Normal Guy

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वीर भोग्या वसुंधरा

[Normal Guy @Normal_2610]

This Week of Market Outlook is Now Published :)

Read about many businesses, a few I liked this week, and some interesting IPOs that matter. You'll also get an idea of where the money is flowing, along with the India Market Health Report.

https://t.co/fyCNwn6CR4

[Normal Guy @Normal_2610]

EU allows 0.01 mg per kg of tricyclazole in rice. India allows 3.0 mg per kg, putting its safe level 300x above EU limits

From 2015 to 2025, tricyclazole set off 97 food safety warnings on Indian rice. Thiamethoxam added another 60 warnings. 69% of EU rice failures come from pesticide traces. Farmers use what Indian rules approve. Port labs clear them, EU labs reject them, because both sides measure safe differently.

Record $12.5bn in rice exports changes nothing. Your safe sits 300x above your buyer’s safe

India non basmati rejections in EU rose from 3 in 2020 to 37 in 2024. Pakistan went opposite way, from 54 down to 2. India’s failure rate climbed 12x while Pakistan brought its down by 96%. Both countries grow similar rice, face same EU rules.

Pakistan started testing at farm level. India still tests at port. When container fails, nobody traces which farm grew that rice. India shipped 124k tonnes to EU in 2019, now ships 262k. More volume means more rejections.

Pakistan fixes quality while India ships volume.

APEDA approved 126 labs for rice export testing. Only 50 can test pesticide residue, just 47 on FSSAI books. GMO testing runs from Delhi and Hyderabad only, so exporters in Punjab ship samples hundreds of km before clearing cargo.

Rice passes from farmer to middleman to trader to processor. Spray records end at first sale. 86% of farmers work on plots smaller than 2 hectares. BasmatiNet tags fields with GPS but covers 200k tonnes yearly.

Basmati exports cross 4m tonnes, leaving gap of 20x. Fix starts at soil, not port

[Normal Guy @Normal_2610]

Sunflag total market value sits near ₹7,400 crore right now. It owns 11.89% of Lloyds Metals, worth roughly ₹11,900 crore at current prices

So market is pricing Sunflag own steel business at negative ₹4,500 crore that same steel business earned ₹3,956 crore in revenue last year with 12% operating margins. Loans went from ₹270 crore down to ₹155 crore. Cash from operations doubled to ₹390 crore. CRISIL gave it AA minus rating with stable outlook.

When company is worth less than what it holds, somebody is not counting right

Sunfla FY24 annual report talked about car parts, round bars, and steel for engineering use. Latest report from FY26 looks nothing like it. Company now has Electro Slag Refining, Vacuum Induction Melting, and Vacuum Arc Remelting, processes that make metals for fighter jets, space rockets, and nuclear power plants.

In just one year, it created Inconel 625, AMS 6509, valve steel 21 4N, and 17CrNiMo6 for forging. Japan’s Daido Steel invested equity in 2014 and shares aerospace metal science. Reports do not change this fast without board vision changing first.

India made ₹1.78 lakh crore worth of defence goods last fiscal year. Private companies produced 24% of that, their highest recorded share. Defence ministry proposed giving 10% extra weight to locally made alloys in new buying rules.

Government set aside ₹6,322 crore for specialty steel under PLI. Sunflag got approved as vendor by VSSC, LPSC, HAL, BrahMos, DRDO, DRDL, NPCIL, Collins Aerospace, GE Gas Power, Adani Defence, and Solar Industries.

That list covers space, nuclear, missiles, and global buyers in one company. Getting such approvals takes years of testing.

[Normal Guy @Normal_2610]

@ColDhruv 😉

[Normal Guy @Normal_2610]

Shitty music. I don't know what these guys are smoking, but it would have been much better if they had chosen competent writers and composers instead of this

Not a single song impressed me. First, they started copying stories, and now they've started copying entire old compositions without even trying to add a touch of originality

And bringing Hans Zimmer into an Indian movie like Ramayana? Indian music has its own traditional essence, cultural depth, and emotions. How will he fully understand the emotional connection that Indian composers have with our traditions? And putting Qawwali in Ramayana?

WTF, man! How can you mess this up so badly?

It almost feels like they're intentionally trying to create controversy. Even someone with basic common sense should understand this.

Well, above all, intention matters, and here, the whole approach feels careless to me.

