The market didn’t follow seasonality very well this year.
But the VIX sure as hell did. 🫣
Look at the major volatility pops:
March 📈
June 📈
August 📈
October 📈
All showed up almost exactly where VIX seasonality suggested volatility should increase.
But now we have something different:
A November VIX spike that wasn’t really on the seasonal schedule.
That makes the next move very interesting.
If the seasonal pattern starts working again, I see two possibilities:
The market gets one more fast flush that justifies this VIX spike.
OR
Fear has already overshot, the market stabilizes, and VIX gets absolutely crushed into the part of the year where volatility historically falls.
Seasonality is one of many things I look at. But after watching VIX respect this roadmap almost all year, I’m definitely not ignoring what normally comes next.
$VIX $QQQ $SPY