North Fist

[Mr. P @ProfitCircle_]

$ETH, Liquidity & Alt‑Season Conditions – Explained

Look at $ETH Liquidity chart the same way we did for the $SPX: liquidity regimes matter. If you're waiting for Alt‑season since last proper one in 2020-21, watch ETHEREUM more closely than $BTC. It’s a better barometer for Alts performance.

Let's see the pattern of when Alts last took off... There are only two true Alt‑season periods to learn from: 2017‑18 and 2020‑22. In both cases, Bitcoin rallied first and then slowed while capital rotated into smaller coins.

• 2017‑18: Money supply was high and liquidity was loose. That was enough for a decent Alt‑season.

• 2020‑22: Liquidity wasn’t just loose, it was very loose. The money supply expanded, the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet and the U.S. dollar index $DXY were falling, and short‑term interest rates (2‑year yield) were dropping. Those combined factors created a monster rally in Altcoins. A drop in Bitcoin dominance followed, signalling that traders were rotating into riskier assets.

So why was 2017‑18 only “loose” while 2020‑22 was “very loose”? Because in 2020‑22, even though money supply wasn’t as high as 2017‑18, the $DXY and 2‑year yield were dropping and that’s more important than raw money supply. A falling balance sheet and lower yields add more fuel to liquidity than money printing alone.

We don’t bother with 2010‑13 data because Crypto (BTC) was born during a QE environment. To compare apples to apples, we start from 2016 onward.

Why Money Supply alone isn’t enough?

Money supply matters, but it’s not everything. For example, in 2024 the money supply was rising, and $BTC did fine, but $ETH and most altcoins didn’t. They need a special cocktail: loose money supply plus falling yields and a weakening $DXY. BTC can rally in tighter conditions; Alts can’t. The higher you go on the risk curve, the looser the liquidity you need.

What about now (2026)? Right now liquidity is very tight:

• $DXY is moderately high (not supportive).
• Money supply growth is weak.
• The 2‑year yield is elevated and stubborn.

Even with FED pausing its balance‑sheet tightening (QT), the overall mix remains restrictive for alts. That’s why there’s no real Alt‑season yet—and why even $BTC has struggled recently. Though, the Bright Spots:

• The FED’s balance sheet is no longer shrinking aggressively.
• Money supply looks like it could start improving (though it might take a recession or market crack to trigger it).
• $DXY is stable, and while it might bounce (a “dead‑cat” rally), it’s not in a runaway uptrend. This is also mentioned in Report 2-B.

I can’t predict the 2‑year yield with confidence. It depends on too many factors. But until it moves lower, liquidity stays tight.

So what’s the play?

• Don’t expect an Alt season soon. Altcoins might front‑run improving liquidity and rally before conditions fully loosen, but that’s usually after a scare (a spike in yields or DXY).
• Survive the scare. A mid‑year “2‑year yield scare” or DXY spike could be the positioning opportunity before the real easing cycle.
• Be selective. Out of thousands of Alts, only a handful will truly perform. $ETH is the safest bet if you want exposure; it tends to lead Alt‑moves. And when the right conditions arrive, Alt gains can embarrass $BTC and BTC gains can embarrass the S&P 500's.

In Summary: Know the right Alt‑season conditions—as 2017‑18 and 2020‑22 taught us—and compare them to today’s tight regime. Until liquidity loosens again, focus on surviving and positioning.

Now, you're equipped with far more knowledge, hence far more power, than majority on X shouting "ALT SEASON!! ALT SEASON!!!" in literally every other post.

[North Fist @NorthFist1]

@getcryptofast 401k that's what I gotta say 😎
@NightWizard0 @jacquihurley

[Getcryptofast @getcryptofast]

🚨 GCF Volume Guess Giveaway 🚨

Guess the total trading volume processed through @GetCryptoFast on May 1st (in USD) for a chance to win 1,000 $AI! 💰

To enter: 👇

1️⃣ Tag two friends who want to try @GetCryptoFast for fast, easy, and safe crypto purchases

2️⃣ Comment below with your guess for GCF’s volume on May 1st

3️⃣ Join our Telegram: https://t.co/QwpzPV8Je5

🎉 The person who guesses the closest volume wins!

⏳ Last day to submit your guess: April 30th

[North Fist @NorthFist1]

@FlourishingAI @bellpackard034 @stephencrose
Get involved guys!
And have you seen the roadmap??
OmniscientAI!!! 🤖🧠
This is crazy. I think this is potentially the biggest opportunity in crypto right now. Nothing else has this value prop! Do it 😉😎💸

[Beyond Infinity @SergeantSagely]

@TheMoonCarl You should buy a secret bag of @FlourishingAI

Doing real world volume of 1Million$ a week but massively undervalued M/C of only 1.5M
% of real world goes to buy back and burns
Check it out

[North Fist @NorthFist1]

@CryptoNobler done

[0xNobler @CryptoNobler]

Giving away a private key to one of these wallets.

Want to help someone start fresh and finally win big in crypto.

Like, retweet, and comment 'done' for a chance to win.

Random winner in 24 hours, must be followed.

[North Fist @NorthFist1]

@CraicCrypto Check out this bold NFT - 'https://t.co/BTv3BE4esI' shines bright in a futuristic blue backdrop, a little missing 'p' and all! No fees no hassle @KoinosNetwork, keep the chain going by passing it on. Click to claim! https://t.co/6bUcnyX8hL 👍

[Getcryptofast @getcryptofast]

🪙 GetCryptoFast is a Decentralized Crypto Fiat On-Ramp

❌ We don't store store crypto centrally.
✅ We source liquidity from multiple providers aggregating the best prices across the top 10 crypto exchanges worldwide & then we deliver your purchased crypto to your non-custodial wallet.

👌You Keep Control of Your Crypto.
📨 We just Deliver it to you, Fast.

Sign up today at https://t.co/rVnGQjHJgq Powered by @FlourishingAI

[North Fist @NorthFist1]

@getcryptofast Loving this

[North Fist @NorthFist1]

Getting it ooooon @FlourishingAI
Christmas tree time
@bellpackard034 @prriorities

[North Fist @NorthFist1]

@getcryptofast ya super fast

[Getcryptofast @getcryptofast]

GetCryptoFast is a FIAT onramp that cuts out the middle man

No waiting, no stress! ⏱️

Buy crypto instantly with your bank card and get it sent to your wallet within minutes

GetCryptoFast = Your Crypto, direct to You, Fast🚀🚀

#Buy #Crypto #Fast #InstantCrypto #Fiat #OnRamp

[North Fist @NorthFist1]

@FlourishingAI @getcryptofast Superb stuff

[North Fist @NorthFist1]

@getcryptofast nice

[Getcryptofast @getcryptofast]

Get Crypto Fast is excited to announce our #Referral Program

Earn 0.4% #Commission in #USDC every time someone purchases #Crypto from our Fiat on-ramp after signing up via your unique referral link

That's 0.4% of the total spend on ALL their purchases!!!
This is an incredibly generous referral program

Put your Get Crypto Fast Customer ID in the below link & share
https://t.co/zluAMeXney

Auto payout to your wallet on #Polygon network once you reach 20$ in Commission

[North Fist @NorthFist1]

@FlourishingAI @cryptopoie @izzkyh @kbultinck Shame I didn't win 😅 Nice comp though

[North Fist @NorthFist1]

@FlourishingAI I'm in!

[North Fist @NorthFist1]

@FlourishingAI haha loving this

[North Fist @NorthFist1]

@FlourishingAI Great stuff @FlourishingAI