OCTAGON VALUE
MMA betting focused on value, not hype.
69 picks
20 units
23% YIELD
Track record:
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Salkilld’s dominant win over Gamrot was impressive.
He’s incredibly complete and huge for 155 lbs.
I see genuine championship potential.
After this performance, I don’t see him as an underdog against anyone at 155.
🥊 UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs Salkild Recap
❌ Salkild & Over 1.5 (-1.00u)
❌ Del Valle by Submission or Decision (-1.00u)
❌ Lemos +3.5 & Over 1.5 (-1.00u)
✅ Ferreira & Over 1.5 (+1.65u)
✅ Pat Guilherme +3.5 (+1.30u)
Record: 2-3
Profit: -0.05u
Almost a break-even card.
Salkild vs Gamrot
I'm backing Salkild in the main.
Gamrot's clearest path to victory is controlling the wrestling. If he can't consistently secure and hold takedowns, I think he'll struggle.
Salkild has shown solid takedown defense, sharp striking and the power to hurt him.
Everyone seems to think this is an easy fight for Islam.
At Octagon Value, we disagree.
We make Ian Machado Garry the favorite.
The betting lines are heavily underrating Garry while overrating Islam. Makhachev has looked dominant, but almost all of that dominance came at 155.
Navajo Stirling vs Jan Blachowicz
This is a massive step up for Stirling
This is his biggest test to date, but I think he's the real deal and still improving. I expect a long, tactical fight where Stirling uses his movement and volume to edge the rounds.
Rodriguez vs Medić is a fascinating matchup.
This should be a pure striking battle.
My view:
If the fight ends in Round 1 or early Round 2, the Medić will win but if Rodriguez can overcome the second round he win obtein the victory.
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs Guskov Recap
✅ Ponzinibbio & Over 1.5 (+1.00u)
✅ Said (+1.30u)
✅ Walker by KO/TKO or Submission (+1.20u)
❌ Fortune +3.5 (-1.00u)
✅ Zaynukov & Over 1.5 (+0.83u)
✅ Aliev & Over 1.5 (+0.76u)
Record: 5-1
Profit: +4.09u 📈
Another profitable card!
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs Guskov
Walker is one of the best submission specialists in the heavyweight division, with elite grappling and dangerous heel hooks.
Petersen is a well-rounded fighter, but he'll be able to stop Walker from imposing his game.
Walker will finish.
Fight night Ankalaev vs Guskov
Fight: Zaynukov vs Rzepecki
Is Chango the real deal? 👀
We're about to find out against an undefeated Polish prospect making his UFC debut with serious finishing ability.
I still rate Zaynukov highly and expect him to get the win.
Usman vs Du Plessis recap
Solid night overall.
✅ Du Plessis & Over 2.5
✅ Duncan & Over 1.5
✅ Harris
❌ Ramirez +3.5
❌ Bashi & Over 1.5
Profit: +0.60u
On to the next one. 👊
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs Du Plessis
Fight: Usman vs Du Plessis
Selection: Du Plessis & Over 2.5 rounds
Odds: 1.90 (bet365)
Min. odds to enter: 1.90
Stake: 1
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Usman vs Du Plessis
I see Du Plessis getting the job done.
Age and the move up in weight will be key factors. Usman can stay competitive early and may even win the opening rounds through his wrestling.
But from Round 3 onwards, I expect DDP to take over and find the finish.
McGregor vs Holloway
I actually like this stylistic matchup for Conor.
The key is how he returns from the injury and how he approaches the fight. If he hunts the finish from the opening bell, I think he will lose.
The value is on Conor's victory.