[T-Series @TSeries]

Rang hai rang hai Mangal rang hai, Prem ke rangon ka sangam

Song out now 🕉️
https://t.co/qeuOwrGqLl

[Normal Guy @Normal_2610]

@bharatVermab It's my View it's personal, if yu not like block me

[Normal Guy @Normal_2610]

Buying Properties in India is like Hard Game Anyday yu get scammed and Regulators Don't care Much :)

[Monica @musing_monica]

The worst investment I did is buying a property of Godrej- big brand bigger, bigger fraud.

Bought a property in 2023, they told we will get possession in 2026 mid, forget the possession, they are telling they want to add additional floors and that too 8-9 floors, without adding any extra plot to the project.

From past 3 months the CRMs has bullied, disturbed, bribed and what not for us to sign the consent form to modify the RERA, as a person who works a full time job, this kind of harassment takes a toll on mental health, as now I am paying full EMI and possession not sure when they are going to give(maybe 2028(Rera date)), the constructions they have left in mid. For Phase1 owners also they are pushing the handover deadline.

This is so disappointing! and now I am stuck, so whenever you decide to buy a property in Godrej, think 100 times before.

[Dr. Brahma Chellaney @Chellaney]

Building an "Axis of Influence," Creating an "Axis of Resistance"

Last week’s state visit by Maldivian President Mohamed Muizzu to Pakistan, where he held discussions with de facto ruler Asim Munir and signed 20 agreements spanning defense, maritime security, cybersecurity, AI and intelligence sharing, has raised significant geopolitical red flags in New Delhi.

It signals that, despite India’s overtures and concessions (including bilateral bailouts, debt extensions and currency swaps to shore up the Maldivian economy), the Islamist-leaning Muizzu has not fully abandoned the anti-India plank that helped catapult him to power. He took office in November 2023 after campaigning on an “India Out” platform.

As president, Muizzu has softened his public rhetoric toward India. But after securing critical financial lifelines from New Delhi for his cash-strapped country, he concluded free-trade agreements with China and Turkey.

Muizzu’s agreements with Islamabad, including commitments to deepen defense and intelligence ties with Pakistan, underscore that his underlying strategy remains one of strategic hedging against India.

Bringing Pakistan into defense capacity-building in the Indian Ocean, where the Maldives sits astride key sea lines of communication (SLOCs), directly challenges India’s strategic depth and naval surveillance in its immediate neighborhood.

As a hedge against India, Muizzu appears to be facilitating a Sino-Pakistani “Axis of Influence” along the SLOCs in the Maldives’ strategic periphery. This could be viewed in New Delhi as an attempt to construct an “Axis of Resistance” against India.

[Neil Borate @ActusDei]

Brazil voted Lula back in on Sunday, 51.8% to 48.2%. In thin overnight trading the real fell about 9%, and a Tokyo-listed Brazil ETF opened down 11%.

Does this change why I own Brazil? Not much.

I hold Brazil for three reasons.
1) It is one of the cheapest large stock markets in the world.
2) It is a commodity exporter and can benefit from a commodity supercycle.
3) Its real interest rate, the policy rate minus inflation, is close to 9%. You get paid well to wait.

Both were true before the first round. Then Flávio Bolsonaro’s surprise lead sent stocks up 7.7% to a record. That jump was a bet on reform, even though Flávio had rejected pension reform. That is the part now coming off.

A Lula win probably keeps spending higher and hence rates higher for longer. So the 'rate-cut' catalyst looks more uncertain. The Brazilian Congress though leans right and can block him. One has to wait and watch.

[Normal Guy @Normal_2610]

The flow of MONEY in last 2 Week :)

[Normal Guy @Normal_2610]

Market Outlook for the Last Two Weeks is Now Live!

I couldn't cover last week because of Durga Puja, so this edition combines updates from both weeks. Not much excitement this time, a rather boring couple of weeks, but still some interesting developments worth reading.

https://t.co/YYiiGcKUjL

[Normal Guy @Normal_2610]

Market Outlook for the Last Two Weeks is Now Live!

I couldn't cover last week because of Durga Puja, so this edition combines updates from both weeks. Not much excitement this time, a rather boring couple of weeks, but still some interesting developments worth reading.

https://t.co/YYiiGcKUjL

[Normal Guy @Normal_2610]

Idealist of this Week is Now live :)

In the current market, I believe risk management and stock selection will matter more than ever

https://t.co/eEX0ox1eXu

[Normal Guy @Normal_2610]

@JayMehta_27 Yup

[Normal Guy @Normal_2610]

India stopped giving permits for new HFC gas factories after December 2027 that means no one can build new plants

SRF runs 52,000 tons per year of HFC capacity and is pushing to 65,000+ tons before that door closes. So SRF locks in permanent supply while competitors cannot enter. Chemicals revenue grew 26% in Q1 FY27 to ₹2,315 crore, and that was before quota scarcity even started.

