref conversation, but you can't miss that landing zone foul. That was really bad officiating.

[NOLA Analytics @NolaAnalytics]

It’s dumb that that would get Wemby suspended and because of that, it’s dumb that the Knicks get punished because the NBA have to avoid getting Wemby a flagrant.

[NOLA Analytics @NolaAnalytics]

(This is why the flagrant suspension rules for the playoffs is dumb. That’s absolutely a flagrant on Wemby, but they’re absolutely not calling that to get Wemby suspended for the next game. It probably gets called if Wemby isn’t already at 3 points for the postseason)

[NOLA Analytics @NolaAnalytics]

I still occasionally think about Willie Green spending the Suns series bringing Devonte Graham off then bench before Jose Alvarado for 5 straight games and starting Jaxson Hayes over Trey Murphy every single game.

[Christian Clark @christianpclark]

Knicks were down 20 when Jose Alvarado rolled in this 3. Alvarado had 8 points, 3 assists, 0 turnovers, was a +17 in the fourth quarter. Undrafted sub 6-foot guard shifted a Finals game.

[NOLA Analytics @NolaAnalytics]

*NOT A COMPLAINT OR TALKING POINT, JUST POINTING OUT*

It's crazy that in a 1 point game with 1 second left in the NBA Finals, you have two different fans simultaneously touching the ref.

[NOLA Analytics @NolaAnalytics]

So much of the NBA's entire 2026 season came down to Keldon Johnson scoring 11 points on 62% TS in Game 7 vs OKC.

[Carson Breber @Carsobi]

Keldon Johnson in the…
Regular season: 13.2 PPG on 61.3% TS
Playoffs: 7.8 PPG on 48.8% TS
Finals: 3.8 PPG on 36.3% TS

[NOLA Analytics @NolaAnalytics]

This is one of the most incredible shots I’ve ever seen

[NBA @NBA]

JALEN BRUNSON MAKES IT A 1-POINT GAME 😱

UNDER 3 TO GO IN GAME 4 ON ABC.

[NOLA Analytics @NolaAnalytics]

Knicks shot 23 free throws to the Spurs 6 in the first half

[NOLA Analytics @NolaAnalytics]

Knicks shot 23 free throws to the Spurs 6 in the first half

[SNY Knicks @sny_knicks]

Mike Brown is not happy with the officiating after Game 3:

"I never thought I'd be in the NBA Finals and see a team get 24 free throw attempts in the second half to another team's eight."

[NOLA Analytics @NolaAnalytics]

You gotta lay a lot of this at the feet of Mike Brown. You can’t let your team be this focused on their victim complex with the refs, let alone stoke it yourself.

[NOLA Analytics @NolaAnalytics]

The Knicks have a home court disadvantage right now. The fans are so worked up over the refs that it’s clearly working its way down to the players.

[NOLA Analytics @NolaAnalytics]

It's been shielded by the fact that Brunson is 12-25 for 32 points in the 4th quarter, but him going a combined 18/56 for 50 points with 11 assists vs 12 turnovers through the first 3 quarters is probably the biggest reason the Spurs have even had a chance in Games 1-3.

[NOLA Analytics @NolaAnalytics]

Even removing his monster Game 7, SGA was 44/116 for 146 points with 53 assists vs 19 turnovers through 6 games vs San Antonio.

Brunson is 30/81 for 82 points with 13 assists vs 13 turnovers through 3 games.

Brunson has been outright bad by nearly every measure.

[Law Murray 💊 @LawMurrayTheNU]

Through 11 quarters of the NBA Finals, the Spurs are outscoring the Knicks by 14 points when Jalen Brunson has been on the floor

Knicks outscoring Spurs by 24 points with Brunson off the floor.

[NOLA Analytics @NolaAnalytics]

I loved going to Bama during the peak of the Saban era, but man I’m jealous of the current students who get to live through this basketball and baseball era.

[Alabama Baseball @AlabamaBSB]

FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE 1999, THE CRIMSON TIDE IS HEADED TO OMAHA!

#RollTide

[NOLA Analytics @NolaAnalytics]

Friends don't let friends get fooled by fake March/April games.

[NOLA Analytics @NolaAnalytics]

Adding to this, the Hawks finished the season 19-6.

But they went 11-0 vs tanking teams in that stretch.

And then of their remaining 8 wins, 5 came with the opposing teams resting players or with their best player injured.

[SPORTS DRINK: Café & Comedy Club @SprtsDrnk]

he willie green fr fr

[NOLA Analytics @NolaAnalytics]

Sorsby getting insane CLV on his TTU to win Big 12 bet at + money

[Pete Thamel @PeteThamel]

NEWS: A judge in district court in Lubbock County, Texas, has granted the injunction requested by Texas Tech QB Brendan Sorsby. He’s set to be eligible for the 2026 season.

[NOLA Analytics @NolaAnalytics]

Shamelessly find judges who will rig things for you until further notice.

[NOLA Analytics @NolaAnalytics]

We'll see how this plays out, but I continue to believe the biggest misstep Alabama took with the Charles Bediako situation was not just sticking with the judge who was willing to rig it for them.

It's just clearly the right move in this economy.

[NOLA Analytics @NolaAnalytics]

We are nearing Mike Breen triple bang territory

[NOLA Analytics @NolaAnalytics]

Spurs did something (maybe by accident) that I've always thought is probably sharp down 10ish late:

you need quick possessions and variance so giving up a couple open 3s early in the shot clock and praying for some misses probably isn't bad win probability maximization.