OSINT-Eye

OSINT and GEOINT focused on Eastern European, Russian and African Security. Other topics on occasion.

All views my own. Retweet does not = endorsement.

[OSINT-Eye @OSINT_Eye_]

As everyone is focusing on #Ukraine even more today I just wanted to share something and remind everyone that for some of us, this "story" is personal. We care about this place and have friends there. It is not an abstraction or some far away place on a map. It is very very real.

[John Scott-Railton @jsrailton]

NEW: CENTCOM CONFIRMS: adversaries are buying commercial location data to target US troops.

Pentagon acknowledges it's not a one-off threat.

We got here thanks to big companies:
Who forced advertising everywhere. And it became a surveillance & weapons targeting system.

When you use apps they often harvest detailed data from your phone.

That data gets piped to an ecosystem of data brokers... who then sell the movements of millions to anybody with a credit card.

Customers include: shady players, criminals & military adversaries.

The data is incredibly detailed and can be used to track US military & intelligence activity (and that of every other government) and direct attacks.

Americans = extra vulnerable

Thanks to a lot of lobbying, the US has no comprehensive privacy law. For all of GDPR's flaws, Americans are far less protected from the data broker ecosystem.

...which is now leaving everybody exposed. Troops included.

Pentagon Policy? Yikes

Right now troops aren't prohibited from using their personal phones (which for reasons explained above are like giant, identifying beacons).

And until recently government devices could have ad tracking functionality enabled. Another massive own-goal.

Finally it seems like policy is being implemented to disable trackign on gov devices, but the gaps are enormous.

Some Action?

Now, a bipartisan group of Senators led by @RonWyden has called on the Pentagon to stop the flow of location data & stop using browsers built around collecting advertising data (they specifically call out Chrome).

And some other eminently sensible measures.

Good but also: experts have been collectively warning about this for almost a decade. What are we doing?

Story by @razhael
https://t.co/dY5m9lBZPs

[Christian Keil @pronounced_kyle]

This is wild... Russia seems to be threatening a *commercial* satellite that provides imaging services to Ukraine:

▸ starting about two weeks ago, Russia started maneuvering five (!) of their classified satellites to the same orbital inclination as the ICEYE satellite

▸ these burns were big, on the order of 100 m/s, clearly using chemical propulsion given the speed of the burns — very expensive and deliberate maneuvers

▸ as of last Friday, all five Russian satellites are now co-planar, at ~97.8° inclination, with three of ICEYE's satellites, and aligned in other orbital elements (e.g. RAAN) that make it clear they're specifically targeting this set

▸ I am a little skeptical that Russia is specifically targeting -X36 — there are two other satellites at the same inclination/RAAN (-X37 and -X38) — but the Russian sats are now all within striking distance of -X36, which is why people are concerned about it specifically; the closest cross-track distance is an estimated 500 meters (!!), all while the satellites are orbit 550 kilometers above Earth

▸ Russia has unleashed a cyberattack on a commercial satellite before (Viasat), and it is official Russian policy that commercially-owned infrastructure that aids in military efforts "may be legitimate target[s] for a retaliatory strike.”

▸ there's speculation that this could be a precursor to an RPO mission (meaning: physically grabbing the satellite or some other kind of non-kinetic attack like blinding/jamming)

Worth tracking closely. And unfortunately more evidence that space is militarizing, fast.

[Marc Polymeropoulos @Mpolymer]

Mediate? Not the right response. We should arm Ukraine to the teeth. Offensive and defensive weapons. Are we not on the right side of good vs evil? There should not be any neutrality on our side. Russia is our enemy. Ukraine is our ally. End of story. (And Marco knows…)

[Clément Molin @clement_molin]

With more and more drone strikes reaching the key Rostov-Crimea highway, Ukraine 🇺🇦 redefines the depth of the "kill zone".

🔹The first echelon extends to approximately 20 km (this is the case on both sides of the front). It primarily consists of FPV drone strikes, which generally operate at a depth of 5 to 15 km, although some drones with wings fly further. This is the basic kill zone; anything that moves is quickly targeted, movement is severely restricted, and losses are high.

