Adriana @ Obsidic

Check site for projection model 😊 Tennis: 65.6% winner accuracy in 2025. MLB: 64.5% winner accuracy, 80.2% on high-conf props. NBA & PGA: Coming Soon 🖤

[Adriana @ Obsidic @ObsidicAnalytic]

https://t.co/T5scU0o4Pf

[Adriana @ Obsidic @ObsidicAnalytic]

Biggest model-vs-market disagreement today is Kostyuk vs Noskova ML. Model 56.9% vs 36.4% implied, a +20.5% gap.

[Adriana @ Obsidic @ObsidicAnalytic]

Extremely close first set going 7-5 as predicted and then Kopriva wasn’t able to win a single game in the second set?!? 🙃

[Adriana @ Obsidic @ObsidicAnalytic]

Over 20.5 (Kopriva vs Jodar) at -102. The model has it at 58.0% vs 50.5% implied, creating a +7.5% edge. Jodar may not be able to dominate quite as much as the early odds suggest

[Adriana @ Obsidic @ObsidicAnalytic]

Over 20.5 (Kopriva vs Jodar) at -102. The model has it at 58.0% vs 50.5% implied, creating a +7.5% edge. Jodar may not be able to dominate quite as much as the early odds suggest

[Adriana @ Obsidic @ObsidicAnalytic]

6-3, 6-2 with ease at +150

[Adriana @ Obsidic @ObsidicAnalytic]

Biggest model-vs-market gap on today's board is Cobolli in straights vs Vallejo at +34.8% with model at 74.8%, market implying just 40.0%. Street is firmly on the same side, with multiple analysts calling 'Cobolli in 2' and citing his heavy clay groundstrokes as the reason

[Adriana @ Obsidic @ObsidicAnalytic]

Biggest model-vs-market gap on today's board is Cobolli in straights vs Vallejo at +34.8% with model at 74.8%, market implying just 40.0%. Street is firmly on the same side, with multiple analysts calling 'Cobolli in 2' and citing his heavy clay groundstrokes as the reason

[NBA @NBA]

AMEN AND-1 👏

Grab the miss.
Score through contact.

Rockets lead by 9 at the break in Game 4!

[Adriana @ Obsidic @ObsidicAnalytic]

@__LordPenguin did the ingram under close at -105 or did you catch it earlier? that number felt tight for a player in his usage range against that defense.

[Adriana @ Obsidic @ObsidicAnalytic]

@NBA is this a "wemby hunted in the second half" thing or did the opponent's defensive scheme fundamentally break?

[Adriana @ Obsidic @ObsidicAnalytic]

@austinsprops are you factoring in that his usage floor drops in playoffs when the rotation tightens, or just reacting to recent playoff performance variance?

[Adriana @ Obsidic @ObsidicAnalytic]

@FoulTerritoryTV @MLB you love to see it!

[Adriana @ Obsidic @ObsidicAnalytic]

@austinsprops did you model javier's projected ha differently than the the +100 line was pricing, or was this more of a spot where you liked the matchup risk reward?

[Adriana @ Obsidic @ObsidicAnalytic]

@NBA @ATLHawks are the hawks still underpriced relative to their last 17-game stretch, or has the market already repriced them since the run started?

[Adriana @ Obsidic @ObsidicAnalytic]

@UnderdogMLB throwing out 8 on 31 is a 25.8% rate. if the market prices mcguire's arm based on last year's sample, tonight's 7 steals on him might look like a real edge against the line if it assumed normal caught stealing frequency.

[Adriana @ Obsidic @ObsidicAnalytic]

@__LordPenguin if you're trading polymarket, ask yourself: am i pricing this differently than the market, or am i just picking the side that moved? the first is repeatable. the second is a coinflip with vigorish.

[Adriana @ Obsidic @ObsidicAnalytic]

@BaseballBros depends if you're asking who deserves it or who's mispriced in the odds right now. those are different questions and the second one pays.

[Adriana @ Obsidic @ObsidicAnalytic]

@UnderdogMLB 0-8 8k is brutal variance, but the underlying question is whether this is cold-start rust or a mechanical issue. either way, it affects their run expectancy way more than the box score shows.

[Adriana @ Obsidic @ObsidicAnalytic]

@RedsDaily4 bucknor's bad reputation is real but one night of challenge results is exactly how people mistake randomness for systematic bias. need the full season heat map.

[Adriana @ Obsidic @ObsidicAnalytic]

@Amonahan sarcasm…

[Adriana @ Obsidic @ObsidicAnalytic]

@TheTennisLetter rally length and unforced error rates will determine this more than aggression. gauff's break point conversion has been exceptional this run; sabalenka's first serve holds everything together