Oasive (YC F26)

Research analyst for bond investors. Munis, Agency MBS, Macro & Rates.

[Oasive (YC F26) @OasiveAI]

Oasive for municipal bonds!

[Anaïs Howland, CFA @AnaisHowland18]

Today I'm launching @OasiveAI for municipal bonds, backed by @ycombinator!

Figuring out if a city or hospital can pay back its bonds means digging through PDFs, board meeting videos and local news.

Oasive for Munis puts it on one page per borrower:
→ Credit-relevant news with rating changes and distress flagged
→ Board meetings and hearings, summarized and linked to the recording
→ Financials and sector metrics, every number sourced
→ Each bond's security structure
→ Ask Oasive anything, get a sourced answer in seconds

Next we're planning an MCP server and API for sub-sector data. What would you want in it?

Early access: DM me or https://t.co/Kr2fpvJWek

[Anaïs Howland, CFA @AnaisHowland18]

My new favorite feature on our @OasiveAI muni platform: getting daily local news on my city & county. So hard to parse through the noise but with Oasive, it comes straight to my mailbox! 🙌

[Anaïs Howland, CFA @AnaisHowland18]

Heading to Napa for the California Society of Municipal Analysts (CSMA) Fall Conference today and tomorrow!

Looking forward to sessions on California's fiscal outlook, transit and housing, school enrollment declines and what AI means for municipalities. Plus the Municipal Analyst Scrum, which promises spirited debates and Napa wine 🍷

If you're there, come say hi!

[Anaïs Howland, CFA @AnaisHowland18]

I realize I never properly introduced myself so here it goes!

I'm Anaïs, I grew up in Paris 🇫🇷 and moved to the US 14 years ago for college at UC Berkeley (go Bears! 🐻)

I started out on Wall Street in the bond market, first as a quant analyst on Wells Fargo's $350B MBS portfolio, then managing $17B of MBS, ABS and CMBS at @Google Treasury. Along the way I got hooked on building tools to automate my own work.

That pulled me into product at @Google working on Search (AI Mode and AI Overviews) and the Gemini app. Then I left to start my first company building infra and evals for computer use agents. It wasn't the right fit so I shut it down and learned a ton.

Now I'm back to my first love: bonds 😅 I'm building @OasiveAI solo to help fund managers figure out which bonds to buy. In the current @ycombinator batch (a little over 3 weeks left!)

Outside of work, I'm a big runner (I used to run ultras) and I love backcountry and downhill skiing. I did a lot of CrossFit until shoulder surgery benched me earlier this year. I live in Menlo Park with my husband and our 2 dogs 🐶🐶

Say hi if you're into bonds, AI or a good trail run!

[Oasive (YC F26) @OasiveAI]

More corporate-backed munis!

[Anaïs Howland, CFA @AnaisHowland18]

Did you know there are muni bonds backed by Carnival and Royal Caribbean?

Long Beach issued a bond for Carnival's cruise terminal ($9.4M still outstanding). It's funded by a fee on Carnival's passengers and Carnival guarantees the debt service. In Bayonne NJ, Royal Caribbean has to cover any shortfall on its terminal bonds.

So you need to look at the cruise line credit and not just the city.

On @OasiveAI, the bond page shows the company behind it, with its 10-K financials one click away. See below! 👇

[Anaïs Howland, CFA @AnaisHowland18]

Did you know there are muni bonds backed by Carnival and Royal Caribbean?

Long Beach issued a bond for Carnival's cruise terminal ($9.4M still outstanding). It's funded by a fee on Carnival's passengers and Carnival guarantees the debt service. In Bayonne NJ, Royal Caribbean has to cover any shortfall on its terminal bonds.

So you need to look at the cruise line credit and not just the city.

On @OasiveAI, the bond page shows the company behind it, with its 10-K financials one click away. See below! 👇

[Anaïs Howland, CFA @AnaisHowland18]

After the hot CPI print and Waller's hawkish comments yesterday, the odds of a hike at the Dec 9 Fed meeting went up to 100% (up front 84% on Monday). The odds of a 50bp hike are now 8%.

