Nicole Danielle 🥥 🌴

Socially conscious global citizen, traveler, politico. I love looking at election data! @onthegonicole at

[Nicole Danielle 🥥 🌴 @OnTheGoNicole]

@stphnfwlr To be clear I think foreign gov AI fuckery is just as likely. But this is not just randomly happening this way. Something one way or another is not right and we shouldn’t just write it off

[Nicole Danielle 🥥 🌴 @OnTheGoNicole]

@stphnfwlr The reports of weird things happening to people personally this time are soooooo widespread on social I’m 100% convinced that EITHER a foreign government is using AI to sow discord and division OR something had to have happened if it’s not that. TikTok is INSANE with stories

[Taniel @Taniel]

What to watch for people wanting to track the House: Dems have a *very* narrow path to 218 that’d entail

—staying ahead in all uncalled CDs where they now lead (starting with CA21, CA49, CA47, ME02, OH9)

—flipping GOP leads in 6 of 7 of: AKAL, AZ06, CO08, CA13, CA27, CA41, CA45

[Taniel @Taniel]

Where House stands, sprinkling my assessment with current count & AP/network calls:

GOP currently leads in 222 seats, Dems in 213.

Some leads still fragile. Staying somewhat conservative, I'd say 215 seats quite likely to be GOP, & 209 quite likely to be Dem. That leaves 11.

[Nicole Danielle 🥥 🌴 @OnTheGoNicole]

@BrendanKeefe That alone is 39k, and then whatever came in today too!

[Nicole Danielle 🥥 🌴 @OnTheGoNicole]

@BrendanKeefe There were 292k EARLY/absentee votes in Dekalb and sos is only showing 253k

[Brendan Keefe - Atlanta News First @BrendanKeefe]

Georgia vote still outstanding (based on expectations)
Gwinnett 341,000
Chatham 87,000
Fulton 45,000
Cobb 31,000
Henry 24,000
Muskogee 19,000
DeKalb 16,000
10:14pm

[Nicole Danielle 🥥 🌴 @OnTheGoNicole]

In early vote in GA red counties early coming in redder than 2020 vote. Blue early are coming in bluer than 2020. It's gonna be a wild ride

[Nicole Danielle 🥥 🌴 @OnTheGoNicole]

Y’all need to chill. Pics of lines or not lines at one random polling location in a city tell you nothing. Relax we’ll know way more way earlier than normal tonight

[Gabriel Sterling @GabrielSterling]

If you mailed in your absentee ballot, please go to My Voter Page at https://t.co/3zcKYx7Ru5 to make VERIFY your ballot has been received. If you do not see it in your record as received, PLEASE GO VOTE at your polling location to protect your vote. This is your last opportunity.

[stephen fowler @stphnfwlr]

Whoa - Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger says more than half a million people have already voted in Georgia as of noon.

That's on track to potentially have ~1.2 million Election Day votes. #gapol

[Nicole Danielle 🥥 🌴 @OnTheGoNicole]

I have a pretty strong suspicion that after the dust settles on the data in this election, one of the really big stories is going to be that accross the country, white men ended up voting for Kamala Harris at much much higher percentages than anyone predicted 🇺🇸 #ElectionDay

[Nicole Danielle 🥥 🌴 @OnTheGoNicole]

@sweetser_kyle @AccountableGOP Thank you!!

[Nicole Danielle 🥥 🌴 @OnTheGoNicole]

@goshofar Interesting data point. Not sure which candidate that benefits - will be interesting to see!

[Nicole Danielle 🥥 🌴 @OnTheGoNicole]

I’ve spent a LOT of time in the early vote data in Georgia and here’s my takeaway: there is a LOT of reason for both campaigns to be optimistic about it. And to be nervous. Let me show you why with models on if the vote in by county broke exactly like recent major races in GA- 🧵

[Nicole Danielle 🥥 🌴 @OnTheGoNicole]

@goshofar But if you’d like to know:

Hispanic is at 3.2% of vote share, Asian is at 2.8% of vote share, and “Other” at 9.5%. I don’t have the historical numbers for comparison unfortunately, and haven’t dug deeper for these groups

[Nicole Danielle 🥥 🌴 @OnTheGoNicole]

@goshofar Very small portion of the electorate in GA - wont be able to tell much from it TBH

[Nicole Danielle 🥥 🌴 @OnTheGoNicole]

Oh one more quick note all of this math was through Friday 11/1 and end of early vote. A few more absentees have been added since then and haven’t been calculated in.

[Nicole Danielle 🥥 🌴 @OnTheGoNicole]

Who it’s good for so far depends on if it breaks like 2020, 2022 Senate, or 2022 Governor. Because with what’s in now, we could have a razor thin nail biter OR we could have a pretty significant advantage for either. There’s recent precedent for all of these possibilities! 16/end