Trinity Olmstead

[Trinity Olmstead @OlmsteadTrinity]

@Nebraskademsoc Tbh, every safe state Dem senator needs a creditable primary.

[Trinity Olmstead @OlmsteadTrinity]

@Garrett_Archer I still think GOP will take the lead as Election Day comes closer, since Dems only have one contested statewide race. But that’s impressive.

[Trinity Olmstead @OlmsteadTrinity]

@NilesGApol Yup, I expect most polls to have Bottoms down by 3-4. I’ve been saying Ossoff needs to win by more than 5 for KLB to win outright.

[Trinity Olmstead @OlmsteadTrinity]

@BaseCentrist Anywhere from D +0.2 to R +9. I think it really depends on who’s Coleman’s running mate (almost has to be Adkins if there’s any shot), where Beshear is at in the presidential primary, Trump approval, scandal on Comer’s side, etc.

[Trinity Olmstead @OlmsteadTrinity]

@AustinHoney30 @UFStudent2 Specter also switched parties, so like I still count 2006 more. Where you had someone invested in Dem politics (was 500 votes from being VP), compared to someone who tried to do a last minute Hail Mary of his political career, which still failed.

[Trinity Olmstead @OlmsteadTrinity]

@KJVPopulist If Kari Lake runs in Iowa, that seat could end up a tossup. Starts Lean R but even she can make a red state competitive.

[Trinity Olmstead @OlmsteadTrinity]

@swiftiefored @DrewSav Desantis kept that seat open for almost a year last time it was vacant so I’m unsure if Florida has any laws.

[Trinity Olmstead @OlmsteadTrinity]

@AndyWarrenStein @GottheimerHater @StatisticUrban The last 4/8 Dem nominees since 1984 have been VP. If anything it’s stupid NOT to take it. Win or lose in 2028, it automatically makes him the front runner in 2032/2036.

[Trinity Olmstead @OlmsteadTrinity]

@BaseCentrist Idk why people keep thinking that Dems are running two white men on a national ticket. 2004 will be the last time that will probably ever happen.

[Trinity Olmstead @OlmsteadTrinity]

@BasedIllinoisan This is probably most likely that happens.

[Trinity Olmstead @OlmsteadTrinity]

@electionsjoe And Kornacki is on tonight I think

[Trinity Olmstead @OlmsteadTrinity]

@NilesGApol Can’t lie, they may need a new social media person. Late posts to things but also keep referring to her in the third person, and that doesn’t come off as authentic.

[Trinity Olmstead @OlmsteadTrinity]

@nikolamast02 @EarthoOS I feel Fried would’ve at least match Demings numbers.

[Trinity Olmstead @OlmsteadTrinity]

@NoChildAbuse67 @deeznuts561105 @RepWextonStan The downside is DCCC will hyper focus on the 1st, 2nd and 6th that they won’t put much money in the 8th or be too late. Similar situation happened in GA in 18 where it was laser focused on GA-06 (which flipped) but GA 7 came down to 500 votes. Investment didn’t happen until Oct

[Trinity Olmstead @OlmsteadTrinity]

@RepWextonStan Also I see a scenario where Hamadeh runs against Kelly in 2028 to avoid a loss.

[Trinity Olmstead @OlmsteadTrinity]

@RepWextonStan Need a strong candidate in 2028. The candidate there is good this year, but I still think it’s 53-47 R. But this is definitely a district that will catch up to trends.

[Trinity Olmstead @OlmsteadTrinity]

@DylanBallard_UK Yes, like when they used to announce it a few days before, it’s tough. Especially for the black.

[Trinity Olmstead @OlmsteadTrinity]

@KJVPopulist I just counted like at least 30 where if you run a DSA candidate, it easily turns into a lean or even tossup potential district.

[Trinity Olmstead @OlmsteadTrinity]

@MTC_MATT @AmarionWx Tbh, I think they do win or lose. I think it’ll be 1. Ossoff 2. McLaurin 3. Miller 4 KLB. Like I don’t see KLB winning without McLaurin and Miller winning honestly.

[Trinity Olmstead @OlmsteadTrinity]

@Kattergang I think Lucia and maybe Bush are the only ones on this list left with a shot to win.