TOB TWIO

Seasoned oil trader and analyst, devout Traditional Catholic, Pres. of The Oil Balance, LLC

Pls visit

[TOB TWIO @OilBal_TWIO]

@Amalteya3000 Utilization is far more important than the absolute inventory number. As the number of tanks have increased since 2004 so has the volume of unusable tank bottoms.

[TOB TWIO @OilBal_TWIO]

@JavierBlas The diesel, heating oil, and Jet problems could still catch a second wind late summer / early fall...

[TOB TWIO @OilBal_TWIO]

Aromatics could get tight later this summer esp if retail prices cool off and demand stays decent. Really doubt India will be floating those typical cargos of Alky into Atlantic Basin either... I could see a supply side issue for both CBOB and RBOB (NYMEX spec) later this driving season.

[TOB TWIO @OilBal_TWIO]

@rotting_garbage @LizThomasStrat

[TOB TWIO @OilBal_TWIO]

@traders_guild @LizThomasStrat @grok

[TOB TWIO @OilBal_TWIO]

@zerohedge Here is how it looks when you map out all the volumes the DOE has already awarded, end up around 280MB in SPR inventory

[TOB TWIO @OilBal_TWIO]

@calvinfroedge Here are the SPR draws based on awards granted so far - getting down to 280MB or so

[TOB TWIO @OilBal_TWIO]

@HFI_Research which is what, 15-17MB? Might be sooner than end of June

[TOB TWIO @OilBal_TWIO]

@JavierBlas Refiners don't have to pay the RVO 'tax' on jet fuel

[TOB TWIO @OilBal_TWIO]

@Hedgeye Based on awards so far...

[TOB TWIO @OilBal_TWIO]

Hi @DarioCpx as others have commented the monthly data (which is higher quality) is always released on a 2 month lag.. on the last biz day of May they will release March data. Meanwhile, you can find the EIA weekly estimates here, scroll down to find 'SPR' under the 'Stocks' heading https://t.co/B1Md4M1EtA

[TOB TWIO @OilBal_TWIO]

Another 9MB+ SPR draw last week. US SPR stocks are down 48MB since the beginning of Apr. Of the draws so far, 71% has been sour and 29% sweet.

[TOB TWIO @OilBal_TWIO]

Total commercial oil stocks typically start increasing this time of year, but that seems a big ask this year

[TOB TWIO @OilBal_TWIO]

@Rory_Johnston Don't forget the RINs

[TOB TWIO @OilBal_TWIO]

@Rory_Johnston de-ceased

[TOB TWIO @OilBal_TWIO]

I went to a Catholic University about 10 years ago and the Catholic 101 class was taught by an old nun and one of the books we were assigned for the class was documents of V2... Sister would read a passage to the class and say, it didn't used to be this way, before the council we would....'
I found a Latin NO shortly after that and within a few years found the TLM.
Don't rule out reading major V2 docs as part of your 200 year history. It would be an interesting compare and contrast.

[TOB TWIO @OilBal_TWIO]

@AdiSurreyEnergy @OilCfd Not sure how it works in Europe but some of the US pipeline bbls have pretty long payment terms, 30-50 days, depending how far the refinery is from the source. Refined product revenue usually comes in much more quickly

[TOB TWIO @OilBal_TWIO]

@calvinfroedge Just like in Top Gun!

[TOB TWIO @OilBal_TWIO]

@Vitus_osst 🙏