The main thing driving all of this confidence: rising intra-EM trade. As incomes grow and urbanization accelerates across the developing world, local consumption is becoming a bigger growth engine on its own.
The number to watch: as Dangote moves to double capacity to 1.4 million b/d by 2028, Bird says Middle Eastern grades could eventually make up 30% of each processing train, a paradigm shift in how much Gulf crude flows into Africa's largest refinery.
To counter a slump in natural diamonds sales, Botswana is moving to acquire a majority stake in De Beers alongside UAE and Omani wealth funds.
If successful, it shifts the entire natural diamond industry from defensive marketing to hard supply control. ๐ง๐ผ๐
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It's a reminder that a regional conflict in the Gulf doesn't stay contained to the region. Helium supply chains are globally interconnected, and a disruption there can quietly show up in the price of a laptop or tablet thousands of miles away.