The curve bear fattened on the move (2y +17bp, 2s10s -7bp) and equities slipped.

Check out @OasiveAI's rundown of the day!

[Anaïs Howland, CFA @AnaisHowland18]

Today's 10y auction got done, but the buyer mix changed.

$42B cleared at 5.02% with 2.46x cover below the 2.57x average of the prior 7 10y auctions.

Indirect bidders (foreign and real-money accounts) took 61%, their smallest share of any 10y auction since at least May 2024. On the other hand, direct bidders took 29%, the most in that same window.

A hot core CPI print this morning pushed the 10y above 5% and even at those yields foreign demand pulled back. That's a little worrying for the long end with $25B of 30y supply coming to market on Thursday.

You can use @OasiveAI to get a full breakdown!

[Oasive (YC F26) @OasiveAI]

Did you know corporates borrow through the muni market?

[Anaïs Howland, CFA @AnaisHowland18]

Did you know corporates borrow through the muni market? They do it through prepaid gas bonds.

A muni gas authority issues tax-exempt bonds to prepay a supplier for decades of gas or power. Local utilities buy it at a discount. Bondholders are paid from the deal so the real credit is the bank, insurer or company behind it: often a non-US bank and in 2026 even Alphabet!

On @OasiveAI:
→ Each prepay deal names the party its payments depend on
→ One click to that party's financials read from its own filings
→ Non-US credits in their own currency as filed and labelled

Reach out for access: https://t.co/Kr2fpvKu3S and see demo below 👇

[Anaïs Howland, CFA @AnaisHowland18]

Did you know corporates borrow through the muni market? They do it through prepaid gas bonds.

A muni gas authority issues tax-exempt bonds to prepay a supplier for decades of gas or power. Local utilities buy it at a discount. Bondholders are paid from the deal so the real credit is the bank, insurer or company behind it: often a non-US bank and in 2026 even Alphabet!

On @OasiveAI:
→ Each prepay deal names the party its payments depend on
→ One click to that party's financials read from its own filings
→ Non-US credits in their own currency as filed and labelled

Reach out for access: https://t.co/Kr2fpvKu3S and see demo below 👇

[Anaïs Howland, CFA @AnaisHowland18]

Core CPI ran hot for a 3rd straight month and the 10y broke 5%

> Core: +0.3% m/m vs 0.2% expected
> Headline: +0.35% vs 0.3%, still leaning on energy (+0.70%) and food (+0.47%)
> Shelter cooled to +0.30%, what's still accelerating is services outside shelter
> By midday the 2y was up 19bp and the 10y was above 5%

Waller also floated a 50bp hike for December before the print which stirred up markets.

Our CPI Update at @OasiveAI is out. DM me for a copy!

[Anaïs Howland, CFA @AnaisHowland18]

October CPI drops tomorrow morning. @OasiveAI just broke down what to expect and what to watch out for:

> Headline: consensus +0.2% to +0.3% m/m, down from +0.65% in September as gas prices softened
> Core: consensus +0.2% after +0.29% in August and +0.33% in September

If core > 0.3% m/m, this would be hawkish for the Fed and push odds of a december hike even higher (sitting at 77% today)

[Oasive (YC F26) @OasiveAI]

Muni news!

[Anaïs Howland, CFA @AnaisHowland18]

On @OasiveAI, you can find every local story on the muni borrowers you cover, in one place. See it in action below!

→ News on hospitals, states and cities, tagged by what it means for credit (labor, closures, budgets, litigation, leadership changes, etc.)
→ Paste your borrowers and get a watch list in one step, with one feed for all your names
→ A daily email with what's new on each list

News on small issuers is the easiest to miss! Not anymore, reach out for access in DM or at https://t.co/Kr2fpvKu3S

[Anaïs Howland, CFA @AnaisHowland18]

On @OasiveAI, you can find every local story on the muni borrowers you cover, in one place. See it in action below!

