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Model recommendations & props. Research desk for all sportsWe show the why and track every one, win or lose. A betting community sharing what works. Discord.
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"Log the decision before the result, resolve it automatically, and preserve wins and losses."
That sentence is on our site. It's the whole company. 👇
A year ago this was a spreadsheet and a bad idea. Today it's six purpose built desks.
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DFS was the last piece. It's loaded. Which means the whole thing is built.
BETA FOR THE ENTIRE SITE OPENS SHORTLY. 👀
Here's what makes it different, and it isn't the models.
Everybody in this space competes on volume and confidence. More picks. Louder picks. Trust me bro.
We log the decision BEFORE the result. Then we keep it. Wins and losses, both, permanently, where you can go back and check us.
Trust is a process, not a badge.
You've watched us do it all season. Plays before first pitch. Losses posted the next morning. NO PLAY on the day after our best night of the year.
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@sports4casuals Ride the day lates tonight
Merrill and Trout. The whole world moved onto Mesa jr today.
@TheBetDesk That nervousness at the end wondering if they would kick a field goal. The moments I live for.
UNDER 44 CASHES. Chiefs 31, Broncos 10. Total of 41. ✅
Now let's be straight about it, because that's the deal.
We projected this game in the high 30s. Two teams grinding, neither one scoring much. The game went 31-10.
We said the Chiefs were a dink and dunk offense that lives on field goals. They scored 31. We said Denver had the best defense in football. They gave up 31.
So how did the under hit? Because Denver's offense scored TEN. The half of this we got right was "these two don't score on each other" and it turned out only one of them couldn't.
Right number. Wrong movie.
That's the thing about totals. You can be wrong about who scores and still be right about how much gets scored. We'll take it, and we'll tell you exactly how it happened rather than pretend we saw 31-10 coming.
The wind was real, by the way. Gusts to 29 all night. Denver's kicking game and deep ball went nowhere.
Posted at 44 before kickoff. Market closed at 42.5. Every number logged, every result posted. 📊
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MONDAY NIGHT. Broncos at Chiefs. UNDER 44. 🏈
We took 44. Books are already down to 43.5, and DraftKings is at 42.5.
We're holding a number nobody can get anymore. 👇
THE TAPE
These two teams played twice last year. 22-19. Then 20-13 on Christmas.
Forty one points. Then THIRTY THREE. Both unders. They do not score on each other.
THE CHIEFS ARE NOT WHO YOU THINK
Kansas City last year scored 21 a game. Their games went under 13 times in 17. At Arrowhead the under went 8-1.
Mahomes still moves the chains, but it's dink and dunk now. One throw in nine goes 20 yards downfield. 20th in explosive plays. 21st in touchdowns. Long drives, short throws, then a field goal or a punt.
DENVER HAS THE BEST DEFENSE IN FOOTBALL
Fewest touchdowns allowed in the league. Most sacks, four a game. Opponents convert one in three on third down. Top six against the run AND the pass.
Their offense would rather grind than trade haymakers. 🧠
THE WIND IS WHY THIS BECAME A PLAY
Right now at Arrowhead: 13 mph sustained, gusts to 29. Open air stadium. At night.
Gusts like that take away the deep ball both teams already barely throw, and they turn every field goal past 45 into a coin flip.
Since 2015, open air games with wind at 12 or higher go under about 60 percent of the time. When our number ALSO leans under, like it does tonight by more than four points, that record is 82-35. Seventy percent. That agreement is the whole reason this is on the card.
We project 19-19. The number is 44. 💰
What beats us: Mahomes at home on Monday night, a short field off a turnover, a defensive score. Real. That's why it's a 60 percent play and not a lock.
But the market is already running our direction, the wind hasn't moved, and we're holding a number that's gone from every board.
📊 Every play posted before kickoff. Graded after.
👉 Under on Mahomes at home in primetime. Come at me 👇
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@bbrownDTP All the names out there are, and this is the only one looking promising. They don’t make it easy.
HOME RUN BOARD, 8pm check. 💣
Six homers off the board so far.
One of them is a crown. Schwarber. ✅
The other five: Teoscar, Bazzana, Adell, Eldridge, Burleson. All on the board. None of them crowned.
So the board's doing the job and the crowns aren't, at least not yet. That's the honest read at 8 o'clock.
Value tags 0 for 5. Nimmo, Raleigh, Abreu, Stowers, Murakami all quiet.
