Analyst not Advocate

@notadvocate as geopolitical Analyst, Also, @bandoolafilm for history/film; @amashinafilm for Zulu Wars; and

[Analyst not Advocate @NotAdvocate]

@SO2_Optimism Dividing the future into specific scenarios and allocating probabilities is v. useful. But if you have 3 scenarios and the most likely is 40% then it is still more likely that something other than the most likely scenario is going to occur.

[Analyst not Advocate @NotAdvocate]

@Charlie533080 @COLRICHARDKEMP You might both be right. At the top level IDF go to an unprecedented effort to avoid civilian casualties whilst destroying Hamas. Very difficult. But IDF do not have a grip at junior level where casual violence ignores ROE often from boredom or worse. Pretty sure about this.

[Analyst not Advocate @NotAdvocate]

@Edeaulx Snap!! I wrote a thesis using BBC monitoring. The issue (later on) was what gets translated. Sensibly enough effort is concentrated on current priorities (known unknowns) which leaves gap for the unexpected. Big big fan of open source.

[Analyst not Advocate @NotAdvocate]

@Charlie533080 1.Punitive force has neutralised Egypt, Syria (& Jordan). 2. IDF Inf is limited. (Lebanon 2005) hence 1000lb bombs. 3. Israel tried a 2 state-soln & gave up Gaza. 4. Secular Palestinian resistance has become something else. Israel has few choices. Reason is no longer a currency.

[Analyst not Advocate @NotAdvocate]

@Edeaulx Re staged footage. Did you catch the Hamas fighter in pristine white pumps. Looked odd.

[Analyst not Advocate @NotAdvocate]

@IsabelOakeshott Re india. Maybe but they did just change their currency re issuing new larger notes. It was not well done as the new notes did not fit in cash machines. But they were doing something.

[Analyst not Advocate @NotAdvocate]

@Edeaulx @sadarlo1 MSM report as fact what cannot be known. Ie casualty details straight after IDF strikes (eg “50% children”. ) With Israel they quite rightly caveat: IDF says…. But in Gaza they state figures as fact. Hamas has excellent info ops and this is the price of reporting from Gaza.

[Analyst not Advocate @NotAdvocate]

@Charlie533080 @EternalJNCO Israel might well ‘offer’ Gaza back to Fateh and use Abraham-accords states money to squeeze out Iran. Gaza could become a Saudi/Iran contest. Problem is Qatar who is ‘close’ to Iran. Undermining PLO with Hamas has obvs not worked. Still Israel has some post conflict options.

[Analyst not Advocate @NotAdvocate]

Great piece Faysal. I was missing your thoughts. I feel I have an answer to my Cantab Thesis question of 30 years ago. ‘Hizbullah: Regional cats paw or independent actor.’ Hizbullah have, for now, prioritised their Lebanese interests over their regional relationships.

[Faysal Itani @faysalitani]

I wrote my thoughts on Hassan Nasrallah’s speech, which I sense has been somewhat misunderstood.

[Faysal Itani @faysalitani]

I wrote my thoughts on Hassan Nasrallah’s speech, which I sense has been somewhat misunderstood.

[Analyst not Advocate @NotAdvocate]

@Edeaulx @BBCNews @deborahturness ITV the same. Some events just look staged. An itv crew only gets to ride in an ambulance in zgaxs with Hamas blessing. Key is who had the Final Cut. I would like to know.

[Analyst not Advocate @NotAdvocate]

@Charlie533080 IMHO there is a difference. Part 1 defeat the enemy. Happening in Gaza Happened in Afghan in weeks. Israel competent at Pt 1. Part 2 Win the peace so defeated enemy is not recreated. NATO poor at PT2 in Afghan. Israel always terrible at Pt2. But you can’t skip Pt1.

[Analyst not Advocate @NotAdvocate]

He certainly did his duty. I wrote this about him when some of his papers came up for sale last year. He does not alas feature in our film. https://t.co/HUdlVZdc6W

[Analyst not Advocate @NotAdvocate]

@Edeaulx Agreed. Hamas are nihilist. the Islamist strand of Palestinian resistance is quite new and many argue it was initially encouraged by Israel to undermine Fateh. However, Hizbullah, Nasrullah, in fact did say he regretted what Iran ask of them in 2006.

[Analyst not Advocate @NotAdvocate]

@Charlie533080 @MarkUrban01 Hizbullah has to balance Lebanese interests and the demands of Iran. After 2006 Nasrullah said given the consequences, he would not have done Iran’s bidding. Also, in 2006 the Shia fled north but this time they may be blocked = civil war. Hizbullah faces a tough choice.

[Analyst not Advocate @NotAdvocate]

@Charlie533080 Re Ww2 Likewise AQ. Destroying AQ was a reasonable aim. But then DFID etc added all kinds of other ‘reform Afghanistan’ tasks which were not relevant, not resourced and not military. If the threat is clear, destroying it is a legit aim. Winning peace is seperate and follows.

[Analyst not Advocate @NotAdvocate]

@Charlie533080 But: In WW2 aim was to defeat Germany and later unconditional surrender. No idea how or what should follow. Same here. Destroy Hamas is clear and sufficient. Stop Hamas resurrecting is for later. (I’d keep Von C out of it. Not relevant and IMHO over quoted and weakens arguments)

[Analyst not Advocate @NotAdvocate]

@JMPSimor The direct answer is pretty simple. Because the first narrative Ie IDF bombing was widely accepted and impacted the diplomatic activity of Biden and others. Second, it is very hard to displace a narrative if the truth comes along later. Both IDF and Hamas understand info ops.

[Analyst not Advocate @NotAdvocate]

@nicholadrummond Not sure but could be the Israelis want Fateh back in charge in Gaza. I wonder if that is their end game. Also they have deterred all their Arab neighbours but not yet Hamas. I am unclear how popular Hamas are in Gaza. The Israelis probably know and hope to exploit.

[Analyst not Advocate @NotAdvocate]

@pinstripedline Yes but govt bought this on themselves by using ‘holding a COBR’ as a political comms tool. Ie “ the PM chaired a COBR” meeting……….Ah so the government-is-governing and decided to use a special room with some extra comms kit. The very existence of COBR mtg used to be secret.