→ News on hospitals, states and cities, tagged by what it means for credit (labor, closures, budgets, litigation, leadership changes, etc.)
→ Paste your borrowers and get a watch list in one step, with one feed for all your names
→ A daily email with what's new on each list

News on small issuers is the easiest to miss! Not anymore, reach out for access in DM or at https://t.co/Kr2fpvKu3S

[Anaïs Howland, CFA @AnaisHowland18]

A month ago stocks and bonds were moving together and now bonds are a good hedge for stocks again
> 60d stock-bond correlation -0.06, down from +0.36 in early October and below the 1y avg of +0.24
> Thursday the S&P fell 4.4% while the 2Y rallied 12bp
> What moved too much (per @OasiveAI's model): WTI fell 12.2% when its usual betas implied a 1.5% gain (-2.2σ). HY spreads tightened 2bp when stocks implied about 15bp of widening (-1.8σ)

Our Weekly Review at @OasiveAI is out. DM me for a copy!

[Oasive (YC F26) @OasiveAI]

We got the local news dialed in! 🔥

[Anaïs Howland, CFA @AnaisHowland18]

A followup to this: I've been using @OasiveAI's local news to keep up with Menlo Park (where I live) especially the local results after the midterms. It's so hard to keep track of what's happening locally!

Turns out the same feed muni analysts use works for residents too!

[Anaïs Howland, CFA @AnaisHowland18]

A followup to this: I've been using @OasiveAI's local news to keep up with Menlo Park (where I live) especially the local results after the midterms. It's so hard to keep track of what's happening locally!

Turns out the same feed muni analysts use works for residents too!

[Anaïs Howland, CFA @AnaisHowland18]

One of our muni users was blown away by how comprehensive and relevant the news feed in @OasiveAI for munis is.

Getting the right news on time is surprisingly hard in munis. It matters most for smaller issuers like towns, counties and charter schools, whose news never shows up on the platforms analysts use. And no, Bloomberg doesn't cover it well!

We only surface credit-relevant news. Take an airport: there's a ton of news about it but very little of it touches the underlying credit but we filter out the noise to show users only what matters for credit risk.

Hearing this from users is the best part! Nothing like this exists on the market today. Make something people want @ycombinator

[Anaïs Howland, CFA @AnaisHowland18]

Weekly preview from @OasiveAI: big week coming for rates and it all comes down to Tuesday
> Mon: $58B 3y auction
> Tue: October CPI and 10y auction ($42B)
> Wed: Veteran's day (bond market closed)
> Thu: 30y auction ($25B)
> Fri: October PPI

After Friday's jobs beat, a December hike is priced at about 76%. A core CPI print of 0.3% or more would confirm a hike is coming. However a softer print could pull the odds back.

With 3 auctions and a holiday (lower liquidity), any move could get amplified.

[Oasive (YC F26) @OasiveAI]

Check out our muni platform in action! 👇

[Anaïs Howland, CFA @AnaisHowland18]

Here's how @OasiveAI for Munis looks at muni hospital bonds using Stanford Healthcare as an example:
→ 5y of audited results up top showing revenue, operating margin and days of cash with each figure linked to its page in the audit
→ Who it serves and who it competes with: share of Medicare patients in its area along with comps (like Kaiser, Sutter and the county hospitals)
→ What backs the bonds: the pledge and lien with the page cited

@OasiveAI makes it very easy to see how each different structure differs and the underlying credit behind each issue!

[Anaïs Howland, CFA @AnaisHowland18]

Here's how @OasiveAI for Munis looks at muni hospital bonds using Stanford Healthcare as an example:
→ 5y of audited results up top showing revenue, operating margin and days of cash with each figure linked to its page in the audit
→ Who it serves and who it competes with: share of Medicare patients in its area along with comps (like Kaiser, Sutter and the county hospitals)
→ What backs the bonds: the pledge and lien with the page cited

@OasiveAI makes it very easy to see how each different structure differs and the underlying credit behind each issue!