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TRADERS STAY CAUTIOUS DESPITE CRUDE PRICE FALL AS OIL DEAL UNCERTAIN; SHIPPING, PRODUCTION RECOVERY MAY TAKE MONTHS
RESERVE TANKS HAVE FALLEN SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THE START OF THE WAR, RAISING U.S. RESPONSE TO SUPPLY SHOCKS CONCERNS, DESPITE HOPES FOR A U.S.-IRAN DEAL AND STRAIT OF HORMUZ REOPENING TO STABILIZE MARKETS.
All these stocks hit new ALL TIME HIGHS at some point today
Advanced Micro Devices $AMD
SanDisk $SNDK
ASML Holdings $ASML
KLA Corporation $KLAC
Lam Research $LRCX
Western Digital $WDC
Applied Materials $AMAT
Delta Air Lines $DAL
United Airlines $UAL
Amkor Technology $AMKR
Seagate Technology $STX
Astera Labs $ALAB
Entegris $ENTG
Morgan Stanley $MS
GE Aerospace $GE
Sunbelt Rentals $SUNB
Monster Beverage $MNST
DigitalOcean $DOCN
Interactive Brokers $IBKR
Teradyne $TER
Semtech $SMTC
UBS Group $UBS
Viking Holdings $VIK
StoneX Group $SNEX
Live Nation Entertainment $LYV
Element Solutions $ESI
Linde $LIN
Allegro MicroSystems $ALGM
MetLife $MET
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial $MUFG
TTM Technologies $TTMI
Rush Street Interactive $RSI
State Street $STT
Nucor $NUE
Associated Banc-Corp $ASB
Webster Financial $WBS
Onto Innovation $ONTO
Toronto-Dominion Bank $TD
Bank of New York Mellon $BNY
Ralliant Corporation $RAL
Steel Dynamics $STLD
Garrett Motion $GTX
Hinge Health $HNGE
Bank of Nova Scotia $BNS
FedEx $FDX
Marriott International $MAR
Williams-Sonoma $WSM
Perimeter Solutions $PRM
SharkNinja $SN
Ralph Lauren $RL
So I've been pretty bearish for the most part, but remaining as objective as possible, 3d bull div on $BTC doesn't happen often and it's potentially starting to form here.
Need to remain open to the idea of a bottom forming around here... but as always it will require confirmation.
Gonna be an interesting month.
Comparison is the thief of joy… it’s you against the you last year, last month, and yesterday. Get 1% better everyday. The moment you look at someone else and instantly want what they have without taking the journey they took… you’ve already lost the race.
Tether is launching GEL₮, an official stablecoin for the Georgian Lari, backed by the Government of Georgia.
One of the first gov-backed national currency stablecoins ever.
I am going to enter more oil buys before the weekend at these dip prices post flush out.
Not buying this repetitive script.
No agreement on uranium (main issue)
No agreement on Iran maintaining control of hormuz.
No removal of dual blockade.
No in person talks or diplomacy efforts.
No change in the core problems.
No change in increasing military presence.
Trying to prime and cushion Oil markets so the escalation over weekend does not hit as hard from higher prices.
Will risk manage if cemented resolution confirmed by Iran and US not by Pakistan or Turkey or Saudi arabia
Oil just spiked $4 based off of THIS headline alone
Oil initially dropped down to around $100 per barrel after renewed optimism regarding diplomacy efforts
But markets aren’t buying it anymore. Donald Trump’s word has lost its meaning.
So Oil waited… above the key $100 mark.
As soon as Iran stated, once again, that their uranium isn’t going anywhere, Oil buyers received the signal:
No tension release, possible escalations soon. Price rallied.
Where are we going next?
Fundamentally, there isn’t a single reason for Oil to drop anytime soon.
But we’ll have to manage the sporadig suppression attempts by the US and allies and be wary of sudden pullbacks once we tap into critial prices
Crude Oil Playbook-
I am still bullish on crude oil until there is cemented resolution with the Iran war and/or solutions to supply disruptions and freight.
US blockading Iranian ports adds onto the disruptions coupling with 80 refineries damaged. Huge disconnect between physical crude price and spot.
Even with the relief rally in stocks we have seen oil at elevated levels which are still high risk to inflation if maintained at these levels. US energy secretary stated minimum few weeks of energy price increases.
Geopolitically the deal fell apart, ceasefire expires next week, Israel itching to destroy Iran and a deal would require either US or Iran submitting full defeat which Iran has had the upper hand.
Oil suppression attempts have been annoying but getting smaller and smaller and if equities pricing was reflecting the conflict accurately then Crude should melt back to pre war prices quickly.
Oil is not meant to be elevated for a long period and when it is says a lot about market whale true positioning and expectations of conflict.
Need to look out for any confirmed deal from Iran or healthy flows rebounding in strait of hormuz.
I think Oil will turn bearish respecting HTF sell off points but not these lower prices or timing just yet.