Late games haven't started. Raleigh, Stowers, Trout, Yordan, Goodman all still coming.
Full tally in the morning either way.
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Jo Adell and Travis Bazzana. Back to back innings, first inning, both gone. 💣
Both were on tonight's board. Neither had a crown.
The two guys we DID crown in that game, Murakami and Vargas, are 0 for 1 so far.
Sometimes the board knows more than the crown does. We list the names for a reason.
Still the first inning. Long night ahead.
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@TheBetDesk Sign us up. Would love people to see what we are building.
Victor Mesa Jr. reminds me of Jackson Merrill from yesterday. Don’t have any shares at all. But reloaded on Merrill.
Jo Adell and Travis Bazzana. Back to back innings, first inning, both gone. 💣
Both were on tonight's board. Neither had a crown.
The two guys we DID crown in that game, Murakami and Vargas, are 0 for 1 so far.
Sometimes the board knows more than the crown does. We list the names for a reason.
Still the first inning. Long night ahead.
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TUESDAY HOME RUN BOARD 💣
Three crowns in the Yankees lineup tonight. Not one of them is Aaron Judge.
Ben Rice. Spencer Jones. Luis Garcia Jr. 👀
62 names. 20 favorites. 5 VALUE tags. And the board tells you exactly what it doesn't know yet: 23 of 30 lineups posted, seven pending, and James Wood and CJ Abrams already marked OUT for Washington.
The crown means we like them to go deep. VALUE means the price is longer than our number says it should be. Nimmo at the bottom of the Rangers card is the longest one on the board.
👉 PICK ONE. Who's leaving the yard? 👇
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TUESDAY HOME RUN BOARD 💣
Three crowns in the Yankees lineup tonight. Not one of them is Aaron Judge.
Ben Rice. Spencer Jones. Luis Garcia Jr. 👀
62 names. 20 favorites. 5 VALUE tags. And the board tells you exactly what it doesn't know yet: 23 of 30 lineups posted, seven pending, and James Wood and CJ Abrams already marked OUT for Washington.
The crown means we like them to go deep. VALUE means the price is longer than our number says it should be. Nimmo at the bottom of the Rangers card is the longest one on the board.
👉 PICK ONE. Who's leaving the yard? 👇
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Jacob deGrom against a guy with a 1.76 WHIP.
We took it at -106 this afternoon. It's -123 now. 👇
Three plays tonight ⚾
TEXAS RANGERS (vs Red Sox, 8:05)
BIGGEST EDGE ON THE CARD, and the market agrees with us.
Patrick Sandoval has walked 27 hitters in 55 innings. Nearly two baserunners every frame. Worst WHIP of any starter we've faced this month.
deGrom: 186 strikeouts, 38 walks, 1.08 WHIP. Four of his last five were zero or two earned runs. One blowup in there, because he's 38 and they happen.
Boston doesn't hit righties. 16 percent worse than an average offense. Story is 56 percent worse than an average hitter against them. Duran 39 percent worse. Against deGrom that's a lot of easy outs.
We took -106 at noon. It's -123. Whoever's moving that number sees what we see, and nobody can get our price anymore.
Honest: Boston's the better team by eight games with an excellent pen. And a number this big is still a strong lean, not a lock. The last edge this size lost.
CHICAGO CUBS (vs Braves, 7:40)
Won this side last night. Back again.
The Cubs against lefties are the best lineup playing tonight. 24 percent better than average. Suzuki 32 percent better than an average hitter, Crow-Armstrong 31, Kelly 35.
Martín Pérez has a 3.08 ERA and walks nearly four per nine. He just threw seven shutout innings, so we're not calling him bad. We're saying the walks catch up against this lineup.
Atlanta is 17 percent WORSE than average against righties. Gausman has 171 strikeouts in 166 innings. His last start was rough, 6 earned in 4, but the strikeouts are real.
Honest: the Cubs bullpen has ONE fresh arm. Atlanta has six. If this is close in the 7th, the edge flips.
⚾ SAN DIEGO TEAM TOTAL UNDER 6.5 (at Coors, 8:40)
Under at Coors again. Hear us out again.
San Diego has to score SEVEN. That's a lot anywhere. Cronenworth is 56 percent worse than an average hitter against lefties, Merrill 30 percent worse, Machado 15 percent worse. They're seeing a lefty.
