Lee777

[Lee777 @OmniaBene]

@jun_song Hi Jun. Is Hermes agent better than Open webui? For a beginner, what do you recommend?

[Lee777 @OmniaBene]

@jun_song Compared to Hermes Agent, how about Open Webui?

[Lee777 @OmniaBene]

@SteamroomTrader SARK

[Lee777 @OmniaBene]

@KKDW_KOREA You the best sir!

[Lee777 @OmniaBene]

@dons_korea Great summary. With gold bidding, the near term trend as you pointed out is Risk Off. Will be interesting to see how btc behaves.

[Lee777 @OmniaBene]

@yieldsearcher Have a great Easter weekend!

[Lee777 @OmniaBene]

@yieldsearcher Very important points. Thanks for the highlight. Will be interesting to see what happens to it in the US. It won’t go away without a fight.

[Lee777 @OmniaBene]

@KKDW_KOREA Truly gold insight here!

[EndGame Macro @onechancefreedm]

This entire sequence from tech tariff exemptions to foreign pension divestment to Europe’s risk premium on U.S. Treasuries reveals that we’re no longer in a normal trade war. We’re witnessing the slow, managed transition into a war economy framework cloaked as industrial policy, with markets, sovereigns, and tech monopolies being maneuvered to preserve U.S. system stability as Bretton Woods II teeters.

By allowing Apple, Nvidia, and Dell to bypass tariffs, the administration keeps California’s tax base from imploding (via inflated stock comp), shields passive U.S. equity flows from disruption, and ensures that the top-heavy U.S. indices crucial for pensions, consumer confidence, and foreign capital flows don’t collapse. But what’s actually happening is more strategic: the U.S. is weaponizing tariff policy to hollow out smaller firms, trap China’s debt-financed overcapacity in deflationary export loops, and force sovereign bondholders (Japan, EU) into longer maturity rollovers.

Zoom out, and it’s clear: exemptions for Big Tech aren’t incompetence they’re deliberate scaffolding. The tariff structure creates a regulatory moat, not just for national champions, but for the dollar itself. It buys time to reroute supply chains, rebuild domestic manufacturing buffers, and front-run a multipolar financial reset. The next 12–24 months are a closing window to prepare before debt rollover cliffs, EM blowups, and a possible FX-fueled collapse of the post-2009 financial regime.

This isn’t policy failure. It’s late-stage empire management.

[Lee777 @OmniaBene]

@Monetaryguy589 Great summary

[Lee777 @OmniaBene]

@gjkingkong Great summary

[Lee777 @OmniaBene]

@yieldsearcher Lol do they come down after this crazy period is over?

[Lee777 @OmniaBene]

Let’s see how the narrative changes.

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

ELECTRONIC PRODUCTS WILL COME UNDER SEMICONDUCTORS SECTION AND WILL HAVE SPECIAL TARIFFS COMING SOON -LUTNICK

[Lee777 @OmniaBene]

@yieldsearcher Honestly, didn’t expect this u-turn on tariff so soon. Perhaps chatter about internal dispute within the admin on tariff had some truth.

[Lee777 @OmniaBene]

@yieldsearcher What would the be impact of this tariff exemption on DXY and US yield?

[Lee777 @OmniaBene]

@Alisvolatprop12 @GONOGO_Korea Why would the USD go down?

[EndGame Macro @onechancefreedm]

While the EUR is strengthening, suggesting capital repatriation to Europe, European banks are simultaneously starved for USD liquidity, as reflected in deepening cross-currency basis swap spreads. This implies that while surface FX moves show confidence in EUR, beneath the surface, European institutions are bidding hard for dollar funding indicating acute USD funding pressure.

The FX swap market is the deepest shadow banking plumbing we have. When the cross-currency basis deviates materially from Covered Interest Parity (CIP), it signals stress participants are paying a premium just to access USD. This is exactly what happened in 2008 and again in March 2020 before coordinated central bank dollar swap lines were deployed. So while DXY or EUR/USD may not scream “crisis,” the swap markets are already flashing red.

The insight nobody is discussing: if the ECB or eurozone institutions need to defend this dollar basis stress while the Fed is trapped with high yields and a weakening dollar, the ECB may be forced to become a dollar-liquidity bridge just as Japan was before the 2022 yen crisis. This pulls Europe into U.S. liquidity dysfunction before the Fed even acts, stressing transatlantic collateral chains and potentially breaking the FX funding circuit.

Bottom line: Watch the cross-currency basis like a seismograph it’s a funding heartbeat, not a currency signal. What it’s whispering now is “liquidity fracture.”

[Mr. VIX @yieldsearcher]

IMO, DXY squeeze is the final step in this cycle that will be played out inevitably if this global deleveraging is allowed to go on for longer. What we are witnessing right now - capital repatriating out of US assets into Japan and Europe - is the first move in a broader liquidation phase.

Next will come the bill-paying phase: settling USD liabilities, which is pretty much what the repo hiccups and collapse in the cross-currency basis are signaling. Underneath the DXY collapse, banks are scrambling for dollar liquidity.

At the core, the USD is still underpinned by:
- The might of the U.S. military
- The largest gold reserves in the world that also recently emptied out vaults in London and Zurich
- Plentiful energy resources that Europe and Japan depend on

JPY and EUR are not backed by any of the three. Their value comes from their very linkage to USD.

So I am not sweating the USD selloff. Japan and EU banks are sitting on massive dollar liabilities, and that is an enormous leverage that the US holds on the two.

Really comes down to how Trump will utilize this leverage.
- He could weaponize dollar demand to extract major trade concessions from Japan and the EU. Such resolution would be bullish for risk assets.
- Or he could push for a global financial reset by (1) imposing capital controls (as Bessent has hinted at), (2) revaluing gold, and (3) demanding that Europe and Japan settle USD liabilities (the USD milkshake).

Will leave you with this q: Why do you think big boys are busy buying gold right now?

[Lee777 @OmniaBene]

@yieldsearcher Q: we see massive selling of US gov debt, not holding onto usd but flocking to gold and safer? currencies (yen, Swiss).

Yet most of world debt is still denominated in USD. If the system breaks like GFC, do you envision USD appreciation? Or current trend continues (away from USD)

[Lee777 @OmniaBene]

@yieldsearcher Shifting market narrative: stagflation -> deflation.