terry

Permabear trying to be long (probably short tho). Not financial advice

[OddStats @OddStats]

Wait, what the hell is going on here?

The S&P500 (SPX) was up +17.1% in 28 trading days as of Friday's close. Absolutely absurd.

But what if I told you it was also the first time a ramp up that hard (+17.1%), that fast (<=28 trading days) had happened since the beginning of computerized trading (1982) where EITHER:

- VIX was under 22 (it closed Friday at 17.15)
OR
- SPX closed at a new all time high close (it got close in 1991)

Freak out all you want about analogs to 1999, this has never happened before in most of our lifetimes.

Should you buy puts? Calls? A gun? Pack of hyenas?

What do I care?

GOD, I missed me.

[litquidity @litcapital]

Investors watching a shoe company attempt to pivot into AI compute infrastructure

[Fed @lord_fed]

Taco Tuesday

[SpotGamma @spotgamma]

This is downright freaky.

From Feb '25 - Mar 31, the SPX was down 9%, &amp; closed on the JPM 5,565 Put on 3/31

Then came April 2nd "Liberation Day". The SPX subsequently dropped 10%

2026: SPX -6% from Feb, rallying to the JPM put.

Trump speaking on the war tonight, 4/1 at 9PM

[Heisenberg @Mr_Derivatives]

Someone just DM’ed me this:

The most wild thing I have seen.

Lol!

But seriously, hope Tiger is ok.

[Chris Murphy 🟧 @ChrisMurphyCT]

I was in a 2 hour briefing today on the Iran War. All the briefings are closed, because Trump can't defend this war in public.

I obviously can't disclose classified info, but you deserve to know how incoherent and incomplete these war plans are.

1/ Here's what I can share:

[Michael Green @profplum99]

While we will eventually correct, it will because we change how we invest.

The era of mean reverting strategies began to fail in 1975 with the introduction of passive investing. By the 1990s, just as academics began to tout the historical outperformance of a statistical mean reversion theory (“value”), the growing popularity of passive investing changed the markets.

In 2006, the federal government passed legislation that locked us into this structure. The markets no longer “mean revert.” They are momentum and concentration algorithms.

And they will run until they stop. Violently.

[terry @NonTargetTerry]

@heynavtoor Appreciate the prompts and it all seems logical/helpful, but what're your returns since you've implemented these? Are you running a unique portfolio for each of these Claude strats?

[Godel Terminal @GodelTerminal]

South Korean Newspaper

[terry @NonTargetTerry]

@lord_fed

[Brad Setser @Brad_Setser]

China and Irish tax avoidance are more or less is the entire global goods surplus; the EU's surplus goes away without Ireland, and China now dominates goods trade*

* (Korea &amp; Taiwan contribute, but not on the same scale)

1/

[Michael Pettis @michaelxpettis]

Important article. As more and more economists and policymakers begin to realize that large, persistent trade imbalances are indeed a problem for the global economy, Martin Wolf calls for a tax on capital inflows. https://t.co/sM8wu7RIUs

[terry @NonTargetTerry]

@BijuSDamodaran @dampedspring Not if growth slows

[terry @NonTargetTerry]

@EffMktHype

[terry @NonTargetTerry]

@rev_cap China stimmy hopes now that tariffs have actually hit the tape... tho my record is pretty ass on timing China

[Michael Taylor @Mike_Taylor1972]

$PCT
Call me at $50bn mkt cap.
Then we'll talk.

[Hao HONG 洪灝, CFA @HAOHONG_CFA]

A Chinese FOMO speculator.

[terry @NonTargetTerry]

@KevinTartis @michaelxpettis @markets It’s my understanding most EM economies have needed to have a strong mfg sector to grow the middle class in their path to developing. India had previously tried to skip this step by focusing on tech, so this could actually be a positive to reduce inequality as mfg supplies jobs.

[terry @NonTargetTerry]

@Mike_Taylor1972 how we feelin on PCT? Am I buying low (for very LT) or averaging in a loser?

[terry @NonTargetTerry]

@Mike_Taylor1972 What do you make of using the warrants ( $PCTTW ) to invest in $PCT?