Wind blowing IN at 10 mph. Coors with the wind in is still Coors, but it's not the launching pad the number is priced for.
And Kyle Freeland, for all the ugly season numbers, has three one-run starts in his last five including a nine inning gem. He's been better than his ERA lately.
Honest: it's Coors, the Colorado pen is bad, and this same leg lost last night. Thinnest play we've got. 🧠
👉 Under at Coors two nights in a row after it lost. Stubborn or right? 👇
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@BarrelLabMLB_ The value you bring by consistently reminding viewers to play their straights instead of just parlaying is truly valuable. Also, your daily reminder other markets besides home runs, reminding them of hits, runs, RBIs, and fantasy scores, strikeouts is a huge value.
WHAT MOVED THE BOARD. Tuesday. 🏈
Five things from the last 24 hours that change a number, and which way.
1. KENNETH WALKER: 173 yards and 2 TDs in his Chiefs debut.
Mahomes threw for 184. The Chiefs won 31-10 on the ground. That's a different offense than the one the market priced all summer, and every Walker rushing line this week starts from a new baseline. Watch his number. It should be up, and it should keep going.
2. SAM DARNOLD OUT, DREW LOCK STARTS for Seattle at Arizona.
Soft tissue, short term, no timeline. Every Seattle passing prop is a different bet now. Lock doesn't push it downfield the same way. JSN's line should come down, the Seahawks team total should come down, and Arizona's side of the spread should be a point better than it was Monday.
3. KYLER MURRAY IN CONCUSSION PROTOCOL. Wentz likely starts at Chicago.
Murray lasted 11 plays. Wentz finished the comeback. If Wentz goes, the Vikings passing volume probably holds but the rushing yards from the QB spot disappear entirely. That's a leg people forget to reprice.
4. LANDON DICKERSON TO IR. Eagles lose a Pro Bowl guard for at least four games.
Interior line matters more for Saquon than for Hurts. Barkley's rushing lines against a good front should tighten. The Eagles will still score, but the how changes.
5. MYLES GARRETT SURGERY, IR. Rams without their best pass rusher for at least four.
Zero tackles, zero pressures in his debut, and now we know why. The Rams defense that was priced as a top unit isn't one for a month. Opposing QB props against LA should go up, starting with the Giants. 📊
Every one of these hits the model before it hits the card. That's why the card comes out when it does.
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Elly ✅ Okamoto ✅ PCA✅ Tatis✅
MONDAY HOME RUN BOARD 💣
New on the board tonight: VALUE tags. Eight of them.
That's where the price is longer than our number says it should be. Murakami. Montgomery. Trout. Neto. Stowers. Bleday. And Brett Callahan sitting way out there at the bottom of the Tigers card.
The diamond means we like them to go deep. The VALUE tag means we like them more than the book does.
Judge and Ben Rice both crowned again in Minnesota.
👉 PICK ONE. Crown or value tag, who's leaving the yard? 👇
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MONDAY HOME RUN BOARD 💣
New on the board tonight: VALUE tags. Eight of them.
That's where the price is longer than our number says it should be. Murakami. Montgomery. Trout. Neto. Stowers. Bleday. And Brett Callahan sitting way out there at the bottom of the Tigers card.
The diamond means we like them to go deep. The VALUE tag means we like them more than the book does.
Judge and Ben Rice both crowned again in Minnesota.
👉 PICK ONE. Crown or value tag, who's leaving the yard? 👇
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MONDAY HOME RUN BOARD 💣
New on the board tonight: VALUE tags. Eight of them.
That's where the price is longer than our number says it should be. Murakami. Montgomery. Trout. Neto. Stowers. Bleday. And Brett Callahan sitting way out there at the bottom of the Tigers card.
The diamond means we like them to go deep. The VALUE tag means we like them more than the book does.
Judge and Ben Rice both crowned again in Minnesota.
👉 PICK ONE. Crown or value tag, who's leaving the yard? 👇
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@YankeesFan845 Let add some Rafael Palmeiro and really spice this one up.
MONDAY NIGHT. Broncos at Chiefs. UNDER 44. 🏈
We took 44. Books are already down to 43.5, and DraftKings is at 42.5.
We're holding a number nobody can get anymore. 👇
THE TAPE
These two teams played twice last year. 22-19. Then 20-13 on Christmas.
