Macro Banana

Breakeven FX trader condensing macro themes into terrible and often wrong short-term trades

Loose conviction, strongly held with maximum leverage

[Macro Banana @OneOutx2]

"Top reasons for disapproval included cannot hope for much and poor policies."

Mrs Watanabe is not pleased from being consistently lied to by Katayama 🤭

Jokes aside, they need to turn the ship quickly otherwise factions within LDP will smell blood & try for another upheaval

[Macro Banana @OneOutx2]

USDJPY slowly climbing its way to Mrs Watanabe stop loss at 163... 🐌 🐌 🐌 💥

[Macro Banana @OneOutx2]

That's one way to make sure Lula gets re-elected.

[Secretary Marco Rubio @SecRubio]

Today, President Trump directed USTR to impose a 25% tariff on most Brazilian imports. Let there be no confusion about why: President Lula and his government have not negotiated with the US in good faith.

His economic policies are bad for Americans and bad for Brazilians. For the past year, Lula has put his own ego ahead of making a deal for the welfare of the Brazilian people, and these tariffs are the price for that.

[Macro Banana @OneOutx2]

Does this mean tariff war us back on?

[unusual_whales @unusual_whales]

Trump will allege Chinese meddling in U.S. elections during his primetime speech tomorrow, per CBS

[Macro Banana @OneOutx2]

@RhoRider Summer doldrums + PTSD from being long oil during Apr probably a big factor.

[Macro Banana @OneOutx2]

@stockdatamarket We likely need to clear Jul OPEX before we see any fireworks in the equity markets

[Macro Banana @OneOutx2]

Its going to be one giant candlestick at 163 where i presume where most of these stop losses are at.

[Yuto Haga ⚽️ @Yuto_Headline]

*個人投資家のドル売越額が過去最大、日本政府の円買い介入を警戒＝Bloomberg

*MRS WATANABE BUILDS RECORD DOLLAR SHORT ON INTERVENTION FEARS: BBG

[Macro Banana @OneOutx2]

Bridges & power plants.
Guys, we know what this means. Peace deal on Friday.

[Rapid Response 47 @RapidResponse47]

.@POTUS on Iran: "We're going to hit them very hard tonight. We're going to hit them very hard tomorrow night. We're going to hit them very hard the night after... We're going to knock out all their power plants, we're going to knock out all their bridges, unless they get to the table and negotiate."

[Macro Banana @OneOutx2]

@Brad_Setser The GPIF & NISA JGB comments seem to be targeting yields rather than FX; 30yr crossing 4% seemed to some redline

The longer ¥ stays ard 160+ with MoFJ absent, the more I feel it's a feature not a bug of Sanae-nomics

[Macro Banana @OneOutx2]

Even with the Iran war slow escalating, USDJPY gap filling the super soft CPI print is not a great look for ¥ bulls.

[Macro Banana @OneOutx2]

@Macrobysunil With markets close to ATH, employment strong and CPI coming in soft today, Warsh can be as hawkish as needed to gain credibility without in fact needing to do anything.

[Macro Banana @OneOutx2]

@MehtaDivya37757 GPIF and NISA JGBs incentives hinted during Tokyo AM
Followed by super soft US inflation at PM and still USDJPY at 162.

🗑 🚮 🔥

[Macro Banana @OneOutx2]

@Maciek_2005 Ueda has been really conservative after his first surprise hike nearly blew up the markets. But lets see! Never say never I have learnt!

[Macro Banana @OneOutx2]

Can someone wake MoFJ up for their so called stealth intervention?

Kanda-san would have been all over this like a bad rash.

[Macro Banana @OneOutx2]

@Maciek_2005 Very unlikely a surprise BOJ hike, non of the domestic houses think a hike is coming

1️⃣ Intervention
2️⃣ Joint intervention
3️⃣ GPIF repatriation
4️⃣ Anything else
5️⃣ BOJ hike

Is probably Takaichi preference to address weak yen if she cares

[Macro Banana @OneOutx2]

@Maciek_2005 Yes seems like it. They passed on weak NFP, 4th July and today.

Just seems abit silly now that oil nudging back towards $90 and Iran reignited to pass on a good day to create some buffer 🤷‍♂️

[Macro Banana @OneOutx2]

@BeSomebodyFX Yes but this print would put pause to all the hawks and give time for the task forces to form with the likely outcome of suggesting AI = productivity = lower future inflation and some new CPI matrix

[Macro Banana @OneOutx2]

Interesting move across US yields and EURUSD into the upcoming CPI, someone had a sneak peak?

[Yuto Haga ⚽️ @Yuto_Headline]

本邦20年債入札、募入額は約7,000億円。JGB市場で存在感の大きいMUMSSでも555億円の落札に留まるなか、市場筋によれば「かつてないほどの不明玉（落札者不明）」が観測された模様。直前の片山財務相と上野厚労相のGPIF発言も踏まえるとやや怪しい入札結果に。一部では「年金が買った」との噂も。