Norbert Talik

Energy&Gas Market Analyst at Synthos. Opinions my own

[Ira Joseph @ira_joseph]

On average, June is the highest injection month of the year. If June storage injections behave like April/May, such sub-300 Mcm/d injections will leave storage well below 70% utilization. Just to reach even 70%, injections at the 5Y avg. will be necessary. @ColumbiaUEnergy

[Ira Joseph @ira_joseph]

These numbers would not be considered low if not for Europe's 13-15 Bcm storage deficit. LNG imports would have to come in 80-90 Mcm/d higher to make up this deficit by end Oct. and that will be difficult to achieve if Asian netback premiums to Europe persist. @ColumbiaUEnergy

[Marhelm @MarhelmData]

Maersk, one of the largest and oldest shipping companies, abandons Strait of Hormuz transits completely

[Liz Thomas @LizThomasStrat]

Based on current trends, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) would reach operational minimum levels around August. The drawdown pace is surpassing what was seen during the SPR release authorized by the Biden admin in 2022.

[Javier Blas @JavierBlas]

Oil producing countries ex-Hormuz are starting to delay maintenance to keep pumping at max throughout the summer.

Kazakhstan is postponing maintenance at its top oilfield until 2027. As a result, CPC Blend crude is trading in the physical market at a 4-year low differential.

[Javier Blas @JavierBlas]

The World Meteorological Organization see now a 80% chance of El Niño conditions will emerge between June and August and a 90% probability of this happening thereaft
https://t.co/xg1oGVOtNF

[Javier Blas @JavierBlas]

Another hefty SPR release last week:

According to DoE data, the SPR put in the market ~8 million barrels last week (~1.1m b/d), slightly less than previous weeks (8.6m; 9.9m; and 9.1m).

At the current pace of releases, the SPR will drop below the Biden low by late next week.

[Yan Qin @YanQinyq]

The #EUETS surplus indicator: TNAC for 2025 has been released

It stood at 1023.5 Mt, falling below the buffer of 1096 Mt for the first time

190 Mt EU ETS allowances (intake rate 18.6%) to be placed into the Market Stability Reserve between September 2026 and August 2027

[Yan Qin @YanQinyq]

📈EU carbon price rallied above €80 to the highest level since February

Main drivers:
-heatwave in many European countries
-concerns of further delay to 2026 #EUETS free allocation with renewed pressure from some member states
-pick-up in speculative buying interests

[Jack Prandelli @jackprandelli]

🚨🇺🇸Cheniere just signed Bechtel to build Train 7 at Sabine Pass.

6 MTPA of new LNG capacity.

The expansion of the world's largest LNG exporter is now officially underway.

Cheniere Energy, Inc. has issued Bechtel a limited notice to proceed early engineering and procurement work begins now.

🔸FID on Phase 1: expected by early 2027.
🔸Phase 1 capacity: 6+ MTPA.
🔸Current Sabine Pass capacity: 30+ MTPA operational.
🔸Train 7 adds another 20% on top of an already world-class facility.

That's how urgent this is.
Cheniere isn't waiting for paperwork.
It's moving.

The context:

→ Europe: 35% storage, 145 BCM to inject before November

→ Qatar: 17 cargoes force-majeure'd and counting

→ Hormuz: semi-closed, 95% below normal traffic

→ Sabine Pass: already 30+ MTPA operational, now adding 20% more

Every molecule of new US LNG capacity coming online in the next 3 years lands into a structurally undersupplied market.

Train 7 fed by Haynesville and Permian gas.
The molecules exist.

Cheniere is removing the last bottleneck between US shale and European storage tanks running on empty.

🔍Discover the 8 stocks best positioned as Cheniere expands and Europe bids for every available cargo are named in my latest article.

Link in the comments 👇

[Javier Blas @JavierBlas]

Dated Brent, the oil market’s top physical benchmark, fell today to a 2 ½-month low of ~$96.9 a barrel.

[The Hormuz Letter @HormuzLetter]

BREAKING: Iran rejects today's Axios report claiming a US-Iran deal or MOU has been reached, saying "Axios is fake news" and Iran "will not sign any agreement that does not align with our interests," explicitly rejecting the current deal terms. Iran also does not accept the proposed 60 day ceasefire extension due to continued violations of it and will "respond to any further violation of the ceasefire," per two members inside the negotiations.

Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has also not approved or agreed to the proposed agreement and terms.

[Rory Johnston @Rory_Johnston]

US petroleum stocks fell by another 17.4 MMMbbl (inc SPR)

Crude stocks fell by -12.4 MMbbl (-9.1 SPR, -3.3 commercial), while both gasoline and diesel also declined by -2.6 and -2.1 MMbbl, respectively.

Crude stocks plunging fast, and gasoline crashing below seasonal lows.

[Javier Blas @JavierBlas]

My colleagues at Bloomberg News have now confirmed the story first reported by Axios. The Associated Press, Reuters and Agence France-Presse are all reporting it. All with the same caveat: the deal is awaiting final approval by President Trump.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: April PCE inflation, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, rises to 3.8%, the highest since May 2023.

Core PCE inflation rises to 3.3%, the highest since October 2023.

The Fed's top inflation metric is nearly double their target.

Inflation is back in full-swing.

[Francesco Sassi @Frank_Stones]

Storage Crisis: German Grid Operators Warn Current Rules Fail to Secure Winter Gas Supplies

Germany’s current gas storage system is insecure, according to German transmission system operators.
🧵

[First Squawk @FirstSquawk]

U.S. MILITARY CONDUCTS NEW STRIKES ON IRAN-WSJ

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

LUFTHANSA: NO SUMMER JET-FUEL RISK

Lufthansa said it sees no risk to jet-fuel supplies this summer despite the Middle East conflict.

Chief Commercial Officer Dieter Vranckx said suppliers have not warned of shortages, even though about a quarter of Europe’s jet-fuel imports pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

To reduce disruption risks, Europe is increasing fuel imports from North America and Africa, while refineries are boosting production.

Lufthansa also said it does not expect more flight cancellations linked to the conflict. Passengers affected by any disruptions would be rebooked or refunded.

[Javier Blas @JavierBlas]

Another mammoth SPR release last week, with a flow equal to ~1.3m b/d (nearly 9.1 million barrels over the week).

The weekly release is the **second highest on record**, just a notch below the all-time high set the previous week of 9.9 million barrels.

[Francesco Sassi @Frank_Stones]

QatarEnergy Extends Force Majeure to Mid-August as Edison Scrambles for U.S. LNG

No liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Qatar will ease the pain for Europe or Asia anytime soon, according to QatarEnergy, one of the largest LNG players in the world.
🧵