Forty one points. Then THIRTY THREE. Both unders. They do not score on each other.
THE CHIEFS ARE NOT WHO YOU THINK
Kansas City last year scored 21 a game. Their games went under 13 times in 17. At Arrowhead the under went 8-1.
Mahomes still moves the chains, but it's dink and dunk now. One throw in nine goes 20 yards downfield. 20th in explosive plays. 21st in touchdowns. Long drives, short throws, then a field goal or a punt.
DENVER HAS THE BEST DEFENSE IN FOOTBALL
Fewest touchdowns allowed in the league. Most sacks, four a game. Opponents convert one in three on third down. Top six against the run AND the pass.
Their offense would rather grind than trade haymakers. 🧠
THE WIND IS WHY THIS BECAME A PLAY
Right now at Arrowhead: 13 mph sustained, gusts to 29. Open air stadium. At night.
Gusts like that take away the deep ball both teams already barely throw, and they turn every field goal past 45 into a coin flip.
Since 2015, open air games with wind at 12 or higher go under about 60 percent of the time. When our number ALSO leans under, like it does tonight by more than four points, that record is 82-35. Seventy percent. That agreement is the whole reason this is on the card.
We project 19-19. The number is 44. 💰
What beats us: Mahomes at home on Monday night, a short field off a turnover, a defensive score. Real. That's why it's a 60 percent play and not a lock.
But the market is already running our direction, the wind hasn't moved, and we're holding a number that's gone from every board.
📊 Every play posted before kickoff. Graded after.
👉 Under on Mahomes at home in primetime. Come at me 👇
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Monday. Five plays. Two of them have a built-in refund. 👇
⚾ CLEVELAND TEAM TOTAL UNDER 3.5 (vs White Sox, 6:40)
Sean Newcomb opens for Chicago. He's given up TWO home runs all season in 84 innings, and zero earned runs in four of his last five outings. Behind him is a White Sox bullpen that's been 19 percent better than average.
The top of Cleveland's order doesn't hit lefties. Kwan is 24 percent worse than an average hitter against them. Progressive Field plays cold, 67 degrees, wind blowing in. 🎯
Honest: an opener means Cleveland sees a lot of middle relief, and that's where a three-run inning lives. Ramírez is still Ramírez.
⚾ CHICAGO CUBS ML (vs Braves, 7:40)
This one is the lineups, not the pitchers. Let's be clear about that up front.
Atlanta is 11 percent WORSE than an average offense against lefties, and they're seeing one. Riley is 25 percent worse than average vs lefties. Yastrzemski 44 percent worse. It's Olson and Acuña carrying it alone.
Meanwhile the Cubs against righties are one of the best lineups in baseball. Pete Crow-Armstrong 59 percent better than an average hitter. Conforto 25. Suzuki 19. Happ 19.
And Atlanta's throwing Reynaldo López, a swingman making a spot start with a 1.39 WHIP and 6, 5 and 4 earned in three of his last five. 💰
Honest, and it's real: OUR starter is bad. Peterson has a 5.28 ERA and the worst WHIP on the card. Atlanta is the better team with the better bullpen. This is the bats and the lefty split, period.
⚾ BRAVES/CUBS GAME TOTAL UNDER 9.5 (same game, 7:40)
Wrigley is playing COLD tonight. 70 degrees, and that 13 mph wind is a crosswind with basically nothing blowing out. This is not a Wrigley shootout day.
Atlanta's lineup against a lefty is the weak link. Both bullpens are good. We project 9.0 against 9.5. 🧠
Note: same game as the Cubs play above. A Cubs 8-6 win cashes one and loses the other. They're not the same bet.
⚾ PADRES/ROCKIES UNDER 11 (8:40) 🏔
Under at Coors. Hear us out.
The line is ELEVEN. A whole number. Win on 10 or fewer, get your money back on exactly 11, lose on 12 or more. The model says this lands on exactly 11 about one time in eleven. That refund is the whole edge.
Casey Mize is the right pitcher for altitude. 14 homers in 119 innings, about half a homer per nine. He keeps it in the yard. And when he leaves, San Diego's bullpen is 24 percent better than average and strikes out 27 percent of everyone. The Padres side goes quiet late. 💰
Wind is NOT blowing out tonight. That matters at Coors.
Honest: it's Coors. Sugano is getting hammered, 29 homers and 6, 5, 6, 3, 5 earned in his last five. Colorado hits righties. This is a price play with a free tie, not a pitchers' duel.
