Fourth argument goes on the Housing Market. It has plummeted. NAHB and the Housing Market leads Unemployment.
As Housing is hit by higher rates - people start to save their money. They consume less, which deteriorates the Economic environment. It does not happen instantaneously - but eventually.
The bigger the decline in NAHB - the larger the rise in Unemployment.
.... and the current decline in NAHB is larger than the decline before the Financial Crisis.
Just like in 2007, we haven't seen the strong move in Unemployment .... yet!
Second argument goes on the Yield Inversion.
Yield inversion is a signal of coming Recession. Not immidiately - but eventually.
Analysts have observed this signal in 2023 - but due to impatience dismissed it. This is a great mistake.
From the bottom of the Yield Inversion, we normally see 12-15 months before a Recessions sets in. The bottom was in June 2023.
This signal is very much alive!
For two decades, Bruce Greenwald teaches Value Investing at the Columbia Business School.
He taught legendary investors such as Li Lu how to invest and outperform the market.
Today, we go through the Class Notes of Bruce Greenwald’s Columbia Class👇🏼
I asked, “What company is worth less than $10 billion today but you think could be worth $500+ billion in a few decades?”
I received 710 answers
Here are 20 top stocks that have 50x+ potential:
Some thoughts on mean reversion and the Power Law; Four reasons why certain companies' size and profitability seem to defy capitalism's law of gravity:
https://t.co/2WD083Rdiz
I’ve gotten a lot of bad advice in my career and I see even more of it here on Twitter.
Time for a stiff drink and some truth you probably dont want to hear.
👇👇
9) Men för många bolag så kommer en minskning av churn ha en större inverkan på bolagets lönsamhet än att endast växa kundstocken. Studier visar att en 5%ig ökning i customer retention rate ökar ett bolags lönsamhet med 25-95%.