Husband, father, soccer player, public servant, financial advisor w/ @rwbaird. Combining 20y of nuclear industry exp with a passion for financial wellbeing.
@JonLuskin @PJMiguel5 @PhysicianOnFIRE Similarly I could send you a fund manager we all know who has been around for 80+ years and beats the indexes on 90% of their strategies over their lifetime. It probably wouldn’t look the same over the last 20 years exclusively for reasons I’ve stated earlier.
@JonLuskin @PJMiguel5 @PhysicianOnFIRE I wasn’t trying to sell anything to you. I run portfolios using a variety of strategies based on the client’s preferences. Sometimes that’s an index approach, sometimes it’s not. But as a data nerd I hate looking at a 20-year set and making conclusions about the next 20 years.
@JonLuskin @PJMiguel5 @PhysicianOnFIRE So the hypocrisy there is stating that looking at history is a bad way to judge active returns but a good way to judge passive returns. The truth is we know nothing about what will work tomorrow. Equal weighted S&P? Low vol international? Active small cap growth? Managed futures?
@JonLuskin @PJMiguel5 @PhysicianOnFIRE Many active funds with long track records outperform their “indexes” when you go back to the .com crash since they had a more risk-managed approach. S&P index funds have had a great 20 years, but I’m not willing to make a blanket statement that they will always be best.
@JonLuskin @PJMiguel5 @PhysicianOnFIRE That is a rather broad statement since it neglects what strategy the “active” fund is targeting. Passive funds have had a good run, but they only do one thing well: dump money into 10 tech stocks. What happens when that strategy stops working?
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