OH Analytics

Analytics | Data insights | Polling & Election Intelligence

[OH Analytics @Oh_Analytics]

Adeleke won the higher-turnout LGAs — 44.8% average against the APC's 42.6%.

But turnout explains only 7% of the variation in his LGA share, and the gap isn't statistically significant across 30 councils.

Where he gained since 2022 tracks turnout at −0.03. Basically zero.

[OH Analytics @Oh_Analytics]

OSUN 2026: THE NUMBERS

Adeleke 511,067. Oyebamiji 444,815. A margin of 66,252 — more than double his 28,344 in 2022.

We've taken the INEC declaration apart, LGA by LGA, against 2022.

17 charts. One dataset. A thread 🧵

#OsunDecides2026.

[OH Analytics @Oh_Analytics]

ADC concentration

Najeem Salaam polled 17,180 statewide.

5,053 of them — 29% — came from Ejigbo alone, where he took 12.5%.

Across the other 29 LGAs he averaged about 350 votes.

That's not a third force. That's a favourite son

[OH Analytics @Oh_Analytics]

Ikire delivered. Oyebamiji took 73% of Irewole, turning a 3,982 APC lead in 2022 into 19,038.

Not enough. Adeleke's Ede pair went 28,062 → 45,113.

Both parties banked their candidates' hometowns harder than in 2022. One hometown is two LGAs. The other is one.

[OH Analytics @Oh_Analytics]

Rejected ballots

20,721 Osun voters queued, got accredited, marked a paper — and had it thrown out.

Ilesa West spoiled 3.17%. Ayedire 0.87%. Same ballot, same day, 3.6x apart.

Statewide it improved: 2.43% → 2.06%.

[OH Analytics @Oh_Analytics]

*Knife-edge councils*

Boluwaduro: 7,118 to 7,050. Sixty-eight votes.

Five LGAs finished under 1,000:
Boluwaduro 68
Isokan 298
Ifedayo 591
Olaoluwa 719
Ayedaade 962

Boluwaduro alone rejected 177 ballots.

[OH Analytics @Oh_Analytics]

Adeleke won the higher-turnout LGAs — 44.8% average against the APC's 42.6%.

But turnout explains only 7% of the variation in his LGA share, and the gap isn't statistically significant across 30 councils.

Where he gained since 2022 tracks turnout at −0.03. Basically zero.

[OH Analytics @Oh_Analytics]

ADC concentration

Najeem Salaam polled 17,180 statewide.

5,053 of them — 29% — came from Ejigbo alone, where he took 12.5%.

Across the other 29 LGAs he averaged about 350 votes.

That's not a third force. That's a favourite son