Paddy O'Leary

Father, Husband, Son and Brother.

[Rose Celine Investments 🌹 @realroseceline]

My thoughts on $BRK

People overcomplicate $BRK because they try to value every piece perfectly down to the decimal. They debate price to book, intrinsic value formulas, and build giant spreadsheets modeling every subsidiary. Meanwhile I look at it much more simply. $BRK has roughly $400b in cash and around $300b in stocks.

That’s about $700b right there between cash and equities alone. So when the company is worth around $1t, you’re basically paying roughly $300b for everything else. That includes the railroad, the energy business, insurance operations, manufacturing, distribution, service businesses, and one of the greatest collections of operating assets ever assembled.

And honestly I think people massively underestimate the value of the insurance float. The float is one of the greatest financial assets ever created because $BRK gets access to enormous amounts of capital at extremely attractive economics. Most people do not fully understand how powerful that becomes over decades. That float has quietly fueled one of the greatest compounding machines in financial history.

But the part that fascinates me most is the discipline. Almost every CEO on earth would have cracked by now sitting on $400b of cash. Most management teams would feel pressure to force acquisitions just to appear active. $BRK has basically said if we cannot find something intelligent to buy at scale, we are willing to wait.

People look at the cash and think it’s dead money, but optionality matters. $BRK effectively owns a giant call option on future chaos. When markets panic and liquidity disappears, $BRK becomes one of the only entities on earth capable of writing enormous checks instantly without relying on financing markets. That is a huge strategic advantage.

The other thing people miss is how rare true permanence is in capitalism. Most corporations optimize for optics. CEOs rotate, incentives change, cultures decay, and strategies constantly shift depending on sentiment. $BRK was built differently.

It was designed almost like an anti Wall Street structure where long term thinking itself became the competitive advantage. In many ways that culture may end up being Buffett’s greatest creation, even bigger than the stock portfolio itself. A lot of companies talk about long term thinking. $BRK actually structured the organization around it.

I also think people misunderstand what $BRK really is. They think it’s just “an insurance company that owns stocks.” But $BRK is basically a giant ecosystem of real world economic activity. Railroads, energy infrastructure, manufacturing, freight movement, insurance, distribution, consumer spending, and financial assets all under one umbrella.

In many ways it’s almost like owning a miniature version of the American economy. But unlike an index fund, the capital allocation is centralized under highly disciplined operators. You get diversification without complete chaos along with durability, liquidity, tax efficiency, reinvestment flexibility, and world class balance sheet.

And honestly the most underrated asset may simply be trust. If $BRK calls during a crisis, people pick up the phone. If $BRK wants to buy a family owned business, sellers trust the company will preserve the culture and operate responsibly.

I also think people are underestimating Greg Abel. Nobody is Warren Buffett and nobody ever will be, but that doesn’t mean $BRK suddenly stops being $BRK. Greg already understands the culture, operational discipline, and capital allocation philosophy better than almost anyone alive.

That’s why $BRK almost a forever asset or a savings account on steroids. No, it’s not going to triple overnight and no, it’s not some hyper growth AI stock. But when I look at over $700b between cash and equities, elite operating businesses, insurance float, fortress balance sheet strength, world class reputation, and disciplined reinvestment talent, I have a hard time viewing it as expensive.

🌹

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

This is remarkable:

The global stock market cap to global GDP ratio is now at 117%, the second-highest in history.

This ratio has increased by 27% over the last 5 years and sits only below 2022 levels.

Since2008, global market cap has risen twice as fast as as global GDP.

To put this into perspective, at the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble peak, this percentage was at 110%.

Meanwhile, the US stock market cap to GDP ratio has reached a massive 201%, just 4 percentage points away from an all-time high.

Valuations are rising far faster than economic growth.

[Lou Stagner (Golf Stat Pro) @LouStagner]

Immediate DQ.

There is no place for this.

[Paddy O'Leary @OLearyPaddy]

@NevilleSouthall Top man Nev 💪

[TheJournal.ie @thejournal_ie]

Deliveroo dirver Caio Benicio was on his motorbike this afternoon when he saw a man with a knife attacking a young girl in Parnell Square.
The 43-year-old Brazilian dismounted his bike, took off his helmet, and hit the attacker with it.
Read more here:
https://t.co/L7CRfb61pJ

[Katriona O'Sullivan @katrionaos]

Do you know annoys me the most about the @tusla story. People are only listening now because a retired judge is saying things. Families like mine, & many others, have been saying the care system is broken for years...no-one cares about our voices though. (1)

[Fabio | Money ain't wealth @fmarciano]

Awake for hours.

My family, sound asleep.

The ocean waves are crashing.

I am so blessed & grateful for my life.

Here are some lessons that might help you live your best life.

1. When someone says "just kidding" they're not.

2. A divorced, overweight billionaire is broke.🧵

[StripMallGuy @realEstateTrent]

100 Retweets and @BobKnakal and I are doing a FREE Real Estate Twitter event in New York City!!

[Sean @SeanODowd15]

@realEstateTrent Life is an adult version of the marshmallow test

[Ewan MacKenna @EwanMacKenna]

The schooling of Ireland's self-proclaimed socialist leaders.

Mary Lou McDonald - €4,300pa.
Eoin Ó Broin - €7,300pa.
Richard Boyd Barrett - €6,100pa.
Paul Murphy - €5,900pa.
Ivana Bacik - €7,900pa.

[Joe Brolly @JoeBrolly1993]

Breaking: Irish government to apologise to Britain for the Famine. The Taoiseach is set to say, “On mature reflection, it was a grave injustice to blame Britain for our one million dead & the two million who escaped on famine ships. The truth is we simply did not eat enough.”

[Dylan LeClair @DylanLeClair]

Eurozone trade balance.

Largest deficit in recorded history.

[One Bubble to Rule Them All @shortl2021]

1/21. Key component of bubble economy Britain has been the housing market. A super easy BoE monetary policy, with the base rate falling to 0.1%, has stoked a house price spiral. New report out 15 Oct from Resolution Foundation reinforces my recent tweets that the party is over.

[Kieran Crowley @KieranCrowley1]

Little things like this make the difference 🤌

Ahead of training this morning, Stephen spotted a team on the pitch and invited them to watch the session and get a few photos

Always finds the time 🇮🇪

[Mitchell Baldridge @baldridgecpa]

TIL Donald Rumsfeld included a letter each year with his tax returns disclaiming,

“I have absolutely no idea whether our tax returns and our tax payments are accurate.”

[Paddy O'Leary @OLearyPaddy]

@AerLingus crazy que to drop luggage and flight delays in Rome, you can do much much better !

[Dr. Parik Patel, BA, CFA, ACCA Esq. @ParikPatelCFA]

JPEGs of rocks are selling for millions of dollars

Dog themed cryptocurrencies are worth billions

The President of El Salvador is day trading bitcoin on Robinhood

And you’re telling me there were no signs of a bubble??

[Vlad Yatsenko ☮️ to 🇺🇦, 🖕to 🇷🇺 @vyatsenko]

What an incredible support @RevolutApp customers gave to a worthy charity @RTELateLateShow! Granted, there were some challenges at the peek of the live campaign. So, I've personally donated €100K, and will also match any further donations this weekend via @RevolutApp up to €1M.

[Garrett Peers @garrett_peers]

Money’s biggest intrinsic value is its ability to give you control over your time ⏳

[Kyla Scanlon @kylascan]

McSupplyChain 🍔😤