⚾ SEATTLE MARINERS ML (at Angels, 9:38)
Thinnest play on the card and we're saying so.
The Angels are 56-93 and after Trout their lineup against lefties is a wasteland. Moore 86 percent worse than average. Lowe 23 percent worse. Seattle has the bats: Canzone 47 percent better, Arozarena 32, Julio 28.
Now the problem, and it's a big one. Reid Detmers has allowed TWO earned runs in his last five starts COMBINED. 0, 1, 1, 0, 0. He's the best pitcher going tonight and he's on the other side. Our starter is a rookie with four starts. Seattle's pen has zero fresh arms.
This cleared our bar by a tenth of a point. Near even money on the better team against the worst one. That's all it is.
👉 Under at Coors or fading the hottest pitcher in baseball. Which one's dumber? 👇
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We took Under 10 in the Mariners/A's game overnight.
The market has since moved to 9.
We're holding a number nobody else can get. 👇
Five afternoon plays, one tonight ⚾
⚾ MARINERS/A'S UNDER 10 (4:05)
Here's why that matters. Every game that lands on exactly 9 pushes at today's price and WINS at ours. Exactly 10 refunds us. That's a full run of cushion the rest of the board doesn't have. 🧠
Bryce Miller has the best strikeout to walk rate of any starter on the card. Wind is blowing IN at 8 mph. 76 degrees, not the 90s.
Honest: Miller's results have been ugly lately, 5, 5, 6, 1, 4 earned. And Jacob Lopez walks everybody. This is a price play with a free run attached, not a pitchers' duel.
⚾ ATLANTA BRAVES (vs Phillies, 1:35)
BIGGEST EDGE ON THE CARD.
Andrew Painter has given up 19 HOME RUNS in 110 innings. Nearly two a game. His last five: 5, 1, 3, 0, 5 earned. The bad days are very bad.
Atlanta's heart of the order eats righties. Olson 42 percent better than an average hitter, Michael Harris 37, Acuña 24. And Grant Holmes has thrown shutout ball in three of his last five, including his last one. 💰
Atlanta's pen is 24 percent better than average with twice the fresh arms Philly has.
Honest: Philly's lineup is better than Atlanta's. Harper 58 percent better than average, Schwarber 54. This is the pitching matchup and the bullpen, not the bats.
⚾ WASHINGTON NATIONALS (vs Angels, 1:35)
Third straight day on this side. 2-0 so far.
Grayson Rodriguez: 6.28 ERA. 1.57 WHIP. 37 walks in 82 innings. 14 homers. Worst starter on the board by every measure.
James Wood is 60 percent better than an average hitter against righties. CJ Abrams 35 percent better. Against a guy who can't find the zone, at home, against a team that's lost 92 games.
Honest and it's a real one: Washington is starting Riley Cornelio, who has ONE career start and walks seven and a half per nine. Bad starter against a worse one. We're on the better lineup and the worse opponent. 🧠
⚾ MIAMI TEAM TOTAL OVER 3.5 (vs Dodgers, 1:40)
Miami just needs FOUR.
Emmet Sheehan has allowed 21 home runs in 101 innings. Nearly two per nine. His last five: 2, 6, 1, 5, 1.
Otto Lopez is 37 percent better than an average hitter against righties, Stowers 25, Conine 22. Four runs is one inning from that group.
The Dodgers can win 9-4 and this cashes. 🎯
Honest: the Dodgers pen is elite and loanDepot kills homers. It has to happen against Sheehan.
⚾ MILWAUKEE TEAM TOTAL UNDER 4.5 (vs Reds, 2:10)
The hard sell, and we're selling the pitcher.
Chase Burns is the best arm on the board today. 2.73 ERA over 148 innings. 176 strikeouts. Two or fewer earned in four of his last five, two shutouts in there.
Milwaukee has to score FIVE. Burns goes six. That leaves three innings to find five runs. 💰
Honest, and it's a big one: Milwaukee is 93-56 and their lineup is elite against righties. Seven above-average bats. And the Reds bullpen has ZERO fresh arms. Whatever Burns leaves behind goes to tired relievers against the best team in the league. This is Burns or nothing.
📊 55-41, +7.78 units across 96 graded plays.
One more tonight, and it's all about the wind. 👀
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