Number Nuffy

Aussie Punter, Research Driven Picks, Aiming To Make You Money This AFL Season

[Number Nuffy @NumberNuffy]

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[Number Nuffy @NumberNuffy]

All bets for today are posted in my discord! Invite is in my pinned posts. :)

[Number Nuffy @NumberNuffy]

0.3 Units (Sportsbet)

AFL
Hawks vs Dogs
SGM
@ $7.25
Sportsbet

Here’s the free hit on Sportsbet that I’m riding tonight. 🙂

[Number Nuffy @NumberNuffy]

2.25 Units

AFL
Hawks vs Dogs
Connor Macdonald
19+ Disposals
@ $1.75
TAB

Analysis Below: Actually really like this spot for MacDonald for 20, but we can buy a disposal at TAB for 19. Had 23 against the dogs last time they played this year, and has hit this in 9 of his 12 games this season. The main factor though is seeing the similar players that have played against the dogs and what their numbers were. The high half forward role seems to be getting great numbers against the dogs. De Goey with 30, Warner with 20, Papley with 23, Mannagh with 21, Ginni with 28 and Jagga with 25. Only need 19 here from MacDonald.

[Number Nuffy @NumberNuffy]

2 Units

AFL
Hawks vs Dogs
SGM
@ $1.80
TAB

Analysis Below:
Liking the Bont tonight as I don't see a tag coming his way, seeing this as a bounce back spot for him after the pies game, seeing as though they allow the 5th least disposals to inside mids. Taking away the game he was tagged by Mullin, and the game against the lions where he had 46% CBA, he has hit this in 9 of his last 10 games. Pairing this with Freijah for 14+ as he has hit this in 34 of his past 35 games. Another factor is that Freijah and the Bont have decently positive correlation between disposals with 58% of games with their disposals moving together with an r value of 0.445.

[Number Nuffy @NumberNuffy]

2.25 Units

AFL
Hawks vs Dogs
SGM
@ $1.72
Sportsbet

Analysis Below:
Pretty straight forward reasoning here. Has hit in 9 of his last 9 games. Hawks can be quite leaky to inside mids aswell. Hawks won by 40+ last time they played. Though they are missing some players, so are the dogs, so I can’t see a 70 point swing in the dogs favour.

[Number Nuffy @NumberNuffy]

2.25 Units

AFL
Hawks vs Dogs
SGM
@ $1.75
TAB

[Number Nuffy @NumberNuffy]

+7.7 units profit for the night. Unreal stuff to see the $13 multi get up in the last 5 seconds. 4/4 for the game! ✅✅.

[Number Nuffy @NumberNuffy]

0.2 Units

AFL
Crows vs Cats
SGM
@ $13.25
Sportsbet

Some angles I like tonight. Thought I’d wrap them up in a multi and have some fun watching it.

[Number Nuffy @NumberNuffy]

2 Units

AFL
Crows vs Cats
SGM
@ $1.95
TAB

[Number Nuffy @NumberNuffy]

1.5 Units

AFL
Crows vs Cats
SGM
@ $2.10
TAB

[Number Nuffy @NumberNuffy]

2 Units

AFL
Crows vs Cats
Brayden Cook
Over 16.5 Disposals
@ $1.86
Sportsbet

Analysis below:
Buying low here with Cook. Had 21 against the cats earlier in the season. Had had 2 tough matchups leading into this game with the cats who allow the 3rd most in the league to wingers.

[Number Nuffy @NumberNuffy]

The month of May comes to an end. We end up +25 units in the profit, with a 12.8% ROI. Really happy how we went this month. Onto June!

[Number Nuffy @NumberNuffy]

@CeltsGlobeMedia Just posted it :)

[Number Nuffy @NumberNuffy]

All bets released on discord for today!

[Number Nuffy @NumberNuffy]

2 Units

AFL
Blues vs Cats
Total Points
Over 177.5
@ $1.91
Bet365

Analysis Below:
Okay so it’s a match market so tail with caution with my recent luck, but I’ll put through what I’m thinking with this. 8 of cats 10 games this season have gone over this line, cats averaging more than 100 points this season, while conceding an average of 83. Carlton also conceding an average of 94. 2 of there last 3 have gone over this line. I’m sure if Geelong take the drivers seat with the pace of this game, the blues will go with them as much as they can.

[Number Nuffy @NumberNuffy]

2.25 Units

AFL
Blues vs Cats
SGM
@ $1.72
TAB

[Number Nuffy @NumberNuffy]

2 Units

AFL
Blues vs Cats
SGM
@ $1.90
TAB

[Number Nuffy @NumberNuffy]

2 Units

AFL
Blues vs Cats
Tom Atkins
Under 18.5 Disposals
@ $1.87
PointsBet

Analysis Below:
Calrlton are allowing the 3rd least +/- average to inside mids in their last 3 games. With the likes of Matt Kennedy and Willem Drew hitting 17 and 11 respectively, who are very similar to an Atkins role. Adding on the fact Carlton are allowing the least contested possessions in the last 3 games, which makes up 54% of Atkins disposals, a very high share usually for a player. Happy to play Atkins unders here.