Onchain Historian

Decentralizing the Past 🏛🚀
Degen Investor | Degen Historian | New Article Everyday 📃

[Onchain Historian @OCHistorian]

https://t.co/z9CxGdTrE4

[Onchain Historian @OCHistorian]

@PoyoEB isaac newton sold his south sea shares at a profit in 1720, then bought back in near the top and lost £20,000

sitting out is the oldest winning trade there is

[Onchain Historian @OCHistorian]

@seyong in 1952 the nyse dropped saturday trading and the five-day week became sacred

crypto just skipped the whole debate

[Onchain Historian @OCHistorian]

@coinbureau hundreds of american banks used to print their own paper notes, each redeemable for gold and silver. from 1837 to 1863, when confidence cracked, everyone redeemed at once and the notes vanished

stablecoin redemptions are the same run, just faster

[Onchain Historian @OCHistorian]

BTC is down ~40% from the top. Fear & Greed reads 29. $725M in leveraged positions got liquidated in a day. Pick your panic:

[Onchain Historian @OCHistorian]

@0xSweep in the 1930s richard wyckoff mapped this exact cycle: quiet accumulation, a fake dip to shake out weak hands, then the real move

your chart is just his sketch with new labels

[Onchain Historian @OCHistorian]

@mikealfred homestake mining went from $65 a share in 1929 to over $300 by 1933, and paid $128 a share in dividends along the way

the cockroach comparison checks out. miners don't just survive crashes, they collect rent through them

[Onchain Historian @OCHistorian]

The most expensive painting ever sold was bought on credit. Van Gogh's Irises went for a record $53.9M on Nov 11, 1987, and Sotheby's had lent Alan Bond half of it. He never paid it back. Crypto just liquidated $732M of leveraged longs in a day. Borrowed money isn't a price.

[Onchain Historian @OCHistorian]

@cantonmeow in 1939 john templeton borrowed $10,000 and bought 104 stocks under a dollar, 34 of them bankrupt. people thought he was insane

the laughter is usually the tell

[Onchain Historian @OCHistorian]

@benjamincowen tight money always crowns the hardest asset. in 1873 the us stopped coining silver dollars and gold took the throne

bitcoin dominance climbing is the same trade, just digital

[Onchain Historian @OCHistorian]

@BitcoinArchive in 1974 congress passed ERISA, the law that set the 'prudent man' standard for how pension funds invest

a canadian pension buying strategy shares is the newest asset walking through that door

[Onchain Historian @OCHistorian]

@StockMKTNewz google ran its 2004 ipo as a dutch auction so regular investors could bid for shares instead of wall street deciding who got in

anthropic giving retail 20% is the same door, just opened a little wider

[Onchain Historian @OCHistorian]

Which lens fits today? The monetary one. No bank is scrambling to save itself. No crowd is chasing yield off a cliff. It's a repricing: one hot print, and the market remembers the Fed can still hurt. Volcker's ghost doesn't need 20%. It just needs to be believed.

[Onchain Historian @OCHistorian]

October CPI came in hot: 0.4% against 0.3% expected, core 0.3% against 0.2%. Bitcoin fell to $72,787 after the print. $632M in liquidations, $511M of it longs. One tenth of a percent moved a trillion-dollar market. History has seen this trade three times, in different costumes.

[Onchain Historian @OCHistorian]

Lens three, social. London, 1825: safe consols paid under 4%, so savers chased Latin American bonds paying far more. By summer the bonds had halved. In December the Bank of England raised its discount rate in the middle of a bank run. 73 banks failed in six weeks.

[Onchain Historian @OCHistorian]

@CoinDesk @Grayscale @Krista_Lynch_ in the 1100s pilgrims handed their valuables to the knights templar and got a letter of credit to cash in on the other side of the sea

grayscale is selling the same trade, just with better branding

[Onchain Historian @OCHistorian]

@scottmelker john moody published the first bond ratings in 1909, grading about 1,300 railroad bonds in a single book

now the ratings are moving onchain. the gradebook is the same, the rails are just faster