NULL

[NULL @NullBullBear]

IMO, the bear market of 2025 has begun this week.

[NULL @NullBullBear]

@drunkonqqq No. I plan to either short or long SOXX.

Long energy is the same trade as short tech similar to how long software is the same trade as short AI/semis. If I didn't have access to shorting or inverse etf, I would use energy and software instruments.

[NULL @NullBullBear]

Outlook for next 2 months:

We had one of the largest momentum crashes in history. It's comparable with Nasdaq 2000 crash and ARKK 2021 crash.

Both had a bounce to the midpoint where it failed and made a new low. I expect something similar in SOX in the next 2 months.

[NULL @NullBullBear]

@drunkonqqq RS = Relative Strength.

You just see it in the charts. I use tradingview but any charting platform works.

Right now, SOXX is below 50D while QQQ is above 50D and hence it's showing relative weakness while in March 2026, semis were showing relative strength against QQQ and SPY.

[NULL @NullBullBear]

@drunkonqqq US Memory (MU, SNDK) is following Korea and Korea is playing out like the 2015 Chinese bubble so far and that 2015 chart is a good roadmap for US memory.

https://t.co/GNadXInF8B

[NULL @NullBullBear]

Kospi bubble is playing out like the Chinese 2015 bubble.

After the bubble pops, straight drop from ATH to 200D and then a bounce to 100D. Kospi is getting closer to its 100D resistance.

No positions but curious to see what happens next in Kospi. I lean towards bounce failing.

[NULL @NullBullBear]

@drunkonqqq You mean, the down move stops here and we break to the upside in coming weeks? It's possible but SOXX needs to show RS which it hasn't and hence breakdown is more likely. In August, I expect us to ping pong between 50D and 100D so no real breakdown yet

Yes, Mu and other lower.

[NULL @NullBullBear]

@drunkonqqq Yeah. I booked partial profits on shorts today. Leaving the rest for 100D below.

[NULL @NullBullBear]

@drunkonqqq On first close above 50D, I close my short position and on 2 closes above 50D, I start scaling into longs.

[NULL @NullBullBear]

SOX is at a critical junction right now - just below 50D. I expect it to fail so if we get another test of 50D next week, I'll be taking a short position. If i'm wrong, I'll flip long.

Most traders are expecting SOX to break out but I expect a breakdown.

Expected path:

[NULL @NullBullBear]

There are few names that have strong charts - DELL, HPE. When the sector is weak, even the strong names get dragged down. If you want to play these names, the right way to buy them is on weakness.

These are my current thoughts and subject to change as the market evolves.

[NULL @NullBullBear]

Kospi bubble is playing out like the Chinese 2015 bubble.

After the bubble pops, straight drop from ATH to 200D and then a bounce to 100D. Kospi is getting closer to its 100D resistance.

No positions but curious to see what happens next in Kospi. I lean towards bounce failing.

[NULL @NullBullBear]

IMO, the bear market in KOSPI has begun this week and going to decline 70+% before end of 2027.

US Memory and Storage stocks peaked today.

Many (not all) optics (LITE) and btc minor DC stocks (IREN) have peaked.

Last bull semi leaders e.g. NVDA, AVGO, CLS have also peaked.

[NULL @NullBullBear]

@scooterflu Yes. I’m not doing much these days. Waiting for a fat pitch.

[NULL @NullBullBear]

@scooterflu @Daniellasoul Yes but sold SOXX today.

Yeah, the money is rotating but I don't expect it to have a durable rally because there is nothing special happening with software (unlike AI). One Anthropic headline can lead to a big gap down. Software stocks benefiting from AI are likely to do well.

[NULL @NullBullBear]

I know it sounds crazy right now but i'm expecting $SMH to reach 800 (slight overshoot) before Sept.

~15% correction to 10W MA in June after it reaches $600.

My thesis is SMH 2026 == Nasdaq $IXIC 1999-20'.

I know i sound like David Hunter but don't underestimate this strength.

[NULL @NullBullBear]

Got great entries with good position sizing in leading AI stocks last week on Monday near the bottom.

Fidelity accounts up 7 figures today.

$SMH can do what $IXIC nasdaq did late 1999-2000. Lot of similarities.

Top positions: $SNDK, $SOXL and AI agentic and optics names.

[NULL @NullBullBear]

Great interview by @GavinSBaker on YT https://t.co/wIwPDVJpcp and his point is that there is no negative fundamental that can explain the AI sell off. He is right but initial sell offs after a big run up are always due to a shift in human thinking and fundamentals follow later.

[NULL @NullBullBear]

If you're confused by this recent AI sell-off even though fundamentals are still strong and getting stronger, read this thread.

Basically, enough investors have changed their mind on the future of AI investments from thinking +ve to -ve and the current fundamentals don't matter.

[NULL @NullBullBear]

Markets are driven by human thinking.

Why do stocks top when fundamentals are good?
People change their mind first before fundamentals take a turn.

Why are stocks going up when XYZ bad (Covid,Tariff) is happening?
Because people have changed their mind from thinking -ve to +ve.