Rodrigo Costa

Asset class agnostic

[Rodrigo Costa @OctavioCaula]

Betting against $MU isn’t complicated.
It’s just spotting every classic sign of a hype. Exactly like watching my teenage daughters get ready.
Same trendy brands. Same FOMO.
Markets are just high school with bigger numbers. 😂🤑

[Rodrigo Costa @OctavioCaula]

Investors have unlimited books, podcasts and several AIs at their fingertips but completely missed one of the most obvious short opportunities of the year on $MU?
It´s just proves nobody reads my tweets anyway. 😂

[Rodrigo Costa @OctavioCaula]

@femisapien_z @leomnonato Nãoooo. Precisamos atrair capital e mão de obra qualificada. Isto não se resolve com incentivo a maior natalidade. E sim com impostos mais baixos para a alta renda e com melhor educação.

[Rodrigo Costa @OctavioCaula]

In the past, the only goal for investors was to outperform the market.
Today, with social media, you can also monetize your follower count.
But here’s what’s still missing on X: an account dedicated to tracking CEOs and top executives’ personal lifestyles the cars they drive to work, the watches they wear, private jets, etc.
For me, this would be an incredibly valuable red-flag tool to avoid certain companies.

[Rodrigo Costa @OctavioCaula]

The biggest mistake investors make is believing they can find market mispricings all the time.
Markets aren’t perfectly efficient, but they’re not constantly inefficient either.
If you want to hunt for real mistakes prices, go where retail got excited. Sniff out greed and leverage. Or look where there’s panic and frustration.
#GLO #MU

[Rodrigo Costa @OctavioCaula]

Yesterday at the gym I was complaining to a friend, who’s half my age, about the stock market.
We both agreed, terrible breadth, extremely concentrated, looks like a classic bubble.
Until we realized we’re on completely opposite sides.
I’m adding shorts on $MU, $NVDA and $INTC.
He’s aggressively increasing his longs in $TSLA and $SPCX.
Is this just a generational thing?
Am I right because I’ve lived through this movie before or am I missing the real technological revolution and “this time is actually different”?

[Rodrigo Costa @OctavioCaula]

Impossible to say we’re near a market peak.
This is precisely when you meet the largest crowd of two kinds of investors: the ones who feel stupid and the ones who feel brilliant.
Right now? I’m definitely in the first group. 😂

[Rodrigo Costa @OctavioCaula]

SK Hynix, Micron’s biggest Korean rival is listing a massive $29B ADR on Nasdaq next month.
Today Micron’s news flow is 100% bullish and completely drowning out the bears.
What could possibly go wrong?

[Rodrigo Costa @OctavioCaula]

Markets peak when everyone is crowded on one side and buying power is exhausted. Retail is already all-in.
So what’s missing for the Tech sector, especially semiconductors to finally break?
With profits already at record highs, isn’t it about time for the market to pull the rug?

[Rodrigo Costa @OctavioCaula]

Shorting names right before earnings has been one of my best trades in 2026.
“Profits are awesome. They always are near peaks.” — Mike McGlone
Today’s $MU report after the bell should be another textbook example.

[Rodrigo Costa @OctavioCaula]

Eu assisti a carreira toda do Muller e ele foi incrível. Quando ficou mais velho passou a jogar só de primeira e parece até que melhorou. Era uma assistência atrás da outra. Não dá para comparar jogadores de posições diferentes e com décadas de distância mas concordo com a análise.

[Rodrigo Costa @OctavioCaula]

There’s no better way to multiply wealth than being exposed to hard assets but there’s also no faster way to melt decades of savings than holding them right before a severe recession.
Right now I’m only long uranium, gold, and silver. Nothing else.
More inclined to Mike McGlone’s view than Jeff Currie’s.

[Rodrigo Costa @OctavioCaula]

How is it possible that in 2026, with Claude-level AI at our fingertips, legendary oil analysts are looking at the same market and seeing totally different planets? Supply glut or supply crunch?

[Rodrigo Costa @OctavioCaula]

@JE_codder Financing is usually announced on Tuesdays or Wednesdays and as the company is already running out of money.....

[Rodrigo Costa @OctavioCaula]

If you cannot stomach another delay or potential dilution from Red Cloud´s new private financing in the downside scenario, consider exiting your $GLO shares on Monday, June 22. Expect possible news flow (positive DFC update or negative PP announcement) on the 22/23 June.

[Rodrigo Costa @OctavioCaula]

Betting that within the next 30 days we’ll see either DFC updates 🙏 or a surprise private financing for $GLO. Shareholders, you’ve been warned.

[Rodrigo Costa @OctavioCaula]

@AfricanLonghorn We are on the right track and will be very well rewarded but there may be more delays. This stock is not for the faint of heart, that's for sure.

[Rodrigo Costa @OctavioCaula]

Every time I think the stock market is irrational and expensive, I keep at least 50% in dry powder.
This cycle I broke my rule: kept my longs and went 50% short.
Now my shorts are ripping higher than my longs. Classic dysfunctional market with terrible breadth.
Usually happens right at the top… but it’s still frustrating as hell while it plays out.

[Rodrigo Costa @OctavioCaula]

Couldn't resist the divergence between $XOP and $USO today.
Time to get long oil again. Market participants are clearly uncomfortable going into the weekend exposed, and a Hormuz deal looks largely priced in.
Opened a meaningful long $XOP position. This divergence could be marking a bottom.

[Rodrigo Costa @OctavioCaula]

If this framework is even directionally correct, my plan is simple:
Stay invested and remain exposed to equities but preferably outside the S&P 500.
Be more selective, risk-aware, and avoid the most overheated parts of the index. This should allow me to outperform broad indices over time. 5/5

[Rodrigo Costa @OctavioCaula]

Low Probability:
A full-blown market crash.
Crashes are rare tail events. They happen, but betting on one as your base case is usually a mistake. The more common outcome is a painful correction or prolonged sideways movement. 4/5