SRF also began selling R-467A, first Indian refrigerant gas with global approval

SRF knows all 8 ways to put fluorine into chemical compounds. Most Indian competitors know only 2 that gap gives SRF ability to make products across full range. Simple refrigerant gases sit at bottom and earn less.

PVDF for batteries sits in middle and earns more. Ultra pure HF for chip making sits at top. SRF more than doubled its investment in next generation gases, raising HFO capex from ₹1,100 crore to ₹2,285 crore. SRF chemicals growth target for FY27 is 15% to 20%

India battery cell scheme has one strict rule. Every approved manufacturer must use 60% Indian made materials within 5 years.

Battery cells need PVDF, plastic binder that holds battery chemicals together. They also need battery grade foil. Very few Indian companies can make these today. SRF is building PVDF plant right now and expects real volumes by FY28. India’s battery demand is projected to reach 220 GWh by 2030.

Cell makers will have to buy PVDF from Indian suppliers, and SRF starts first

[Normal Guy @Normal_2610]

Yttrium oxide costs $7.90 per kg inside China and $441 outside that is 55 times more for same material, Before April 2025, prices were similar everywhere

China made 270,000 of 390,000 tons of rare earth oxides in 2025, which is 69% of global total that lead came from decades of separation investment western countries skipped.

Digging yttrium is simple but processing it needs plants that barely exist outside China.

Lynas in Australia, ReElement in US, and South Africa at Phalaborwa are all starting yttrium projects. Combined output stays tiny against 10,000 to 15,000 tonnes in annual global demand

Yttrium has no replacement in chips, lasers, or jet engine coatings. New supply needs years nobody has

[Normal Guy @Normal_2610]

China became largest car exporting country in 2023, overtaking Japan. Gap keeps widening every quarter.

But stock prices tell different story. Chinese auto stocks have lagged global auto stocks since early 2023.

Markets price what sales charts miss. Industry margins halved between Q1 and Q2 this year. Mining and battery companies grabbed most of profit, with mining margins at 20.5% while car assembly earns low single digits.

[Normal Guy @Normal_2610]

For more detailed Version READ Intelligence :)

https://t.co/KiuwLY94Af

[Normal Guy @Normal_2610]

India used 2.1m tonnes of copper in FY26, growing 12% over last year that growth was faster than GDP at 7.7%

Many talks about data centers needing copper. In India, data centers made up less than 1% of total copper use. Biggest demand came from building roads, bridges, and power lines, where copper use grew 29%. Cars and trucks followed with 14% growth after slow FY25

Copper demand in India is growing because of construction work, not data center hype. Not watch wrong part of market

Government released copper vision paper saying India will need 4 to 5m tonnes of copper per year by 2035. Right now India uses 2.1m tonnes. By 2047, need reaches 9 to 10m tonnes

India made only 0.7m tonnes of refined copper at home in FY26. Only 1 government company mines copper here, covering just 4% of what country needs. Sterlite closure in 2018 removed 56% of refining output.

Government paper admits India may import 91 to 97% of copper raw material by 2047, Domestic mining cannot fill that gap

world copper supply will fall 10m tonnes short of demand by 2040. Mining output peaks near 2030 at 33m tonnes. Demand reaches 42m tonnes same decade. New mine takes 17 years on average from discovery to first output

India alone needs equivalent of 1 giant new mine every year for next 20 years. Biggest copper mine in Congo pushed its own target back by full year.

World is not opening enough new mines. India has not begun facing how large its own supply gap will get.

So what next - Recycle or find the alternative Aluminum or something else

[MINING.COM @mining]

India’s copper demand grew 12% to 2.1 million metric tons in the year to March 2026, outpacing the country’s 7.7% GDP growth.

Data centers made up less than 1% of it, according to the International Copper Association India.

Infrastructure led instead, rising 29% and accounting for 22% of domestic consumption. Automotive demand rose 14% after a sluggish FY2025.

Growth accelerated from 9.3% the year before.

Source: ICA India via The Economic Times