🔹The second echelon is very recent, extending to 50 km or more, with enhanced conventional FPV strikes, notably via Starlink or sometimes with added wings, increasing their range. This is particularly the case around Donetsk. In this instance, the targets are logistics, deployment points, and key roads leading to the front. Losses are also significant, especially in terms of vehicles, which are often unarmored.

🔹The third echelon is twofold: on the one hand, there are tactical strikes against high-value targets carried out primarily by FP-2 drones (rear bases, training centers, ammunition depots, repair facilities, air defenses, radar installations, etc.), and now also by roving munitions that fly over key routes and target Russian logistics, particularly military equipment and fuel trucks.

🔹The fourth echelon extends even further, towards Crimea and Russia. This echelon mainly involves the FP-1 drone, but also frequently the FP-2 and other long-range drones. Targets include the foundations of the Russian economy (refineries, ports, industries), the Russian army in Crimea, fuel depots, and command centers.

🔹An additional echelon is made possible by the launch of conventional FPV drones from the decks of naval drones (USVs) and sometimes aerial drones, enabling FPV strikes far from the front lines.

My map with a basic understanding of the different echelons ⬇️

[Tom Nichols @RadioFreeTom]

I wish Gabbard's husband a full recovery. But I'm glad she's leaving; as I've written, she should never have been in the job in the first place. (Her eventual replacement could be worse, but one thing at a time.)

https://t.co/mJRJeXUPWO

and

https://t.co/mJRJeXUPWO

[Ben Hodges @general_ben]

First step to liberating Crimea is to isolate it by cutting this road and the Kerch Bridge. Next step is to make it untenable and unusable for Russian forces.

[Preston Stewart @prestonstew_]

The Congressional Research Service just listed the 42 US aircraft lost or damaged so far during the war with Iran.
4 x F-15E Strike Eagles destroyed
1 x F-35A damaged by Iranian ground fire
1 x A-10 destroyed
7 x KC-135 Stratotankers (2 destroyed, 5 damaged)
1 x E-3 Sentry AWACS damaged
2 x MC-130J destroyed
1 x HH-60W helicopter damaged by small arms fire
24 x MQ-9 Reapers destroyed
1 x MQ-4C Triton destroyed

[Senator Thom Tillis @SenThomTillis]

The careless decision to reduce our force posture in Europe, along with moves by Pete Hegseth and his political henchmen to force out some of our finest general officers is amateur hour at best and deadly at worst.

Hegseth continues to surprise and disrespect our greatest allies and some of our best military professionals with impulsive decisions not grounded in reality or good judgment. If the rumors are true that Hegseth is trying to sideline General Chris Donahue, one of our nation’s finest warfighters, by downgrading U.S. Army Europe-Africa to a 3-star command, he is taking another step down a dangerous path. A step that is not in the best interests of our nation or our servicemembers.

General Donahue has dedicated his entire career to upholding the high standards and warrior ethos that Hegseth claims he is restoring to our ranks. Gen. Donahue has led Soldiers at all levels in Airborne (including Ft. Bragg’s 82nd) and Mechanized units, the 75th Ranger Regiment, and our most prestigious special operation units. He deployed over 20 times in support of Iraqi Freedom, Enduring Freedom, New Dawn, Inherent Resolve, Atlantic Resolve, Freedom’s Sentinel, European Assure, Deter and Reinforce, and in support of the Sudan crisis.

Hegseth would do well to surround himself with more patriots like General Donahue and to get his henchmen, who are not qualified to carry Donahue's bag, out of the Pentagon. Keep your word, Mr. Secretary: choose meritocracy over your mediocre yes-men.

https://t.co/adZY30rCZq

[Haley Britzky @halbritz]

Rep. Don Bacon says he received a call from Poland yesterday about the cancellation of a US armored brigade to the country, and that they were "blindsided":

"They called me yesterday, they did not know, they were blindsided," he told Army leadership during a HASC hearing. "These are some of our best allies and they had no idea. They still don't know what the plan is."

