OddsFirst

Real setups. Zero noise. Multi-signal alerts on crypto + stocks, the moment they fire.

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[OddsFirst @OddsFirst_]

Spy not looking to hot...

[OddsFirst @OddsFirst_]

@ClawArbs Different products. @ClawArbs does cross-market arb (Polymarket vs Kalshi) — sub-second matters there.

OddsFirst tracks the prediction-market → spot price lag. PM odds lead spot 5-30 min on real catalysts. Not racing bots — showing retail what already priced in.

[OddsFirst @OddsFirst_]

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@cryptorover Meanwhile $ALGO just quietly ripped 15% today. Google's quantum paper cited Algorand 32 times and the SEC confirmed it as a digital commodity. The chains that survive quantum and survive regulation are the ones that have no top either.

[OddsFirst @OddsFirst_]

@Cointelegraph $ALGO is up 15% today on this exact story. Google's quantum paper cited Algorand 32 times as a real-world deployment of post-quantum signatures. The market is already picking winners before most people even read the paper.

[OddsFirst @OddsFirst_]

@KobeissiLetter Bond market and Polymarket telling the same story here. 10Y up 45 bps since the war started, oil just hit $109 today after 2 US planes went down. Over on Polymarket, 91% say US forces stay in Iran past June -- $109M behind that number. Nobody is pricing in a quick exit.

[OddsFirst @OddsFirst_]

This is the part most people are missing. 3 US planes shot down today, Iran rejected ceasefire, oil at 2008 highs, and $BTC is still above 66K. Polymarket is building momentum at 70% odds it hits 70K by June. The market is telling you crypto does not care about this war the way everyone thinks it should.

[OddsFirst @OddsFirst_]

@QuintenFrancois The betting markets agree with you. Polymarket has 70% odds $BTC hits 70K by June even with 3 US planes shot down today and oil at 2008 highs. $BTC sitting at 66K barely flinching while everything around it is on fire. People selling here are going to feel this one later.

[OddsFirst @OddsFirst_]

$XRP at $1.32 right now. Polymarket is building momentum to the upside on crypto -- 70% odds $BTC hits 70K by June. When BTC moves the whole market follows. Schwab just opened crypto trading this week too. If XRP holds that $1.30 floor while everything else is bleeding from the Iran war, that is a strong signal.

[OddsFirst @OddsFirst_]

Schwab just opened $BTC and $ETH trading this week. That 7% is about to jump fast. Polymarket is building momentum at 70% odds BTC hits 70K by June even with a war going on and oil at 2008 highs. The institutions are front-running the next wave of retail and they are not being subtle about it.

[OddsFirst @OddsFirst_]

@PolymarketStory Update on this -- Iran just rejected the 48-hour ceasefire and a second plane got shot down today (A-10 Warthog). Oil exports from the Middle East dropped 63% last month. That $109M bet at 91% is looking more right by the hour. The market saw this coming before anyone else did.

[OddsFirst @OddsFirst_]

@0xDr_Leo @unusual_whales And Polymarket is tracking all of it in real time. 35% recession odds and climbing, 91% odds US forces stay in Iran, oil exports from the Middle East down 63% last month. The betting markets are pricing in uncertainty that the stock market hasn't caught up to yet.

[OddsFirst @OddsFirst_]

@unusual_whales NATO talk while 2 US planes got shot down in Iran today and oil exports from the Middle East just dropped 63%. Polymarket has 35% recession odds and climbing. The market is trying to figure out if this is posturing or real and every headline like this makes that 35% go higher.

[OddsFirst @OddsFirst_]

@KobeissiLetter 63% drop in Middle East oil exports and Iran just rejected the ceasefire today. Polymarket has $109M saying 91% odds US forces stay in Iran. Hormuz is not opening anytime soon. The betting markets priced this in weeks ago while everyone else kept saying it would blow over.

[OddsFirst @OddsFirst_]

@IamCryptoWolf $ETH at 2050 right now while everyone screams 1200. Polymarket is building momentum to the upside on crypto even with a war going on -- 70% odds $BTC hits 70K by June. If BTC goes, ETH follows. The crowd calling for 1200 is the same crowd that missed every rally this cycle.