The Onchain Edge

Independent, data-led UFC analysis. Fight data, tape study, modelled probabilities and betting angles. Insights supported by @FX1Sports.

[The Onchain Edge @OnchainEdgeMMA]

Petr Yan getting through Merab's early pressure and finding his offence late was the UFC 333 read.

Seeing that unfold is why I enjoy this work. At The Onchain Edge, we use the data to understand how a fight might be won, not just who wins it.

[The Onchain Edge @OnchainEdgeMMA]

In rounds 3, 4 and 5 of his first fight with Petr Yan, Merab Dvalishvili landed 90 significant strikes.

In the rematch, he landed 93. Yan, however, went from 44 to 101.

That leap in Yan's late output is what interests me ahead of their UFC 333 trilogy.

[The Onchain Edge @OnchainEdgeMMA]

THE MODEL: Dvalishvili 60.7%.
EDGE PICK: Yan by narrow decision.

I'm backing Yan to get through the early grind and bring that late offence again.

Your turn. Pick the full card in Edge Games:
https://t.co/dJdl5VC330

[The Onchain Edge @OnchainEdgeMMA]

In rounds 3, 4 and 5 of his first fight with Petr Yan, Merab Dvalishvili landed 90 significant strikes.

In the rematch, he landed 93. Yan, however, went from 44 to 101.

That leap in Yan's late output is what interests me ahead of their UFC 333 trilogy.

[The Onchain Edge @OnchainEdgeMMA]

We've now seen Merab keep Yan occupied early without getting takedowns, and Yan produce far more offence later than he did in 2023.

Neither guarantees a repeat. Can Merab keep that early grind going for longer, or will Yan find the same late success?

[The Onchain Edge @OnchainEdgeMMA]

Full card breakdown: https://t.co/fJpsGMEEU5

[The Onchain Edge @OnchainEdgeMMA]

Malott can bank rounds. Buckley can change everything with one clean shot.
Can Malott stay attached after his first takedown attempt, or does Buckley get the reset?
All 13 fights and our final picks on YouTube. Link below.

[The Onchain Edge @OnchainEdgeMMA]

Usman and Brady showed how to beat Buckley. Malott still has to prove he can do it.

He can win minutes with wrestling. One bad entry could still wreck his night.

THE MODEL: Buckley 61.5%
FINAL PICK: Buckley by KO/TKO
Who's backing Malott?

[The Onchain Edge @OnchainEdgeMMA]

Watch what happens AFTER Camilo gets inside.

Does Herbert find space again? Or does Camilo keep him crowded and working?

That's where this fight gets interesting.

Herbert brings the 7.5 inches. Camilo gets to test how well he can use them.

[The Onchain Edge @OnchainEdgeMMA]

Jai Herbert: 77-inch reach.
Matheus Camilo: 69.5.

Seven and a half inches for Camilo to get past this weekend.

Sounds like a huge edge. So we checked 6,504 UFC fights.

EDGE SIGNALS: how much do long arms actually win you?

[The Onchain Edge @OnchainEdgeMMA]

Herbert's job: make Camilo pay for the first step in, then reset before Camilo can work.

Camilo's job: get past that first shot and stay close enough to land, clinch or wrestle.

Every clean reset gives Herbert another chance to put those inches to work.

[The Onchain Edge @OnchainEdgeMMA]

Matheus Camilo averages 4.16 takedowns per 15 minutes.

Jai Herbert has an EIGHT-INCH reach advantage.

The Model makes Camilo a 65.8% favourite, but we're taking Herbert by decision.

Can Camilo consistently close that distance without getting punished?