Do something everyday to nourish your mind, your body and your soul: be aware of the need to look after yourself and be grateful for life and health. That’s the key to happiness I’ve learnt this year. I no longer sweat the small stuff. ❤️
I was looking at the underlying numbers from United vs Fulham and it represents a consistent pattern that’s been showing in most of their games this season. High volume of shots taken, which indicates good progression between the thirds but very low xG and hence shot quality.
1/
re: running stats & fitness.
to start with, a fact is that the ball moves more when a team is in-possession, and them, less. when out-of-possession, they move more.
with an average of 59.8% possession, the 4th highest in PL, it should be expected that we run less.
[1/9⏬].
An aspect i’ve been tracking since last season is; teams which aim to create dynamic superiorities (1-2’s, rotations) and general fluidity struggle more in the earlier stages of the season. Mainly due to preseason factors and connectivity.
Aligned movement, technical security, pass details, timing, are all aspects which require connectivity. Automatisms such as passing in 3s, rotations, 1-2’s whilst adapting to the situation posed by opponent takes time to be effective [at this level].
Conditioning/fitness is key to upholding skill, technique and repeated actions. When the game model demands high/counter pressing, dynamism and constant readjustments, it requires collective synergy but also the capacity/conditioning to carry it out.
When fatigued, the ability to uphold IP, transition and OP skills gets affected and this is where player natures under pressure are exposed. Greater the difference in player natures, the more disconnect is shown in all phases of the game.
Player with natures that aren't truly matched to the dynamic and counter pressing principles, could also be affected mentally under fatigue by having to constantly think, identify space and move to achieve the superiorities required. In this case, achieving flow states becomes impossible as a collective, increasing the disconnect.
Application of more concepts, systems or passing circuits will naturally provide an aspect of protection. But there are teams centred around player first approaches which are affected more with the lack of technical sharpness, synergy, connection and variance in player natures.
ON UNITED: So I analysed United’s pre-season to understand and explain Carrick’s intentions for this season. It’s clear he wants to evolve last season’s game model — keeping their direct attacking style of play, giving individuals a level of freedom, leaning into United’s historical roots of exciting, risky football, whilst adding a level of control. Easier said than done though. Bridging that gap from immediate results into a more proactive and ball-dominant game model was where Ole and ten Hag stumbled..
https://t.co/wLhsOWy3aI
Biggest concern is the press / block, there was a moment on like 66:20 where we pushed up in a 424 to jump out and the balls just worked down the sides and the jumps aren’t there, too much space around the two midfielders and the CBs/FBs hesitant to push out because they’ll get spun if they’re touch-tight like Licha did for the RLC goal. But overall, genuinely feels like there’s no energy left??? so depleted.
Imo, the most entertaining AND tactically interesting team in the competition is Colombia 🇨🇴
Extremely energetic and vertical, while also accommodating a Classic Number 10 (two of them, actually).
If you want to learn more about them, I made a video which is linked below 👇
european football has spent the past fifteen years solving futbol like chess.
a generation of coaches optimized for pass completion, pressing triggers, territorial control, rest defense, and positional occupation.
the problem of this is that they optimize for what is measurable. depth, the willingness to attack space early, attempt the difficult pass, dribble past a defender, or deliberately create chaos, is a high variance play. it fails more often than it succeeds. if you evaluate players by completion rate, ball retention, or positional discipline, those actions look like mistakes. so they get coached out. eventually, everyone converges toward the same local optimum.
the game becomes increasingly legible. every team occupies similar spaces, presses in similar ways, builds from the back with similar patterns, and minimizes the same risks. systems become better at defeating other systems, but worse at dealing with players who refuse to behave like systems.
south american football never fully abandoned the duel as the fundamental unit of the game. the 1v1 remained sacred. so did the tactical foul, the unpredictable dribble, and the player willing to lose possession five times if the sixth breaks the match open. the objective was never simply to preserve structure, it was to create someone capable of destroying the opponent’s structure.
football is not won by completing the most passes. it is won by scoring more goals than the other team. those are related, but they are not the same objective.
this is the danger of optimizing proxies. when everyone optimizes the same measurements, they stop optimizing for victory itself. they optimize for looking efficient.
italy may have been the first major european football culture to lose part of its identity this way. its historical advantage was never athletic superiority or perfect positional play. it was tactical asymmetry, unpredictability, and an instinct for making matches uncomfortable. as italian football converged toward the same coaching model as the rest of europe, it gradually surrendered the qualities that had made it different.
the broader lesson extends well beyond football. every optimization process eventually risks becoming self-defeating. metrics become targets. proxies replace objectives. variance is mistaken for error. the outliers capable of breaking the system disappear because the system itself learns to eliminate them.
💊About Éderson.
-a detailed report of the player’s strengths, weaknesses, and tendencies in and out of possession, how he can fit into the team tactically, and more.
🔗: https://t.co/3WOtcPw5A3
enjoy!
kindly retweet / share🤍.
🚨a thoroughly detailed analysis of momentum and the manipulation of it; physical, technical, and mental determinants of 1v1 ability; strategies in 1v1s from both attacking and defending perspectives, and more.
enjoy!
🔗:https://t.co/l3LI2eR6PR
kindly retweet/share.
❤️.
Yep, we’re going to have to deal with this tradeoff for the last four games. We’re playing more zonal in the high press & the mid block, mostly to protect the centre and open up bigger spaces off the ball to attack (which all the attackers suit better). He’s adapting to the players qualities a touch to extract that extra 15/20%.
Long-term, it’ll be more of a concern and I think the coaches will all know that regardless or not if Carrick gets the job but I think the best thing is that; we’re in UCL next season, morale is high, we’re in a position of strength, the squad seems to have a nice feel to it. The foundations have been laid.
Next steps come in that out of possession approach, building the squad for UCL football and most importantly of all, identifying the best players for our needs this summer. This has to be where the focus goes, even over the coach for me. Give the coach the tools.
I’m buzzing with the job Carrick’s done, to be honest. Textbook caretaker job.
Just seen the section of @AliceTalksFooty debating with @Carra23 on tactico vs pundit and the modern day of ‘media’ and analysis.
Appreciate the kind words. Feel that both are completely right, a human element is often missed in this new age of analysis, it’s partly why I’ll never publicly slander players in a world they get battered left right and centre, they’re humans. It also becomes OVERLY analysed. Sometimes (most of the time) one team just has better quality, not every game is won by the coach.
The game is becoming very saturated (me included) in this genre of football content too, it’s often about being first than it is having the best quality of piece on the next big tactic or coach. I guess that’s the balance I’m trying to strike at the Overlap atm. But it is getting much harder, and I’m happy for all the people who follow through with the opportunities in the field, there are some insane levels you can go to with a phone, a mic & a platform.
MNF still remains the best out there though, for good reason. They’re looking for what no one has picked up on, they aren’t following the social media narrative, they remain top of the pack because of the detail and production level. That’s the platinum level of analysis.
Interesting convo, great video too, what Zac is doing with the channel is great. Giving fans the platform to debate with the best in the business.
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Let me know if I'm wrong.