OddStats

Retired finance professional. I can't see the future and neither can you; anyone who says different has something to sell. NOTHING I SAY IS INVESTMENT ADVICE.

[OddStats @OddStats]

https://t.co/irRkLUyTQv

I have genuinely terrible news. I have finally gotten big enough that X is allowing me to have paid subscribers. So if you've enjoyed any of my work and felt like setting $1 a month on fucking fire, know that you'll get amazing perks like:
1) literally the same content I post already for free
2) barely a thank you, if that
3) I promise to think about you every once in a while
4) the knowledge that you helped support an already retired millionaire

BUT ODDSTATS, WHY IS IT ONLY $1 MONTH?

Because I didn't realize that when I put this in as a joke, X would take me seriously and approve it.

IS THIS REAL?

We'll all find out together. Go ahead, stick it in and see.

SERIOUSLY, WHAT DO I GET?

Seriously, the satisfaction of knowing you have $1 fewer per month.

CAN I DM YOU IF I SUBSCRIBE?

Sure can. I mean, you can now for free too, but...

DOESN'T THIS MAKE THINGS WEIRD?

I guess. Look, if it makes you uncomfortable then it makes me uncomfortable and we can just skip to the cuddling.

UH LEMME JUST GO ASK MY WIFE

Absolutely, I'll just wait here on your porch, loudly banging on this pot I take around with me, until you two decide.

[OddStats @OddStats]

@cmt_anthony Yep.

[OddStats @OddStats]

EVERY -2.5% FRIDAY ON SPX
WHERE VIX CLOSED UNDER 25
AND HOW MONDAY FARED

I know this is against the rules, but I felt you should see this.

For my non-math people, that's 100% green.

[OddStats @OddStats]

Mondays after terrible Fridays for the NASDAQ

[OddStats @OddStats]

This is now
● The 4th time in 10 years
● Bitcoin was down 50% from ATHs
● For the first time in at least 6 months

In ALL THREE prior events
● Within 28 trading days
● Your crypto brother in law
● Was insufferable again

[OddStats @OddStats]

@smallcapstrader Oh man, I'm just fuckin' around, we're all good.

I appreciate the banter honestly.

[OddStats @OddStats]

@ThinFloat It really isn't.

You're just reading it with the wrong cadence.

[OddStats @OddStats]

This was only the
• 3rd time this millennium
• SPX ended a streak of 150+ trading days
• Without a -2.5% day
• On a Friday

The other two times
Monday was down -1.8% (2016) and -3.9% (2015)

[n=2 for my non math people]

[OddStats @OddStats]

@LifeLessonsAcad The only thing I've ever seen an n=2 of that I trusted going forward was sticking my hand in the wolverine exhibit at the zoo.

Twice was enough, thanks.

No, I wouldn't base anything off n=2 in the stock market.

[OddStats @OddStats]

@Syed_Sabtain No no, that's awesome, man, congratulations on what I assume must have been generational life changing wins.

[OddStats @OddStats]

As always, my ability to see through time stops at the exact moment we're in unfortunately.

That being said, pretty much everything I've run this weekend does seem to point to more volatility in the very short term than we'd experienced in the recent past. But that probably has more to do with the near total lack of volatility until the last couple days.

THAT being said, don't put a DIME down on anything I post.

[OddStats @OddStats]

@JN34888362 Ok, now what?

[OddStats @OddStats]

@smallcapstrader At no point did I suggest that America was a country and not a continent; you made that assumption.

And Hawaii is not, geographically or tectonically, on America.

I do agree with your chronology of American markets in Asia, so to you I award a point.

[OddStats @OddStats]

@ContraInvest @smallcapstrader I know, absolute negligence on my part.

I promise to do better.

[OddStats @OddStats]

@Syed_Sabtain 100% expected? You must be incredibly wealthy, no?

[OddStats @OddStats]

@ThinFloat There were 150+ trading days in a row in which there were zero days with a daily return of -2.5% or worse.

[OddStats @OddStats]

@smallcapstrader Relatively speaking, you're certainly right.

But say I'm in Asia and I trade American markets, sometimes Mondays are TUESDAYS.

It's all very confusing.

[OddStats @OddStats]

@brucedhendrix @jedimarkus77 @triad_trades Don't worry, I'm looking at some other data to torture the fuck out of right now.

[OddStats @OddStats]

Just a quick point on contention here: I pander to the smartest people on X, but I'm cursed with having to suffer 99% of the dumbest.

If I could just have the 500 smartest of my followers get a chuckle or a "huh!" out of my posts, the rest of the folks could all disappear into another dimension and that would be just fine with me.

(I know your comment wasn't aimed at me)

[OddStats @OddStats]

Oh, that's the only lens most people view my posts through.

Long or short, my chart/graph OBVIOUSLY means "sleep tight tonight, sweetheart, you're about to be rich enough to get out of this two bit town."

But, it turns out, those people read every single tweet on this app that way.

[OddStats @OddStats]

It really is amazing.

Some percentage of any population will look at obviously small sample size pop candy stats like mine and, instead of just going "huh, that's cool" will just divine whatever confirmation of their bias they want.

I could post a graph showing 25 of 25 historical dates in one direction the next day, and I'll get 100 people shocked by the trend, 100 people who assume the opposite will happen, and 100 people who will ask me a stupid fucking question answered on the chart.

In all honesty, I'm glad you said something. People are taking some of this stuff a wee bit too seriously. Feel free to quote me on that.

[OddStats @OddStats]

@Riaz64022107 I'm not sure I'd make actual financial decisions on anything I post, ever, but it's hard to not look at this and come to a similar conclusion.

I guess I'd rather someone saw my shitty work and took pause rather than seeing it and jumping into a stupid bet.

[OddStats @OddStats]

Lord Pretty Flacko here wanted to know
-Max drawdowns
-On Mondays
-Following those terrible NASDAQ Fridays

So I added the column in the middle.

Oof.

[lord pretty flacko ⚔️ @smdcapital]

@OddStats hey question - can u run the stats for the max drawdown? to see the difference against the closing price for each row?