Background:
https://t.co/LzKewuRYMQ

[U.S. Embassy Kyiv @USEmbassyKyiv]

Today, I joined fellow members of the diplomatic corps at the site of a nine-story residential building struck during Russia’s May 14 overnight attack – one of the deadliest attacks on Kyiv since the start of the full-scale invasion.

As Ukraine marks a Day of Mourning, we extend our deepest condolences to all affected by this senseless tragedy.

Ambassador Davis

[Saint Javelin @saintjavelin]

For those unfamiliar with the “Ryazan sugar”:

Back in 1999, during the wave of residential building bombings in Russia, residents in Ryazan spotted suspicious men carrying sacks into the basement of their apartment block. Police tested the substance and reportedly identified it as hexogen, it was an actual explosive.

The building was evacuated. A terrorist attack was expected.

[Yaroslav Trofimov @yarotrof]

President Zelensky’s former chief of staff and de-facto national security advisor Andriy Yermak has been jailed, with a $3.2 million bail set by the independent anti-corruption court this morning. Not many countries have the truly independent judiciary and anti-corruption prosecutors that exist in Ukraine. The United States doesn’t.

[Michael Weiss @michaeldweiss]

At the request of the U.S., Ukraine set up its Sky Map air defense system at Prince Sultan Air Base following the Iranian drone attack a U.S. base in Kuwait, which killed six American servicemen, and after another attack destroyed an E-3 Sentry aircraft in Saudi Arabia. Ukraine's TTPs helped the U.S. shoot down Shaheds ($20,000-50,000) without expending expensive munitions such as the Patriot interceptor ($6-$10 million).

[Michael Weiss @michaeldweiss]

"During his visit, Mr. Ratcliffe’s most concrete demand was for Cuba to close the intelligence listening posts that Russia and China operate there, and that Mr. Trump has singled out."

It should also be to get the Fidel people to give up what they were allowing the Russians to do to CIA officers in Havana in 2016-17. https://t.co/dxvfTWCE1X

[Natasha Bertrand @NatashaBertrand]

Exclusive: Earlier this spring, a mysterious explosion blew up a car carrying an alleged cartel operative in broad daylight, on one of Mexico’s busiest highways, just outside of its capital city.

It was a targeted assassination facilitated by CIA ops officers on the ground.

Since last year, CIA operatives inside Mexico have directly participated in deadly attacks on several, mostly mid-level cartel members—a lethal campaign that's gone largely unnoticed.

Me with @ZcohenCNN @evanperez and Mauricio Torres:

https://t.co/tRd27b5JJE

[Jim Sciutto @jimsciutto]

The sharp reversal in who is helping whom is one of the most remarkable stories of the Ukraine war:

[OSINT-Eye @OSINT_Eye_]

This is not the first reporting of this story, but it is a good update.

[Christopher Miller @ChristopherJM]

"A Russian cargo ship likely carrying two nuclear reactors for submarines, possibly destined for North Korea, suffered a series of explosions and sank in unexplained circumstances, about 60 miles off the coast of Spain, a CNN investigation has found."

[Michael Weiss @michaeldweiss]

Zelensky isn’t begging or scraping anymore. And I think I know why.

[Roy🇨🇦 @GrandpaRoy2]

The Russians have developed a new radio reconnaissance system called the “Meshtastic-Sniffer” for detecting and analyzing Ukrainian Meshtastic/LoRa mesh networks.
Using multiple synchronized receivers, it can geolocate transmitting nodes via TDOA (Time Difference of Arrival).
1/

[Christopher Miller @ChristopherJM]

Breaking: Andriy Yermak, powerful ex-chief of staff of President Zelenskyy, has officially been charged by Ukraine's National Anti-Corruption Bureau in a deepening corruption probe, sources confirm to @FT.

Background: https://t.co/6oBtd1YRoU