Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate and author of "Thinking, Fast and Slow":
"You have two minds. one is fast, certain, and almost always wrong about money. the other can actually do the math, but it is lazy and shows up late. I won a Nobel proving the casino makes its entire living in the gap between them."
this free talk is the Nobel laureate himself explaining why your gut is the most expensive thing you own, and it has been free for years.
at the board it's simple. Kahneman split thinking into two systems. System 1 is instant, effortless, and wildly overconfident. System 2 can actually compute the odds, but it is slow and hates being used, so it usually just rubber-stamps whatever System 1 already decided. You feel the answer first and invent the reasons after. Every casino, every hot tip, every "act now" is timed to close the trade in that first second, before the part of you that can do math ever wakes up. That's the whole "gut instinct", minus the marketing.
Kahneman spent fifty years proving this and put it in one book in 2011. Same point as my article above: the house does not beat you with better odds, it beats you by reaching your fast mind before your slow one arrives.
the science is free and half the world has read the book. what nobody can sell you is the one-second pause that lets System 2 catch up before you click. That pause is the entire edge, and almost nobody takes it.
🚨 A Vida Oculta de Isaac Newton
Isaac era alquimista e ocultista, vivia dentro do círculo secreto dos adeptos, principalmente a Royal Society.
Escreveu muito mais sobre alquimia e ocultismo do que sobre física, esse lado foi escondido com medo de ser destruído/morto, só veio a público após sua morte.
Reserve um tempinho pra assistir, demorei um tempinho para legendar tudo, são 59min de muita informação.
Salve esse tweet!
This video of Latvians singing The Lord's Prayer is so unbelievably moving and beautiful that I am going to pin it for a quick and easy timeline cleanse when needed. Bookmark this.
The CEO of Palantir - a $400 BILLION company that builds AI for Western militaries - sat down in Germany and said the quiet part out loud about AI, the far right, and why Europe is unraveling.
- he has a PhD in philosophy and runs one of the most powerful defense companies on Earth
63-min of Alex Karp saying things no other tech CEO will say on camera
bookmark & watch - the most unfiltered take on AI and power right now
Joe Blitzstein, Harvard statistics professor:
"Jane Street pays $600K for people who can do one thing in their head: compute the expected value of a bet before they take it. I teach it free at Harvard. skip it and you're the casino's favorite customer."
this free lecture holds the entire "edge" every casino and every fund quietly runs on, and the man teaching it put his whole Harvard probability course online for free, where millions have watched it.
at the board it's simple. expected value is every outcome times its probability, added up into one number that tells you what a bet is worth on average. the roulette wheel sits at minus 5.26 percent, so every dollar you push across the table is worth about 94 cents back to you and the rest to the house. it never changes and it never has to. that's the whole "edge", minus the marketing.
expectation goes back to Pascal, Fermat and Huygens in the 1650s. it has been free for almost 400 years. same point as my casino piece above: the house wins because its number is positive and yours is negative, trade after trade.
the calculation is free and every fund runs it on every position. what they cannot sell you is the honesty to compute your real edge instead of the one you wish you had. that is the number that actually decides who goes broke, and no course can make you face it.
the finance kids everyone respected in college made $130k at morgan stanley
the quiet physics kids nobody paid attention to made $700k at firms most people have never heard of
jane street. citadel. two sigma. hudson river trading
they don't hire from career fairs. they recruit from math competitions and algorithmic programming contests
the screening is 4 areas: combinatorics, coding, quantitative reasoning, strategic thinking
same problem types recycled every cycle, same format every hiring round
the preparation path is fully public, costs nothing, and takes 6-9 months
a kid from a no-name school who grinds this for 9 months
has outperformed ivy league grads who walked in expecting their resume to carry them - pedigree matters less than the problem-solving ability
most people spend 4 years networking their way into banking for $130k
the people who looked in a different direction spent 9 months and landed 5x the compensation
the resources to do this have been publicly available for years
save this and start training your mind
the difference isn't intelligence
it's that nobody showed you where the real opportunity was
اعرف أحد الفضلاء لديه ذاكرة حفظ قوية، وقدرة عجيبة على استيعاب المعلومات واسترجاعها في أي وقت يريد.. عندما سألته عن السر ذكر لي أنه يمارس طريقة مشابهة للطريقة التي تحدث عنها "جوردن بيترسون" في هذا المقطع:
The (new to the US) Olylife Frequency Devices that I got within the last 4 months are game changers and doing miracles for people blending PEMF and Terrahertz.
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I have used a wide variety of frequency devices over the years and these are now my top most effective and affordable.
Frequency/Light/Sound are the future of medicine.
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Humanity will split into two. They are already aiding the rise of a new human race, and the steps were eerily and accurately described in 1983 by Michio Kushi.
From ultra-psychonotization and controlling the population with chemicals from 2000 to 2020, to the creation of artificial intelligence and robotic workers, to merging humans with AI, controlling emotions through waves, satellites, and technology, and ultimately to the creation of a new human race.
The artificial spirit versus natural creation. It is Biblical.
Now do you understand the concept of Neuralink and Starlink? Do you see what is happening?
This went super viral on tiktok so sharing here
The realization that made me walk away from $1 million when I was 25 (& forever changed my career path)
كونور نيل هو أستاذ في IESE يقضي 25 عام في إثبات أن الحظ ليس مجرد صدفة:
إنه يسافر عبر الأشخاص والمحادثات.
كشف عن 7 طرق لمضاعفة الحظ الذي يصل إلى حياتك:
1/ تعرّف على شخص جديد كل أسبوع.