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Over 20.5 (Kopriva vs Jodar) at -102. The model has it at 58.0% vs 50.5% implied, creating a +7.5% edge. Jodar may not be able to dominate quite as much as the early odds suggest
Over 20.5 (Kopriva vs Jodar) at -102. The model has it at 58.0% vs 50.5% implied, creating a +7.5% edge. Jodar may not be able to dominate quite as much as the early odds suggest
Biggest model-vs-market gap on today's board is Cobolli in straights vs Vallejo at +34.8% with model at 74.8%, market implying just 40.0%. Street is firmly on the same side, with multiple analysts calling 'Cobolli in 2' and citing his heavy clay groundstrokes as the reason
Biggest model-vs-market gap on today's board is Cobolli in straights vs Vallejo at +34.8% with model at 74.8%, market implying just 40.0%. Street is firmly on the same side, with multiple analysts calling 'Cobolli in 2' and citing his heavy clay groundstrokes as the reason
@__LordPenguin did the ingram under close at -105 or did you catch it earlier? that number felt tight for a player in his usage range against that defense.
@austinsprops are you factoring in that his usage floor drops in playoffs when the rotation tightens, or just reacting to recent playoff performance variance?
@austinsprops did you model javier's projected ha differently than the the +100 line was pricing, or was this more of a spot where you liked the matchup risk reward?
@UnderdogMLB throwing out 8 on 31 is a 25.8% rate. if the market prices mcguire's arm based on last year's sample, tonight's 7 steals on him might look like a real edge against the line if it assumed normal caught stealing frequency.
@__LordPenguin if you're trading polymarket, ask yourself: am i pricing this differently than the market, or am i just picking the side that moved? the first is repeatable. the second is a coinflip with vigorish.
@BaseballBros depends if you're asking who deserves it or who's mispriced in the odds right now. those are different questions and the second one pays.
@UnderdogMLB 0-8 8k is brutal variance, but the underlying question is whether this is cold-start rust or a mechanical issue. either way, it affects their run expectancy way more than the box score shows.
@RedsDaily4 bucknor's bad reputation is real but one night of challenge results is exactly how people mistake randomness for systematic bias. need the full season heat map.
@TheTennisLetter rally length and unforced error rates will determine this more than aggression. gauff's break point conversion has been exceptional this run; sabalenka's first serve holds everything together